With more than a neutral interest in the Jets-Dolphins tilt this past Sunday, I found myself for the second time this decade cheering for a Brett Favre led team playing in New York in week 17, in order to get the Pats the division title. For the second time, Brett Favre, as is his wont, played like some bearded Kyle Boller, and made the Pats the best of the rest, instead of one of the hopefuls.
One thing that the Fantasy Men could not fathom, was the complete disappearance of the Jets running game. On the day, the Jets handed off to their running backs 20 times, which does not seem low, until you realize that Brett Favre was called upon in a big game, to throw the ball 40 times. I am not one of those people that thinks that magically, if you get to 30 runs, you will be gifted 50 points and win the game, but there is something to be said for maintaining a committment to the running game, a committment that was lacking from the Jets. Since the middle of the season, when the media ripped Eric Mangina for not passing in the red zone, it seems that he has progressively eschewed (what verbose word usage!) the running game, in favor of placing his fortunes on Brett Favre's ailing and decrepit shoulder. In a related note, Eric Mangina is presently seeking employment.
In the first quarter, the Jets ran 3 times, not including one play called back for holding. In the second quarter, they ran only 4 times. In the third, the ball was run 7 times, and in the fourth, 6 more.
The Jets had to have known what we have discovered in hindsight, that Brett Favre was hurt, and Mangina should have been able to see with his own eyes that Favre was not as effective as he should have been, to be throwing the ball 40 times a game.
Sometimes, doing the simple things can win you games. Running on first down gets you into more manageable second downs. Running on third down when you know you are going for it on fourth down shortens the distance for you. The running game is what you do to salt away a win, but there is a place for it throughout the game as well.
The Jets offensive line has been one of the teams strengths this year, and their failure to turn to their ground game in their must win week 17 game was a large factor in their loss.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Boldin or Colston; Revisited
On November 13th, I posited that I would rather have Marques Colston than Anquan Boldin for the duration of the fantasy season. With the ending of 95% of fantasy leagues this past weekend, it is time to revisit my "prediction".
Since that prediction, the players starts are as follows;
Boldin
40 Catches
432 Yards
1 Touchdown
10 Rushing Yards
3 Fumbles / 2 Fumbles Lost
This equates to about 46 fantasy points, assuming no fractionals, and no points for fumbles not lost.
Colston
28 Catches
415 Yards
4 Touchdowns
This equates to 47 points, assuming scoring above. Note that Marques Colston does not have a single rushing or passing attempt in his entire career, which is strange for a guy that has been basically his teams #1 WR from Day One.
I guess I can claim victory here, especially given the extreme negative reaction I received around the office when touting my theory.
Since that prediction, the players starts are as follows;
Boldin
40 Catches
432 Yards
1 Touchdown
10 Rushing Yards
3 Fumbles / 2 Fumbles Lost
This equates to about 46 fantasy points, assuming no fractionals, and no points for fumbles not lost.
Colston
28 Catches
415 Yards
4 Touchdowns
This equates to 47 points, assuming scoring above. Note that Marques Colston does not have a single rushing or passing attempt in his entire career, which is strange for a guy that has been basically his teams #1 WR from Day One.
I guess I can claim victory here, especially given the extreme negative reaction I received around the office when touting my theory.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Kevin Seifert Joins the Team
Since my adoption of the Lions, pro-bono of course, numerous commentators have decided to glom on to my fame and renown, and have taken it upon themselves to assist me in my unenviable task of rebuilding the Detroit Kitty-Cats. The latest example is Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com. For once, most of this column actually makes sense, but since a large part of his advice is on the operational end of things, only a smattering of things applies to our brief. Kevin's points, and my rejoinders, follow;
"3. Put Rod Marinelli out of his misery. Marinelli might be a good football coach, but no one can lose so many games in a such a short period while maintaining credibility inside or outside the organization. I know, Marinelli hasn't been blessed with the NFL's best personnel. But it's hard to convince anyone you're moving forward with a coach who has lost 36 of 46 games over a three-year tenure."
I have said, offline, innumerable times, that we live in a society that worships leadership and accountability. This is a good thing. Part of the reason, regardless of your politics, that George Bush's approval ratings nose-dived at the end of 2005 is that he was perceived as failing to lead the rescue/evacuation/clean-up surrounding Rita and Katrina. Fair or not, his administration and party have paid a great price for this failure. It is oft the same in professional football. We assume Bill Belichick is a legendary coach because of his wins and losses, but we have NO WAY of knowing how he would do with this Lions team.
For my part, I am inclined to keep Marinelli for another season. Coaching stability is a plus, allowing teams to develop a sense of consistency from player evaluation, all the way through to practice methods. The Washington Redskins have spent enormous sums of money and draft picks this century, constantly churning and turning over their rosters and coaching staff. And what have they shown for their millions? One playoff win?
No, Rod Marinelli MAY be part of the problem, but we are determined to give him another year to show that he can address his shortcomings.
