Since I am acting-interim GM of the Lions, I have started posting on some moves that I would make were I in charge of the team. What I have not discussed, is the motive behind those moves, or the over-arching philosophy that breeds my thinking. In a couple of quick points, I will try to explain how I would build a football team, were I an actual GM.
1) Successful teams, for the most part, are built from the lines out. Look at the Browns of last year. After years of terrible, cover your eyes offensive production, they sign Eric Steinbach and draft Joe Thomas, two very good offensive linemen, and lo, they become a top five offense, and make Derek Anderson (!?) into a legit-looking NFL quarterback. They also resurrected Jamal Lewis' career, leading hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners to draft him probably four rounds before he should have been taken. Similarly, look at what the Giants defensive line did in the Super Bowl, or what the line of the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucaneers did to the Raiders in their Super Bowl win. Offense in football is ENTIRELY about time. If your QB has 9 seconds to throw, and your running back has time to get to his lane, or reverse his field, you are going to put up a ton of points, and any QB and RB combo that can do the same to you will result in you giving up a ton of points. A strong offensive line buys time, and a strong defensive line costs the offense time. I remember reading something in The Sporting News how Rich Gannon had on average 1.7 seconds (or something) to throw. You show me a QB that can be successful with 1.7 seconds to take the snap, drop back 3-7 steps, scan the defense, choose the best option, windup and get the ball there, and I'll show you a guy playing Rookie mode in Madden.
This is why I thought the Jake Long was the right #1 pick in the draft this year, and why I would have drafted Joe Thomas #1 last year. Were I the Lions GM then, I would have grabbed Joe Thomas over Calvin Johnson, and were I Al Davis' corpse, I would have grabbed Thomas over JaMarcus Rusell (actually, were I Al Davis, I might draft a kicker before Russell, but I digress.) I think drafting an lineman is ALMOST never a bad idea, since you gain depth, even if the player doesn't start for you right away. At any given point, there are 8-9 linemen on the field (offense and defense), representing 36% of ALL players, but's its always the skill positions that are considered the best picks.
2) I would almost NEVER draft a running back in the first round. Keeping with my philosophy that successful teams start with their line, I also view the running back position as interchangeable. Put an average running back (Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Sammy Morris, Shaun Alexander of 2006) behind a good offensive line, and you get 1,000 yards. Put an elite running back behind a sieve offensive line (Stephen Jackson last year springs to mind), and they will produce, but will not be game changers. Add to that the fact that due to wear and tear, running backs have a MUCH shorter life span than other skill positions, and I would almost always pass on selecting a running back in the first round.
3) I would NEVER draft a wide receiver in the first round. This isn't an overreaction to the failures of my predecessor drafting WR's something like 74 years in a row. WR, more than any other position besides QB, comes with a steep learning curve. Calvin Johnson, widely considered one of the most pro-ready WRs to ever come out of the draft, had less than 50 catches last year, which was considered a GOOD year for rookie WRs. I think the sky is the limit for CJ, and I have already labelled him a core player, but great WRs don't make teams Super Bowl champs on their own. History is littered with WRs that have been picked late, taken some time to develop, and become superstars. Look at today's top WR list;
Terrell Owens (3rd rounder)
Anquan Boldin (2nd rounder(did have monster rookie year, I know))
Brandon Marshall (4th rounder)
Marques Colston (243rd rounder)
Reggie Wayne (LATE 1st rounder(not saying you CAN'T find a good player there))
Is that everyone, of course not, and did I selectively chose my players? Of course! But for every Randy Moss, or Larry Fitzgerald one tosses out, you can come right back with a Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Charles Rogers or Michael Clayton (another flash in the pan). First round WRs demand huge contracts, and are usually non-productive their first 2-3 years. You get better return out of the fat-boy positions. Look, obviously, if I felt the next Jerry Rice was there, I would draft him, but I would choose a guy I thought would be the next John Hannah over him, if he were there at the same spot too.
4) QB arm strength is wildly overrated. Scouts seem to have a nerdish fascination with the size of a mans biceps. A pitcher than can throw 100mph will get MANY more chances than a guy who clocks out at 88. A QB that can throw the ball through the uprights from his knees will get more chances than a guy who can't. A guy taken at 21-23 is not who he will be, but who he IS. Players can develop arm strength (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning), but they can not develop the ability to stay cool under pressure. I would take Chad Pennington over almost any other QB in the league, and could get a prospect like him a lot later than a guy like JaMarcus Russell or Kyle Boller.
5) You should play the system that suits your players, and sign the players that suits your system. Jason David was a serviceable Tampa 2 corner in Indianapolis, and a complete and total disaster in New Orleans. Jonathan Vilma was a tackling machine when the Jets played the 4-3, not so much when they stood one of those linemen up. On day 1, you need to play with the system that best suits your players, and over time, you need to find players that play best in the system you intend to run. That is, I think, one of the keys to the Patriots success, is that they bring in guys with limitations, and then don't ask them to do things they are limited in. They don't ask Junior Seau to follow tight ends all over the field. They don't ask Richard Seymour to become Dwight Freeney. The Pats win because they put their players in the right situations, and don't try to force square pegs into round holes.
Those are some simple rules I think every team should follow, and how I would build a team.
Friday, September 26, 2008
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