With more than a neutral interest in the Jets-Dolphins tilt this past Sunday, I found myself for the second time this decade cheering for a Brett Favre led team playing in New York in week 17, in order to get the Pats the division title. For the second time, Brett Favre, as is his wont, played like some bearded Kyle Boller, and made the Pats the best of the rest, instead of one of the hopefuls.
One thing that the Fantasy Men could not fathom, was the complete disappearance of the Jets running game. On the day, the Jets handed off to their running backs 20 times, which does not seem low, until you realize that Brett Favre was called upon in a big game, to throw the ball 40 times. I am not one of those people that thinks that magically, if you get to 30 runs, you will be gifted 50 points and win the game, but there is something to be said for maintaining a committment to the running game, a committment that was lacking from the Jets. Since the middle of the season, when the media ripped Eric Mangina for not passing in the red zone, it seems that he has progressively eschewed (what verbose word usage!) the running game, in favor of placing his fortunes on Brett Favre's ailing and decrepit shoulder. In a related note, Eric Mangina is presently seeking employment.
In the first quarter, the Jets ran 3 times, not including one play called back for holding. In the second quarter, they ran only 4 times. In the third, the ball was run 7 times, and in the fourth, 6 more.
The Jets had to have known what we have discovered in hindsight, that Brett Favre was hurt, and Mangina should have been able to see with his own eyes that Favre was not as effective as he should have been, to be throwing the ball 40 times a game.
Sometimes, doing the simple things can win you games. Running on first down gets you into more manageable second downs. Running on third down when you know you are going for it on fourth down shortens the distance for you. The running game is what you do to salt away a win, but there is a place for it throughout the game as well.
The Jets offensive line has been one of the teams strengths this year, and their failure to turn to their ground game in their must win week 17 game was a large factor in their loss.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Boldin or Colston; Revisited
On November 13th, I posited that I would rather have Marques Colston than Anquan Boldin for the duration of the fantasy season. With the ending of 95% of fantasy leagues this past weekend, it is time to revisit my "prediction".
Since that prediction, the players starts are as follows;
Boldin
40 Catches
432 Yards
1 Touchdown
10 Rushing Yards
3 Fumbles / 2 Fumbles Lost
This equates to about 46 fantasy points, assuming no fractionals, and no points for fumbles not lost.
Colston
28 Catches
415 Yards
4 Touchdowns
This equates to 47 points, assuming scoring above. Note that Marques Colston does not have a single rushing or passing attempt in his entire career, which is strange for a guy that has been basically his teams #1 WR from Day One.
I guess I can claim victory here, especially given the extreme negative reaction I received around the office when touting my theory.
Since that prediction, the players starts are as follows;
Boldin
40 Catches
432 Yards
1 Touchdown
10 Rushing Yards
3 Fumbles / 2 Fumbles Lost
This equates to about 46 fantasy points, assuming no fractionals, and no points for fumbles not lost.
Colston
28 Catches
415 Yards
4 Touchdowns
This equates to 47 points, assuming scoring above. Note that Marques Colston does not have a single rushing or passing attempt in his entire career, which is strange for a guy that has been basically his teams #1 WR from Day One.
I guess I can claim victory here, especially given the extreme negative reaction I received around the office when touting my theory.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Kevin Seifert Joins the Team
Since my adoption of the Lions, pro-bono of course, numerous commentators have decided to glom on to my fame and renown, and have taken it upon themselves to assist me in my unenviable task of rebuilding the Detroit Kitty-Cats. The latest example is Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com. For once, most of this column actually makes sense, but since a large part of his advice is on the operational end of things, only a smattering of things applies to our brief. Kevin's points, and my rejoinders, follow;
"3. Put Rod Marinelli out of his misery. Marinelli might be a good football coach, but no one can lose so many games in a such a short period while maintaining credibility inside or outside the organization. I know, Marinelli hasn't been blessed with the NFL's best personnel. But it's hard to convince anyone you're moving forward with a coach who has lost 36 of 46 games over a three-year tenure."