Listen, NO coach will make the playoffs with this roster next year (unless they get to move to the NFC west), so bringing in another guy to install another system doesn't help the young players that are on this team, and that will be added during this off season. This is a legitimate three year rebuilding process. If Marinelli can't hack it with an improving roster, then we cut our losses, and give the new guy a window to work in, but I can't approve of firing coaches who struggle to win with rosters composed of guys that might not start in Division II college ball.
"7. Rebuild both lines. The Lions, especially on defense, get pushed around on the line of scrimmage far too often for an NFL team. It's the most basic requirement in football: You must be able to move people out of your way. The Lions can't, at least not often enough. (Evidence: They rank No. 32 in the NFL in rush defense and No. 31 in rush offense). This is a difficult task and could take several drafts to complete. But if they focus on nothing else, the Lions must address this physical mismatch."
Amen, 100% agreement. Almost every mock draft I have seen has the Lions drafting Matt Stafford 1st overall. This would not happen were I running this team. We may trade out of the 1st, we may keep it, we may light ourselves on fire on the stage, but we will NOT be drafting an offensive "skill position" player in the first round.
"8. Because they need such a talent influx on the line and elsewhere, the Lions should trade down in the 2009 draft and perhaps in 2010 as well. For now, focus on numbers rather than blue-chip possibilities. Trades don't happen too often at the highest levels of the draft, but the expected class of 2009 quarterbacks should entice someone to make a deal."
There is wisdom in trading down, but for every seller you need a buyer. The Lions SHOULD try and trade down, but if no one wants the first pick, we have to use it, but the thinking behind this pick is sound.
"9. Establish a practice of drafting safely at the top end of the draft and take your risks in lower rounds. The Lions are a case study in the impact of missing consistently with high, and at times, risky draft choices. (See Rogers, Charles; Harrington, Joey; and Williams, Mike). If you have the proverbial choice between Jake Long and Darren McFadden, take Long. No need to swing for the fence when average is a big improvement."
This is a no duh! type statement, but is is also an example of hind-sight being 20-20. Take a look at this search on ESPN.com ( http://search.espn.go.com/charles-rogers/mel-kiper-jr./4294801923 ) The search is full of praise from Mel Kiper for the Lions adding an "impact player" in Charles Rogers, and saying that whatever team added Mike Williams was going to get a "great player". The Lions got both, and they both suck. Wide receiver is a dangerous position to pick at the top of the draft (Football Outsiders has done yeoman's work on this subject), but to pretend that there was some universal consensus that these guys would be bums is completely farcical. They were RISKIER picks than other guys available, but no one could know how BAD they would turn out to be. Imagine an alternate universe, where Joey Harrington is throwing to the first quadruplet receivers to ever go over 1,000 yards in a season, and their offense is putting up 45 points a game. Not too unrealistic, IF those picks worked out. I didn't think they were good picks at the time, but the criticism was positional, not player skill based.
"10. Resist the temptation to draft a blue-chip quarterback immediately. The Lions are a year or more away from being the 2008 Falcons, who selected Matt Ryan No. 3 overall and inserted him immediately into what surprisingly turned out to be a playoff-caliber lineup. They should use their picks to create a good environment for any young quarterback they eventually draft. These days, teams can't draft a blue-chip quarterback and sit him on the bench for three years. And remember, for every Ryan there is a Harrington."
Poor Joseph Harrington gets no love. A one-time bust has turned into an above-replacement level quarterback. Maybe he looked bad because he was throwing to fat receivers, with no running backs and a Swiss cheese offensive line? Agree with the logic, but the blame may be misdirected.
"14. Make it a priority to find a capable No. 2 receiver opposite of Calvin Johnson. We've seen how Johnson can beat a double team by simply reaching over smaller defenders. But the Lions could benefit more from that double coverage. A competent No. 2 receiver, or even a top pass-catching tight end, could clean up while playing next to Johnson. A good coach could build his offense around the idea that he'll always have a mismatch somewhere in the passing game."
A decent #2 WR is always a bonus in your offense, but young WR's take time to develop. In the off season, I will be exploring the possibility of either a trade, or RFA plays. I think, if Cleveland is selling, Braylon Edwards could be a great option on the backside of the field from Calvin Johnson, scaring the hell out of safeties, and clearing out the short field for CJ and the tight ends.
"3. Put Rod Marinelli out of his misery. Marinelli might be a good football coach, but no one can lose so many games in a such a short period while maintaining credibility inside or outside the organization. I know, Marinelli hasn't been blessed with the NFL's best personnel. But it's hard to convince anyone you're moving forward with a coach who has lost 36 of 46 games over a three-year tenure."
