Shorthanded Results of Draft Success

I have been thinking, for some time, how teams success can be correlated to their success on Draft Day. I think a shorthanded way of looking at it can apply, in general cases;

1) If a team NEVER hits on draft picks (or very rarely), you get a crud team. The Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders of the last couple of years are good examples of this, and not coincidentally, are among the two worst franchises since 2002. Namdi Asomugha is obviously a GREAT player, and my pick for best defensive back in the NFL today, but by and large, these teams have whiffed time and again.

2) If a team makes solid picks in the first round, it will be competitive. The best example I can think of for first round drafting is probably San Diego, although there are extenuating circumstances to all of their picks. They have not yet made a Super Bowl in their run, but have mixed mostly good years in with some mediocre years. If your team JUST hits their first round picks, this is probably the ceiling. Note that I say San Diego, which is German for a whale's vagina, is the CEILING, since they have had some success in the later rounds.

3) If your team hits on half of their late round picks, you will have a dominant franchise. The best two examples are the Pats of 2000-2004 and the Colts of the last eight years. Everyone knows about Tom Brady, but lesser known picks have been very important to the teams run of dominance as well. Dan Koppen was a 5th round pick that started most of his rookie season. David Givens was a 7th round pick from Notre Dame that was a great possession receiver before he left New England and came down with Belichick's Revenge. Asante Samuel was a 4th round pick, yadi yadi yada. The Colts have similar success stories scattered around their roster. Teams that hit in the late rounds, in addition to hitting early, will compete for Super Bowls for longer windows than teams that mix booms and busts. A large part of the Pats weaknesses this year (aside from Brady obviously) is the paucity of players from the last three drafts. Note that the jury is still out on the Giants. Last years draft looks good, but I don't think Kevin Boss is as good as fans think he is, and we don't know if they will continue to build on their late round mining, or if it was a flash in the pan.

Notice that first and foremost, successful franchises are predicated on solid play from the QB position. In addition to my belief that a team should grab AT LEAST one offensive and defensive lineman per year, I don't think teams would be too amiss were they to DRAFT one QB every other year, and sign one rookie to the practice squad every other year. The Colts, for all their successes, have been quite lucky with Peyton Manning's health, and have nothing behind Jim Sorgi. Grooming young QBs in the system is a smart option that all teams can take advantage of.