I have said, offline, innumerable times, that we live in a society that worships leadership and accountability. This is a good thing. Part of the reason, regardless of your politics, that George Bush's approval ratings nose-dived at the end of 2005 is that he was perceived as failing to lead the rescue/evacuation/clean-up surrounding Rita and Katrina. Fair or not, his administration and party have paid a great price for this failure. It is oft the same in professional football. We assume Bill Belichick is a legendary coach because of his wins and losses, but we have NO WAY of knowing how he would do with this Lions team.
For my part, I am inclined to keep Marinelli for another season. Coaching stability is a plus, allowing teams to develop a sense of consistency from player evaluation, all the way through to practice methods. The Washington Redskins have spent enormous sums of money and draft picks this century, constantly churning and turning over their rosters and coaching staff. And what have they shown for their millions? One playoff win?
No, Rod Marinelli MAY be part of the problem, but we are determined to give him another year to show that he can address his shortcomings.
Listen, NO coach will make the playoffs with this roster next year (unless they get to move to the NFC west), so bringing in another guy to install another system doesn't help the young players that are on this team, and that will be added during this off season. This is a legitimate three year rebuilding process. If Marinelli can't hack it with an improving roster, then we cut our losses, and give the new guy a window to work in, but I can't approve of firing coaches who struggle to win with rosters composed of guys that might not start in Division II college ball.
"7. Rebuild both lines. The Lions, especially on defense, get pushed around on the line of scrimmage far too often for an NFL team. It's the most basic requirement in football: You must be able to move people out of your way. The Lions can't, at least not often enough. (Evidence: They rank No. 32 in the NFL in rush defense and No. 31 in rush offense). This is a difficult task and could take several drafts to complete. But if they focus on nothing else, the Lions must address this physical mismatch."
Amen, 100% agreement. Almost every mock draft I have seen has the Lions drafting Matt Stafford 1st overall. This would not happen were I running this team. We may trade out of the 1st, we may keep it, we may light ourselves on fire on the stage, but we will NOT be drafting an offensive "skill position" player in the first round.
"8. Because they need such a talent influx on the line and elsewhere, the Lions should trade down in the 2009 draft and perhaps in 2010 as well. For now, focus on numbers rather than blue-chip possibilities. Trades don't happen too often at the highest levels of the draft, but the expected class of 2009 quarterbacks should entice someone to make a deal."
There is wisdom in trading down, but for every seller you need a buyer. The Lions SHOULD try and trade down, but if no one wants the first pick, we have to use it, but the thinking behind this pick is sound.
"9. Establish a practice of drafting safely at the top end of the draft and take your risks in lower rounds. The Lions are a case study in the impact of missing consistently with high, and at times, risky draft choices. (See Rogers, Charles; Harrington, Joey; and Williams, Mike). If you have the proverbial choice between Jake Long and Darren McFadden, take Long. No need to swing for the fence when average is a big improvement."
This is a no duh! type statement, but is is also an example of hind-sight being 20-20. Take a look at this search on ESPN.com ( http://search.espn.go.com/charles-rogers/mel-kiper-jr./4294801923 ) The search is full of praise from Mel Kiper for the Lions adding an "impact player" in Charles Rogers, and saying that whatever team added Mike Williams was going to get a "great player". The Lions got both, and they both suck. Wide receiver is a dangerous position to pick at the top of the draft (Football Outsiders has done yeoman's work on this subject), but to pretend that there was some universal consensus that these guys would be bums is completely farcical. They were RISKIER picks than other guys available, but no one could know how BAD they would turn out to be. Imagine an alternate universe, where Joey Harrington is throwing to the first quadruplet receivers to ever go over 1,000 yards in a season, and their offense is putting up 45 points a game. Not too unrealistic, IF those picks worked out. I didn't think they were good picks at the time, but the criticism was positional, not player skill based.
"10. Resist the temptation to draft a blue-chip quarterback immediately. The Lions are a year or more away from being the 2008 Falcons, who selected Matt Ryan No. 3 overall and inserted him immediately into what surprisingly turned out to be a playoff-caliber lineup. They should use their picks to create a good environment for any young quarterback they eventually draft. These days, teams can't draft a blue-chip quarterback and sit him on the bench for three years. And remember, for every Ryan there is a Harrington."