I have said, offline, innumerable times, that we live in a society that worships leadership and accountability. This is a good thing. Part of the reason, regardless of your politics, that George Bush's approval ratings nose-dived at the end of 2005 is that he was perceived as failing to lead the rescue/evacuation/clean-up surrounding Rita and Katrina. Fair or not, his administration and party have paid a great price for this failure. It is oft the same in professional football. We assume Bill Belichick is a legendary coach because of his wins and losses, but we have NO WAY of knowing how he would do with this Lions team.
For my part, I am inclined to keep Marinelli for another season. Coaching stability is a plus, allowing teams to develop a sense of consistency from player evaluation, all the way through to practice methods. The Washington Redskins have spent enormous sums of money and draft picks this century, constantly churning and turning over their rosters and coaching staff. And what have they shown for their millions? One playoff win?
No, Rod Marinelli MAY be part of the problem, but we are determined to give him another year to show that he can address his shortcomings.
Listen, NO coach will make the playoffs with this roster next year (unless they get to move to the NFC west), so bringing in another guy to install another system doesn't help the young players that are on this team, and that will be added during this off season. This is a legitimate three year rebuilding process. If Marinelli can't hack it with an improving roster, then we cut our losses, and give the new guy a window to work in, but I can't approve of firing coaches who struggle to win with rosters composed of guys that might not start in Division II college ball.
"7. Rebuild both lines. The Lions, especially on defense, get pushed around on the line of scrimmage far too often for an NFL team. It's the most basic requirement in football: You must be able to move people out of your way. The Lions can't, at least not often enough. (Evidence: They rank No. 32 in the NFL in rush defense and No. 31 in rush offense). This is a difficult task and could take several drafts to complete. But if they focus on nothing else, the Lions must address this physical mismatch."
Amen, 100% agreement. Almost every mock draft I have seen has the Lions drafting Matt Stafford 1st overall. This would not happen were I running this team. We may trade out of the 1st, we may keep it, we may light ourselves on fire on the stage, but we will NOT be drafting an offensive "skill position" player in the first round.
"8. Because they need such a talent influx on the line and elsewhere, the Lions should trade down in the 2009 draft and perhaps in 2010 as well. For now, focus on numbers rather than blue-chip possibilities. Trades don't happen too often at the highest levels of the draft, but the expected class of 2009 quarterbacks should entice someone to make a deal."
There is wisdom in trading down, but for every seller you need a buyer. The Lions SHOULD try and trade down, but if no one wants the first pick, we have to use it, but the thinking behind this pick is sound.
"9. Establish a practice of drafting safely at the top end of the draft and take your risks in lower rounds. The Lions are a case study in the impact of missing consistently with high, and at times, risky draft choices. (See Rogers, Charles; Harrington, Joey; and Williams, Mike). If you have the proverbial choice between Jake Long and Darren McFadden, take Long. No need to swing for the fence when average is a big improvement."
This is a no duh! type statement, but is is also an example of hind-sight being 20-20. Take a look at this search on ESPN.com ( http://search.espn.go.com/charles-rogers/mel-kiper-jr./4294801923 ) The search is full of praise from Mel Kiper for the Lions adding an "impact player" in Charles Rogers, and saying that whatever team added Mike Williams was going to get a "great player". The Lions got both, and they both suck. Wide receiver is a dangerous position to pick at the top of the draft (Football Outsiders has done yeoman's work on this subject), but to pretend that there was some universal consensus that these guys would be bums is completely farcical. They were RISKIER picks than other guys available, but no one could know how BAD they would turn out to be. Imagine an alternate universe, where Joey Harrington is throwing to the first quadruplet receivers to ever go over 1,000 yards in a season, and their offense is putting up 45 points a game. Not too unrealistic, IF those picks worked out. I didn't think they were good picks at the time, but the criticism was positional, not player skill based.
"10. Resist the temptation to draft a blue-chip quarterback immediately. The Lions are a year or more away from being the 2008 Falcons, who selected Matt Ryan No. 3 overall and inserted him immediately into what surprisingly turned out to be a playoff-caliber lineup. They should use their picks to create a good environment for any young quarterback they eventually draft. These days, teams can't draft a blue-chip quarterback and sit him on the bench for three years. And remember, for every Ryan there is a Harrington."
Poor Joseph Harrington gets no love. A one-time bust has turned into an above-replacement level quarterback. Maybe he looked bad because he was throwing to fat receivers, with no running backs and a Swiss cheese offensive line? Agree with the logic, but the blame may be misdirected.
"14. Make it a priority to find a capable No. 2 receiver opposite of Calvin Johnson. We've seen how Johnson can beat a double team by simply reaching over smaller defenders. But the Lions could benefit more from that double coverage. A competent No. 2 receiver, or even a top pass-catching tight end, could clean up while playing next to Johnson. A good coach could build his offense around the idea that he'll always have a mismatch somewhere in the passing game."
