Friday, September 19, 2008

Week 3 WR Rankings

Guys,

Here is my take on the WR options for Week 3. WR's are MUCH harder to predict than RB's and QB's, I think. Look at last week's Arizona-Miami game. Larry Fitzgerald couldn't be covered, and he finished with 6 catches for 150 yards or so. Anquan Boldin ALSO couldn't be covered, and he got the 3 TD's in the deal. Did anyone think that Anquan Boldin played 2 or 3 times better in that game than Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is the better receiver, as good as Boldin is, and one week's touchdown bonanza shouldn't alter that fact.

1) Terrell Owens
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Plaxico Burress
4) Calvin Johnson
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Larry Fitzgerald
7) Randy Moss
8) Andre Johnson
9) Anquan Boldin
10) Steve Smith
11) Roy Williams
12) Santonio Holmes
13) Donald Driver
14) T.J Houshmandzadeh
15) Dwayne Bowe
16) Braylon Edwards
17) Wes Welker
18) Greg Jennings
19) Hines Ward
20) Jerricho Cotchery
21) Torry Holt
22) Chad Johnson
23) Roddy White
24) DeSean Jackson
25) Santana Moss
26) Isaac Bruce
27) Eddie Royal
28) Anthony Gonzalez
29) Patrick Crayton
30) Matt Jones

Greg Jennings v Donald Driver is a classic case of the situation I illustrated above. Last year, Driver had over 80 catches, Jennings has 50, but since Jennings had the harder to predict touchdowns, he is ranked more highly than Driver? I still think Driver is the better receiver, and this ranking reflects that. Owens will be the #1 WR every week until someone proves they can supplant him. Brandon Marshall shouldn't have 18 catches this week (that's really going out on a limb!), but he, Royal, Stokely and Scheffler could combine for 30. Calvin Johnson has been unbelievable these first two weeks, and I think Nate Clements will be covering Roy Williams, hence the large disparity between their rankings. Randy Moss could get open against Miami, but I don't think New England will need to take that many chances down field. He could serve as the league's best decoy for the second straight week. Steve Smith draws a dream matchup this week, and could be eager to earn his teammates forgiveness, other than that guy he punched out in the preseason. Braylon Edwards has been the victim of a bad matchup and bad weather. He drops a lot of passes, but he is freakishly talented, and Baltimore CAN'T be run on. Someone has to catch all those passes from J.T O'Sullivan, and I think it's going to be a combo of Isaac Bruce and Vernon Davis. Davis is a good blocker, and Detroit doesn't have the pass rush that would require Davis to stay in and block against. He could be free to roam for 8-12 targets this week. Marvin Harrison doesn't make my top 30, since I think that Gonzalez has ALREADY supplanted him as Peyton's favorite guy not named Reggie Wayne.

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