Poor Joseph Harrington gets no love. A one-time bust has turned into an above-replacement level quarterback. Maybe he looked bad because he was throwing to fat receivers, with no running backs and a Swiss cheese offensive line? Agree with the logic, but the blame may be misdirected.
"14. Make it a priority to find a capable No. 2 receiver opposite of Calvin Johnson. We've seen how Johnson can beat a double team by simply reaching over smaller defenders. But the Lions could benefit more from that double coverage. A competent No. 2 receiver, or even a top pass-catching tight end, could clean up while playing next to Johnson. A good coach could build his offense around the idea that he'll always have a mismatch somewhere in the passing game."
A decent #2 WR is always a bonus in your offense, but young WR's take time to develop. In the off season, I will be exploring the possibility of either a trade, or RFA plays. I think, if Cleveland is selling, Braylon Edwards could be a great option on the backside of the field from Calvin Johnson, scaring the hell out of safeties, and clearing out the short field for CJ and the tight ends.
"3. Put Rod Marinelli out of his misery. Marinelli might be a good football coach, but no one can lose so many games in a such a short period while maintaining credibility inside or outside the organization. I know, Marinelli hasn't been blessed with the NFL's best personnel. But it's hard to convince anyone you're moving forward with a coach who has lost 36 of 46 games over a three-year tenure."
I have said, offline, innumerable times, that we live in a society that worships leadership and accountability. This is a good thing. Part of the reason, regardless of your politics, that George Bush's approval ratings nose-dived at the end of 2005 is that he was perceived as failing to lead the rescue/evacuation/clean-up surrounding Rita and Katrina. Fair or not, his administration and party have paid a great price for this failure. It is oft the same in professional football. We assume Bill Belichick is a legendary coach because of his wins and losses, but we have NO WAY of knowing how he would do with this Lions team.
For my part, I am inclined to keep Marinelli for another season. Coaching stability is a plus, allowing teams to develop a sense of consistency from player evaluation, all the way through to practice methods. The Washington Redskins have spent enormous sums of money and draft picks this century, constantly churning and turning over their rosters and coaching staff. And what have they shown for their millions? One playoff win?
No, Rod Marinelli MAY be part of the problem, but we are determined to give him another year to show that he can address his shortcomings.
Listen, NO coach will make the playoffs with this roster next year (unless they get to move to the NFC west), so bringing in another guy to install another system doesn't help the young players that are on this team, and that will be added during this off season. This is a legitimate three year rebuilding process. If Marinelli can't hack it with an improving roster, then we cut our losses, and give the new guy a window to work in, but I can't approve of firing coaches who struggle to win with rosters composed of guys that might not start in Division II college ball.
"7. Rebuild both lines. The Lions, especially on defense, get pushed around on the line of scrimmage far too often for an NFL team. It's the most basic requirement in football: You must be able to move people out of your way. The Lions can't, at least not often enough. (Evidence: They rank No. 32 in the NFL in rush defense and No. 31 in rush offense). This is a difficult task and could take several drafts to complete. But if they focus on nothing else, the Lions must address this physical mismatch."
Amen, 100% agreement. Almost every mock draft I have seen has the Lions drafting Matt Stafford 1st overall. This would not happen were I running this team. We may trade out of the 1st, we may keep it, we may light ourselves on fire on the stage, but we will NOT be drafting an offensive "skill position" player in the first round.
"8. Because they need such a talent influx on the line and elsewhere, the Lions should trade down in the 2009 draft and perhaps in 2010 as well. For now, focus on numbers rather than blue-chip possibilities. Trades don't happen too often at the highest levels of the draft, but the expected class of 2009 quarterbacks should entice someone to make a deal."
There is wisdom in trading down, but for every seller you need a buyer. The Lions SHOULD try and trade down, but if no one wants the first pick, we have to use it, but the thinking behind this pick is sound.