A decent #2 WR is always a bonus in your offense, but young WR's take time to develop. In the off season, I will be exploring the possibility of either a trade, or RFA plays. I think, if Cleveland is selling, Braylon Edwards could be a great option on the backside of the field from Calvin Johnson, scaring the hell out of safeties, and clearing out the short field for CJ and the tight ends.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Really ESPN
Checking my player comments, in setting my lineup for my first playoff game this weekend, (bye week last week), I ran across this gem;
"Edwards (groin) missed practice for the second straight day Thursday and is unlikely to play Sunday against the Jets, according to the Bills' official site. "It's better, but he did not participate at all," said coach Dick Jauron.
Spin: If Edwards had more experience, Jauron might let him play if he was able to practice Friday, but the coach thinks rookies need Thursday and Friday practice, so it seems he's on the edge of naming J.P. Losman the starter for Week 15. If you're in a league with a Thursday lineup deadline, absolutely do not start Edwards."
I, and every other fantasy owner who pays attention to their team, though that Edwards was drafted LAST YEAR by the Buffalo Bills, in the third round, out of Stanford. Glad ESPN is paying attention to their own comments...
"Edwards (groin) missed practice for the second straight day Thursday and is unlikely to play Sunday against the Jets, according to the Bills' official site. "It's better, but he did not participate at all," said coach Dick Jauron.
Spin: If Edwards had more experience, Jauron might let him play if he was able to practice Friday, but the coach thinks rookies need Thursday and Friday practice, so it seems he's on the edge of naming J.P. Losman the starter for Week 15. If you're in a league with a Thursday lineup deadline, absolutely do not start Edwards."
I, and every other fantasy owner who pays attention to their team, though that Edwards was drafted LAST YEAR by the Buffalo Bills, in the third round, out of Stanford. Glad ESPN is paying attention to their own comments...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
What Would We Take for Tom Brady
A post on ColdHardFootballFacts.com asked a question, that four months ago, would have bordered on heresy here in the Northeast; "Should the Pats consider trading Tom Brady?"
The immediate, gut reaction of every New England fan would be "No". Imagine though, if some team (New Orleans in this example), called up and said; "We will give you Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas and our first round pick in the next six drafts." THAT would be jumped on by the same percentage of New England fans.
Clearly, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, we know what we are willing to do, now we are just haggling over the price.
To that end, I have prepared a list of POTENTIAL trade partners, and what I would be willing to accept for Tom Brady. The following caveats apply;
1) We are ignoring cap accelerations.
2) We will NOT trade Tom Brady to any team in the AFC East.
3) Our asking price for the rest of the AFC would be higher than if we shipped him to an NFC team.
To that end, the list of teams that would have realistic interest in Tom Brady;
San Francisco
Detroit
Kansas City
Minnesota
Carolina
Tennessee
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Chicago
Philadelphia is on the list since it seems apparent that Donovan McNabb and the city need a separation. Tampa Bay has Jeff Garcia, but he is old.
I omitted Oakland, which SHOULD be on the list, due to the fact that they still have JaMarcus Russell, couldn't trade him, and couldn't possibly pay two quarterbacks a combined $30mm or so next year.
Here, then, are my terms;
San Francisco: Patrick Willis and three first round picks. Willis and Mayo could man the middle of the Patriots 3-4 defense for the next 10 years, and might be the first linebacker combo in history to combine for 400 tackles in a season. The first round draft picks reflect the fact that there aren't too may other good players in San Fran that I would be interested in. I know Clements is pretty good, and Gore is a very good running back, but there is only one RB in the league I would want to get in a trade (more on that later). Other than that, I don't think their roster has the depth we would need to receive in a trade.
Detroit: Calvin Johnson, Leigh Bodden and two first round picks. Megatron would add a third legitimately great receiver to the offense, and would ensure that on any given play, two of New Englands receiving options should be open. Leigh Bodden was a good cornerback in Cleveland, we are betting that a change of scenery would do him wonders. The first round picks are a little lower than for San Fran, because they may well both be #1 overall picks.
Kansas City: Dwayne Bowe and 4 first round picks. I don't trust the Tyler Thigpen experiment, and Bowe is the only player from Kansas City that I think provides a meaningful upgrade over New England. I understand Tony Gonzalez is better than Ben Watson, but he is also much older.
Minnesota: Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson and a first round pick. Adrian Peterson is breath-taking to behold, and the thought of him running for MY team (other than my fantasy team) is heart warming. Steve Hutchinson is one of the best guards in this league, and would provide a pass-blocking (and health) upgrade over Stephen Neal, who could be moved to right tackle, or put into a rotation. The first round pick would be about mid-round as it appears now, and could be used for the best available player in the secondary.
Carolina: Jon Beason, Steve Smith and Johnathan Stewart. Another linebacker to plug in the middle, and two offensive upgrades. I didn't include Julius Peppers, because I don't think he would be as effective as an end in a 3-4 defense. If New England played the 4-3, the trade would be Peppers, Stewart and a first or something.
