Shorthanded Results of Draft Success

I have been thinking, for some time, how teams success can be correlated to their success on Draft Day. I think a shorthanded way of looking at it can apply, in general cases;

1) If a team NEVER hits on draft picks (or very rarely), you get a crud team. The Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders of the last couple of years are good examples of this, and not coincidentally, are among the two worst franchises since 2002. Namdi Asomugha is obviously a GREAT player, and my pick for best defensive back in the NFL today, but by and large, these teams have whiffed time and again.

2) If a team makes solid picks in the first round, it will be competitive. The best example I can think of for first round drafting is probably San Diego, although there are extenuating circumstances to all of their picks. They have not yet made a Super Bowl in their run, but have mixed mostly good years in with some mediocre years. If your team JUST hits their first round picks, this is probably the ceiling. Note that I say San Diego, which is German for a whale's vagina, is the CEILING, since they have had some success in the later rounds.

3) If your team hits on half of their late round picks, you will have a dominant franchise. The best two examples are the Pats of 2000-2004 and the Colts of the last eight years. Everyone knows about Tom Brady, but lesser known picks have been very important to the teams run of dominance as well. Dan Koppen was a 5th round pick that started most of his rookie season. David Givens was a 7th round pick from Notre Dame that was a great possession receiver before he left New England and came down with Belichick's Revenge. Asante Samuel was a 4th round pick, yadi yadi yada. The Colts have similar success stories scattered around their roster. Teams that hit in the late rounds, in addition to hitting early, will compete for Super Bowls for longer windows than teams that mix booms and busts. A large part of the Pats weaknesses this year (aside from Brady obviously) is the paucity of players from the last three drafts. Note that the jury is still out on the Giants. Last years draft looks good, but I don't think Kevin Boss is as good as fans think he is, and we don't know if they will continue to build on their late round mining, or if it was a flash in the pan.

Notice that first and foremost, successful franchises are predicated on solid play from the QB position. In addition to my belief that a team should grab AT LEAST one offensive and defensive lineman per year, I don't think teams would be too amiss were they to DRAFT one QB every other year, and sign one rookie to the practice squad every other year. The Colts, for all their successes, have been quite lucky with Peyton Manning's health, and have nothing behind Jim Sorgi. Grooming young QBs in the system is a smart option that all teams can take advantage of.

Tooting My Own Horn

Not to brag, but since the "adoption" of the Detroit Lions by this blog, we have proposed two moves, trading Jon Kitna to see if Orlovsky is worth anything, and trading Roy Williams. The Lions must be readers, having, in the last week, traded Roy Williams to Dallas, and, attempted to trade Jon Kitna before placing him on IR, to see what they have in Orlovsky.

How Bad Is the Detroit Lions Run Defense

In 1976, the New England Patriots rushed for a team NFL record 2,948 yards. Offensive lineman John Hannah (maybe the best offensive lineman in history, and still the best player in Patriots history) led the way for a team that averaged an almost unfathomable 210 yards per game (they played 14 games that season). The Detroit Lions are allowing 207.7 yards per game. That means, for the lay person, that if a team got to play the Detroit Lions 16 times (we should all be so lucky!), there is a legitimate shot at that team rushing for 3,323 yards. If you figure the #1 RB gets 60% of his teams rushing yardage (not sure on the actual rate, I think it's a good enough guess), your fantasy runner could put up about 1,994 yards over a sixteen game schedule. If you have a team with more of a feature back, like Buffalo, or San Francisco, they could easily challenge Dickerson's all time single season record.

That is why I said no matter what, start ANY running back you have against the Lions, particularly when he is as much the focus of his team's offense as Matt Forte is. If you plug in his expected output of 60% of 207.7, you get 125 yards or so. THEN you add in any TDs, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. I'm not going to project the fantasy game of the season (AP still gets to run against them), but is 25 points unreasonable? Absolutely not.