"9. Establish a practice of drafting safely at the top end of the draft and take your risks in lower rounds. The Lions are a case study in the impact of missing consistently with high, and at times, risky draft choices. (See Rogers, Charles; Harrington, Joey; and Williams, Mike). If you have the proverbial choice between Jake Long and Darren McFadden, take Long. No need to swing for the fence when average is a big improvement."
This is a no duh! type statement, but is is also an example of hind-sight being 20-20. Take a look at this search on ESPN.com ( http://search.espn.go.com/charles-rogers/mel-kiper-jr./4294801923 ) The search is full of praise from Mel Kiper for the Lions adding an "impact player" in Charles Rogers, and saying that whatever team added Mike Williams was going to get a "great player". The Lions got both, and they both suck. Wide receiver is a dangerous position to pick at the top of the draft (Football Outsiders has done yeoman's work on this subject), but to pretend that there was some universal consensus that these guys would be bums is completely farcical. They were RISKIER picks than other guys available, but no one could know how BAD they would turn out to be. Imagine an alternate universe, where Joey Harrington is throwing to the first quadruplet receivers to ever go over 1,000 yards in a season, and their offense is putting up 45 points a game. Not too unrealistic, IF those picks worked out. I didn't think they were good picks at the time, but the criticism was positional, not player skill based.
"10. Resist the temptation to draft a blue-chip quarterback immediately. The Lions are a year or more away from being the 2008 Falcons, who selected Matt Ryan No. 3 overall and inserted him immediately into what surprisingly turned out to be a playoff-caliber lineup. They should use their picks to create a good environment for any young quarterback they eventually draft. These days, teams can't draft a blue-chip quarterback and sit him on the bench for three years. And remember, for every Ryan there is a Harrington."
Poor Joseph Harrington gets no love. A one-time bust has turned into an above-replacement level quarterback. Maybe he looked bad because he was throwing to fat receivers, with no running backs and a Swiss cheese offensive line? Agree with the logic, but the blame may be misdirected.
"14. Make it a priority to find a capable No. 2 receiver opposite of Calvin Johnson. We've seen how Johnson can beat a double team by simply reaching over smaller defenders. But the Lions could benefit more from that double coverage. A competent No. 2 receiver, or even a top pass-catching tight end, could clean up while playing next to Johnson. A good coach could build his offense around the idea that he'll always have a mismatch somewhere in the passing game."
A decent #2 WR is always a bonus in your offense, but young WR's take time to develop. In the off season, I will be exploring the possibility of either a trade, or RFA plays. I think, if Cleveland is selling, Braylon Edwards could be a great option on the backside of the field from Calvin Johnson, scaring the hell out of safeties, and clearing out the short field for CJ and the tight ends.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Really ESPN
Checking my player comments, in setting my lineup for my first playoff game this weekend, (bye week last week), I ran across this gem;
"Edwards (groin) missed practice for the second straight day Thursday and is unlikely to play Sunday against the Jets, according to the Bills' official site. "It's better, but he did not participate at all," said coach Dick Jauron.
Spin: If Edwards had more experience, Jauron might let him play if he was able to practice Friday, but the coach thinks rookies need Thursday and Friday practice, so it seems he's on the edge of naming J.P. Losman the starter for Week 15. If you're in a league with a Thursday lineup deadline, absolutely do not start Edwards."
I, and every other fantasy owner who pays attention to their team, though that Edwards was drafted LAST YEAR by the Buffalo Bills, in the third round, out of Stanford. Glad ESPN is paying attention to their own comments...
"Edwards (groin) missed practice for the second straight day Thursday and is unlikely to play Sunday against the Jets, according to the Bills' official site. "It's better, but he did not participate at all," said coach Dick Jauron.
Spin: If Edwards had more experience, Jauron might let him play if he was able to practice Friday, but the coach thinks rookies need Thursday and Friday practice, so it seems he's on the edge of naming J.P. Losman the starter for Week 15. If you're in a league with a Thursday lineup deadline, absolutely do not start Edwards."
I, and every other fantasy owner who pays attention to their team, though that Edwards was drafted LAST YEAR by the Buffalo Bills, in the third round, out of Stanford. Glad ESPN is paying attention to their own comments...
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