Tennessee: Cortland Finnegan, Chris Johnson and Michael Roos. This trade, above all others, I think provides the best return to the New England Patriots. Finnegan provides an immediate upgrade to the secondary, the biggest area of weakness on this team, allowing Ellis Hobbs to cover opposing #2s and Deltha O'Neal to go to hell. Chris Johnson is the two way threat New England thought they were getting when they drafted Laurence Maroney, and would also help my fantasy team, since the looming (and I mean looming, he is huge) specter of LenWhale White vulturing CJ's touchdowns would be erased. Roos has started every game since being drafted, and should make the Pro Bowl this year, providing an upgrade over Nick Kaczur. Three areas of need are ALL strengthened in this trade.
Philadelphia: Shawn Andrews and a ton of draft picks. I am really not too high on anyone in Phildelphia (I guess bringing Asante back would be great, but I still don't know). I guess the ton of draft picks allows the team to stockpile younger talent, but I couldn't see this working.
Tampa Bay: This is another team that doesn't have options at positions that I think New England needs. I guess something like every pick for the next four or five years.
Chicago: Ugh, another team that I don't really see matching up well with New England. Lance Briggs of course springs immediately to mind, as does Urlacher, but no way do they give up both. I guess Briggs and draft picks, and a ton of them.
I would be very excited to get a package like the one I detailed from Tennessee, especially if I could get draft picks involved in the mix too. New England has glaring needs in the defensive secondary, and has depth concerns in the trenches. That trade allows them to cover most of their needs, and to get young players involved in their plans for the future. Their window will run as long as their successful drafts, and plugging in players of Finnegan, Roos and Johnson's abilities may stretch that window a bit further.
The immediate, gut reaction of every New England fan would be "No". Imagine though, if some team (New Orleans in this example), called up and said; "We will give you Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas and our first round pick in the next six drafts." THAT would be jumped on by the same percentage of New England fans.
Clearly, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, we know what we are willing to do, now we are just haggling over the price.
To that end, I have prepared a list of POTENTIAL trade partners, and what I would be willing to accept for Tom Brady. The following caveats apply;
1) We are ignoring cap accelerations.
2) We will NOT trade Tom Brady to any team in the AFC East.
3) Our asking price for the rest of the AFC would be higher than if we shipped him to an NFC team.
To that end, the list of teams that would have realistic interest in Tom Brady;
San Francisco
Detroit
Kansas City
Minnesota
Carolina
Tennessee
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Chicago
Philadelphia is on the list since it seems apparent that Donovan McNabb and the city need a separation. Tampa Bay has Jeff Garcia, but he is old.
I omitted Oakland, which SHOULD be on the list, due to the fact that they still have JaMarcus Russell, couldn't trade him, and couldn't possibly pay two quarterbacks a combined $30mm or so next year.
Here, then, are my terms;
San Francisco: Patrick Willis and three first round picks. Willis and Mayo could man the middle of the Patriots 3-4 defense for the next 10 years, and might be the first linebacker combo in history to combine for 400 tackles in a season. The first round draft picks reflect the fact that there aren't too may other good players in San Fran that I would be interested in. I know Clements is pretty good, and Gore is a very good running back, but there is only one RB in the league I would want to get in a trade (more on that later). Other than that, I don't think their roster has the depth we would need to receive in a trade.
Detroit: Calvin Johnson, Leigh Bodden and two first round picks. Megatron would add a third legitimately great receiver to the offense, and would ensure that on any given play, two of New Englands receiving options should be open. Leigh Bodden was a good cornerback in Cleveland, we are betting that a change of scenery would do him wonders. The first round picks are a little lower than for San Fran, because they may well both be #1 overall picks.
Kansas City: Dwayne Bowe and 4 first round picks. I don't trust the Tyler Thigpen experiment, and Bowe is the only player from Kansas City that I think provides a meaningful upgrade over New England. I understand Tony Gonzalez is better than Ben Watson, but he is also much older.
Minnesota: Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson and a first round pick. Adrian Peterson is breath-taking to behold, and the thought of him running for MY team (other than my fantasy team) is heart warming. Steve Hutchinson is one of the best guards in this league, and would provide a pass-blocking (and health) upgrade over Stephen Neal, who could be moved to right tackle, or put into a rotation. The first round pick would be about mid-round as it appears now, and could be used for the best available player in the secondary.
Carolina: Jon Beason, Steve Smith and Johnathan Stewart. Another linebacker to plug in the middle, and two offensive upgrades. I didn't include Julius Peppers, because I don't think he would be as effective as an end in a 3-4 defense. If New England played the 4-3, the trade would be Peppers, Stewart and a first or something.
Tennessee: Cortland Finnegan, Chris Johnson and Michael Roos. This trade, above all others, I think provides the best return to the New England Patriots. Finnegan provides an immediate upgrade to the secondary, the biggest area of weakness on this team, allowing Ellis Hobbs to cover opposing #2s and Deltha O'Neal to go to hell. Chris Johnson is the two way threat New England thought they were getting when they drafted Laurence Maroney, and would also help my fantasy team, since the looming (and I mean looming, he is huge) specter of LenWhale White vulturing CJ's touchdowns would be erased. Roos has started every game since being drafted, and should make the Pro Bowl this year, providing an upgrade over Nick Kaczur. Three areas of need are ALL strengthened in this trade.
