How Bad Is the Detroit Lions Run Defense

In 1976, the New England Patriots rushed for a team NFL record 2,948 yards. Offensive lineman John Hannah (maybe the best offensive lineman in history, and still the best player in Patriots history) led the way for a team that averaged an almost unfathomable 210 yards per game (they played 14 games that season). The Detroit Lions are allowing 207.7 yards per game. That means, for the lay person, that if a team got to play the Detroit Lions 16 times (we should all be so lucky!), there is a legitimate shot at that team rushing for 3,323 yards. If you figure the #1 RB gets 60% of his teams rushing yardage (not sure on the actual rate, I think it's a good enough guess), your fantasy runner could put up about 1,994 yards over a sixteen game schedule. If you have a team with more of a feature back, like Buffalo, or San Francisco, they could easily challenge Dickerson's all time single season record.

That is why I said no matter what, start ANY running back you have against the Lions, particularly when he is as much the focus of his team's offense as Matt Forte is. If you plug in his expected output of 60% of 207.7, you get 125 yards or so. THEN you add in any TDs, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. I'm not going to project the fantasy game of the season (AP still gets to run against them), but is 25 points unreasonable? Absolutely not.