Week 5 WR Rankings

Week 5 WRs;

1) Brandon Marshall
2) Terrell Owens
3) Larry Fitzgerald
4) Steve Smith
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Calvin Johnson
7) Andre Johnson
8) Greg Jennings
9) Santana Moss
10) T.J Houshmandzadeh
11) DeSean Jackson
12) Wes Welker
13) Randy Moss
14) Lee Evans
15) Roy Williams
16) Dwayne Bowe
17) Chris Chambers
18) Roddy White
19) Eddie Royal
20) Hines Ward
21) Lance Moore
22) Robert Meachem
23) Chad Johnson
24) Donald Driver
25) Antonio Bryant

Brandon Marshall's touchdown catch last week was incredible, and not to beat a dead horse, but this guy was available in the fourth round. You think Philadelphia or Seattle might like him right now? If I were a baseball coach, I would list Fitzgerald and Steve Smith as "Fitzy" and "Smitty", but I'm not, so they go by their Christian names with me. The brothers Johnson both represent their teams best options to attack opposing pass defenses, and I see them being pretty productive. DeSean Jackson is bucking the trend of rookie receivers, although I hope he doesn't deliberately fumble at the one yard line this week. Randy Moss is slipping lower and lower, as a Pats fan, this bugs me, as a non-Moss owner, I love it. Revenge game for Chris Chambers? Moore and Meachem will get plenty of looks from Brees, and certainly Meachem is capable of turning three looks into two catches for one hundred and seventy two yards. Donald Driver is not performing as I had hoped, he may be taking a vacation from these lists shortly.

Week 5 RB Rankings

Here are the rankings for RBs in week 5;

1) Matt Forte
2) LaDanian Tomlinson
3) Adrian Peterson
4) Joseph Addai
5) Marion Barber
6) Earnest Graham
7) Steve Slaton
8) Marshawn Lynch
9) Ryan Grant
10) Brandon Jacobs
11) Jonathan Stewart
12) Larry Johnson
13) Michael Turner
14) Ronnie Brown
15) Julius Jones
16) Chris Perry
17) Edgerrin James
18) Reggie Bush
19) Brian Westbrook
20) Maurice Jones-Drew
21) Mewelde Moore
22) Sammy Morris
23) DeAngelo Williams
24) Chris Johnson
25) Selvin Young

Matt Forte gets to run on the Detroit defense. At this point, I would be ranked #1 against them. I think Indy will get a hefty dose of Steve Slaton to attack that suddenly pitiful run defense. Johnathan Stewart has outperformed DeAngelo Williams in every game this year, but ESPN projects Williams to be the higher scorer. I don't. Ronnie Brown won't score 5 TDs, but he could easily get 12-14 points. Reggie Bush might have 19 carries for -3 yards, but should be able to catch a handful of passes and get some yards and a possible score off those. Sammy Morris is the RB in New England this week, I guess. Selvin Young is a riddle, wrapped inside an enigma. Is he the starter, or is Andre Hall? Does he get the red zone carries, or does Michael Pittman? Who knows...

Week 5 QB Rankings

Here are my rankings for the QBs in week 5;

1) Tony Romo
2) Philip Rivers
3) Drew Brees
4) Jay Cutler
5) Peyton Manning
6) Donovan McNabb
7) Kurt Warner
8) Aaron Rodgers*
9) Eli Manning
10) Jason Campbell
11) Brian Griese
12) Jon Kitna
13) Jake Delhomme
14) Trent Edwards
15) Gus Frerotte

Romo should put up the points that Derek Anderson was unable to last week against the Bungles secondary. Rivers would be #1, but I think LT is going to get alot of carries this week. Brees goes against the Minnesota pass defense, which so far is not being helped by the mega-deal for Jared Allen. Aaron Rodgers ranking is, of course, if healthy. I love Jason Campbell, but tough matchup on the road in Philly this week. He has yet to throw a pick, but it would be pretty impressive if he could continue that streak. That being said, he could get 40 throws, since that run defense is so tough. Gus Frerotte makes this list only because the New Orleans pass defense is so woeful. Next week he can sink back to the bottom of the barrel.