Philadelphia: Shawn Andrews and a ton of draft picks. I am really not too high on anyone in Phildelphia (I guess bringing Asante back would be great, but I still don't know). I guess the ton of draft picks allows the team to stockpile younger talent, but I couldn't see this working.
Tampa Bay: This is another team that doesn't have options at positions that I think New England needs. I guess something like every pick for the next four or five years.
Chicago: Ugh, another team that I don't really see matching up well with New England. Lance Briggs of course springs immediately to mind, as does Urlacher, but no way do they give up both. I guess Briggs and draft picks, and a ton of them.
I would be very excited to get a package like the one I detailed from Tennessee, especially if I could get draft picks involved in the mix too. New England has glaring needs in the defensive secondary, and has depth concerns in the trenches. That trade allows them to cover most of their needs, and to get young players involved in their plans for the future. Their window will run as long as their successful drafts, and plugging in players of Finnegan, Roos and Johnson's abilities may stretch that window a bit further.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Shame on You, Michael Fabiano
Look, I have NEVER pretended to watch every game. I don't tell you how a team handled a particular receiver, or how fast a certain running back looked in his three carries. I base my analysis off of numbers and trends, i.e; I don't start ANY #1 WR against Oakland, because I know what the production of receivers lined up against Nnamdi Asomugha is like.
Apparently, Michael Fabiano watches game film for every game, every week. Puh-lease! Writing in his column this week, Fabiano uncorks this blow-hard gem;
"Should I bench Chris Johnson this week? He's done nothing over the past two games and faces the Jets' tough run defense in Week 12. I can replace him with Tim Hightower or Marshawn Lynch. -- F. Classen, Denmark
M.F.: Johnson has seen his numbers fall over the last two weeks, as defenses have focused on stopping the run and challenged Kerry Collins to beat them."
Really? Johnson's numbers have declined because defenses have focused on stopping the run?
Are you sure it doesn't have to do with the fact that in one game, he played against the Chicago Bears, and their hold-every-RB-but-Adrian-Peterson-to-2-YPC-defense? And in the other game, Tennessee only got to run 57 offensive plays, with 16 of them running plays by LenWhale White and Kerry Collins? That leaves 41 plays, of which Johnson carried 17 times and caught four passes, for a total of 88 yards, hardly shut down.
Kerry Collins threw a pick on the opening drive, which cost Johnson potentially 3-6 carries. On the second drive, LenWhale got a 2 yard carry on 1st and 10 from the Jaguars 20, followed by an incomplete pass, and a short screen pass, field goal. A completion (or sequential runs on second down) and maybe Johnson gets 1-2 more plays on this drive. On the third drive, two LenWhale runs resulted in 6 yards, followed by another Kerry Collins incompletion on third down, another chance for Johnson to get carries forgone by a failure to convert third downs. On Tennessee's 4th drive, Johnson had a pair of four yard carries followed by ANOTHER incompletion on 3rd and 2 (why are you passing there?). Boom goes the punt, and out the window go another potential group of plays. On the next drive, a 3 yard run by Johnson, an incomplete pass and a false start lead to a 3rd and 12, with, you guessed it, ANOTHER Kerry Collins incompletion. Boom goes the punt, yadi yadi yada. The next drive, Johnson had 3 straight runs, and could not convert the third down. To this point, I think Tennessee is like 1-8 on 3rd downs. The punt is away, and Tennessee does not get the ball again in the half.
On the Titans first drive of the second half, a long return is followed by a couple of short passes, an 11 yard Chris Johnson run, and another 8 yard pass, with another Chris Johnson conversion. Johnson gets 2 yards to the 13, and the next play is a touchdown pass. On the NEXT drive, CJ has a 7 yard run on 1st down (come on Fabiano, I thought they were loading the box), followed by the 56 yard scoring pass to Justin Gage.
The fourth quarter emerges much the same. A team struggles on third down, but converts a bunch on long plays on first and second downs. The Titans were ONE FOR TWELVE on 3rd down conversions for the game, and THAT is why CJ struggled in this game (granted one was his fault). Kerry Collins completed three passes on third down all game, and two of them went for negative yardage. When you can't convert 3rd downs, your running backs see the field alot less than they should, and THAT is why CJ struggled. Give him 8 more carries at his average production, and you have 95 rushing yards to go with 24 receiving (assuming he didn't catch anything else). All of a sudden, we are talking about 120 all purpose yards.
Michael Fabiano can BS all he wants about schemes and whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that the Titans were dreadful on 3rd down, and that hurt CJ's touches a bunch in this game. Kerry Collins completed his passes on 1st and 2nd down, and they were long, flukish plays for the big scores.
He is a tough play this week against a pretty good Jets defense, but it has NOTHING to do with the Jets loading the box, and everything to do with what the NUMBERS tell you the Jets do to opposing running backs.
Apparently, Michael Fabiano watches game film for every game, every week. Puh-lease! Writing in his column this week, Fabiano uncorks this blow-hard gem;
"Should I bench Chris Johnson this week? He's done nothing over the past two games and faces the Jets' tough run defense in Week 12. I can replace him with Tim Hightower or Marshawn Lynch. -- F. Classen, Denmark
M.F.: Johnson has seen his numbers fall over the last two weeks, as defenses have focused on stopping the run and challenged Kerry Collins to beat them."
Really? Johnson's numbers have declined because defenses have focused on stopping the run?
Are you sure it doesn't have to do with the fact that in one game, he played against the Chicago Bears, and their hold-every-RB-but-Adrian-Peterson-to-2-YPC-defense? And in the other game, Tennessee only got to run 57 offensive plays, with 16 of them running plays by LenWhale White and Kerry Collins? That leaves 41 plays, of which Johnson carried 17 times and caught four passes, for a total of 88 yards, hardly shut down.
Kerry Collins threw a pick on the opening drive, which cost Johnson potentially 3-6 carries. On the second drive, LenWhale got a 2 yard carry on 1st and 10 from the Jaguars 20, followed by an incomplete pass, and a short screen pass, field goal. A completion (or sequential runs on second down) and maybe Johnson gets 1-2 more plays on this drive. On the third drive, two LenWhale runs resulted in 6 yards, followed by another Kerry Collins incompletion on third down, another chance for Johnson to get carries forgone by a failure to convert third downs. On Tennessee's 4th drive, Johnson had a pair of four yard carries followed by ANOTHER incompletion on 3rd and 2 (why are you passing there?). Boom goes the punt, and out the window go another potential group of plays. On the next drive, a 3 yard run by Johnson, an incomplete pass and a false start lead to a 3rd and 12, with, you guessed it, ANOTHER Kerry Collins incompletion. Boom goes the punt, yadi yadi yada. The next drive, Johnson had 3 straight runs, and could not convert the third down. To this point, I think Tennessee is like 1-8 on 3rd downs. The punt is away, and Tennessee does not get the ball again in the half.
On the Titans first drive of the second half, a long return is followed by a couple of short passes, an 11 yard Chris Johnson run, and another 8 yard pass, with another Chris Johnson conversion. Johnson gets 2 yards to the 13, and the next play is a touchdown pass. On the NEXT drive, CJ has a 7 yard run on 1st down (come on Fabiano, I thought they were loading the box), followed by the 56 yard scoring pass to Justin Gage.
The fourth quarter emerges much the same. A team struggles on third down, but converts a bunch on long plays on first and second downs. The Titans were ONE FOR TWELVE on 3rd down conversions for the game, and THAT is why CJ struggled in this game (granted one was his fault). Kerry Collins completed three passes on third down all game, and two of them went for negative yardage. When you can't convert 3rd downs, your running backs see the field alot less than they should, and THAT is why CJ struggled. Give him 8 more carries at his average production, and you have 95 rushing yards to go with 24 receiving (assuming he didn't catch anything else). All of a sudden, we are talking about 120 all purpose yards.
Michael Fabiano can BS all he wants about schemes and whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that the Titans were dreadful on 3rd down, and that hurt CJ's touches a bunch in this game. Kerry Collins completed his passes on 1st and 2nd down, and they were long, flukish plays for the big scores.
He is a tough play this week against a pretty good Jets defense, but it has NOTHING to do with the Jets loading the box, and everything to do with what the NUMBERS tell you the Jets do to opposing running backs.
Lions on the Clock
As part of my research for our Dynasty Fantasy Football league, I have begun (began, begin, beganned?) to look into mock drafts for 2009. It is important to find rookie skill position players, or offensive lineman that will be drafted high to teams with YOUR skill position players. Many of the mocks I have seen have the Detroit Lions picking a QB 1st overall. I can assure you, under our management, that if the Lions lose out, and "win" the 1st pick in the 2009 draft, they will NOT be selecting a quarterback. A trade is possible, but right now we are biased towards Michael Oher. As noted before, I think winning teams build on the foundations of solid line play, and a rookie QB doesn't address that.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Boldin or Colston
A co-worker was recently proposed a trade of either Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston for Jay Cutler (the co-worker would be the recipient of Cutler).
Near universal consensus would say that Boldin is the MUCH better option, but I told him that were I making the trade, I would give away Boldin over Colston (and this is not an insignificant point, I have both receivers on my one fantasy team.
Both Colston and Boldin are elite talents when healthy, and Colston missed a month and a half with a broken thumb, and was held without a reception in his first game back from injury. In his most recent game, he had 7 catches for 140 yards, so I think it is safe to say that he has recovered from the thumb.
My logic, or basis, for saying that I would keep Colston over Boldin is due to the inherent unpredictability of wide receiver touchdowns. Boldin has been the #1 WR in value under my fantasy league's scoring format (I think we can say he is no more than top 5 in ANY realistic scoring format). Colston, obviously would be lucky to get into the top 75, given that he has played like 3 real games.
What concerns me about Boldin is a regression to the mean happening during the season. Last week is a good example, when he had two TDs against the 49ers. His second TD "catch" was actually a screen pass, where Boldin caught the ball on the five yard line, knifed inside and under one defender, and came down 0.000000000000000001 inches inside of the end zone. In fact, his first TD was a great individual effort as well, as he juked one defender out, and ran past (or between) two more. These were great individual plays, but are also two very CLOSE plays. Imagine he comes down 0.0000000000000001 inches OUTSIDE of the end zone, or the defender juked on the first score bumps him and slows him down. Now Boldin has 5 catches for 50 yards (or something) and NO scores. Not that it did happen, but it JUST AS EASILY could have happened.
The example I bring up is of Reggie Williams from last season, when he had 38 catches and 10 TDs. In some formats, he would be a top 5 or top 10 receiver (depending on TD weight). This season he is on pace for 36 catches and 2 TDs. A lot of fantasy owners drafted him expecting 50-60 catches and 10 more TDs, and are being disappointed.
When I look at running backs, I look at TDs, since a running back that gets goal line carries can have his value highly inflated (LenWhale White, I am looking at you!). Receiver TDs however, I don't value as highly as catches and yards.
Give me a receiver with 100 catches and 2 scores over a guy with 50 catches and 9-10 scores, and I think more often than not, in the NEXT season, that 100 catch guy will VASTLY outperform the 50 catch gentleman.
In a roundabout way, I am less optimistic that Anquan Boldin will put up the points he has put up for the rest of the season, and I fear an in-season regression to the mean.
Near universal consensus would say that Boldin is the MUCH better option, but I told him that were I making the trade, I would give away Boldin over Colston (and this is not an insignificant point, I have both receivers on my one fantasy team.
Both Colston and Boldin are elite talents when healthy, and Colston missed a month and a half with a broken thumb, and was held without a reception in his first game back from injury. In his most recent game, he had 7 catches for 140 yards, so I think it is safe to say that he has recovered from the thumb.
My logic, or basis, for saying that I would keep Colston over Boldin is due to the inherent unpredictability of wide receiver touchdowns. Boldin has been the #1 WR in value under my fantasy league's scoring format (I think we can say he is no more than top 5 in ANY realistic scoring format). Colston, obviously would be lucky to get into the top 75, given that he has played like 3 real games.
What concerns me about Boldin is a regression to the mean happening during the season. Last week is a good example, when he had two TDs against the 49ers. His second TD "catch" was actually a screen pass, where Boldin caught the ball on the five yard line, knifed inside and under one defender, and came down 0.000000000000000001 inches inside of the end zone. In fact, his first TD was a great individual effort as well, as he juked one defender out, and ran past (or between) two more. These were great individual plays, but are also two very CLOSE plays. Imagine he comes down 0.0000000000000001 inches OUTSIDE of the end zone, or the defender juked on the first score bumps him and slows him down. Now Boldin has 5 catches for 50 yards (or something) and NO scores. Not that it did happen, but it JUST AS EASILY could have happened.
The example I bring up is of Reggie Williams from last season, when he had 38 catches and 10 TDs. In some formats, he would be a top 5 or top 10 receiver (depending on TD weight). This season he is on pace for 36 catches and 2 TDs. A lot of fantasy owners drafted him expecting 50-60 catches and 10 more TDs, and are being disappointed.
When I look at running backs, I look at TDs, since a running back that gets goal line carries can have his value highly inflated (LenWhale White, I am looking at you!). Receiver TDs however, I don't value as highly as catches and yards.
Give me a receiver with 100 catches and 2 scores over a guy with 50 catches and 9-10 scores, and I think more often than not, in the NEXT season, that 100 catch guy will VASTLY outperform the 50 catch gentleman.
In a roundabout way, I am less optimistic that Anquan Boldin will put up the points he has put up for the rest of the season, and I fear an in-season regression to the mean.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Shorthanded Results of Draft Success
I have been thinking, for some time, how teams success can be correlated to their success on Draft Day. I think a shorthanded way of looking at it can apply, in general cases;
1) If a team NEVER hits on draft picks (or very rarely), you get a crud team. The Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders of the last couple of years are good examples of this, and not coincidentally, are among the two worst franchises since 2002. Namdi Asomugha is obviously a GREAT player, and my pick for best defensive back in the NFL today, but by and large, these teams have whiffed time and again.
2) If a team makes solid picks in the first round, it will be competitive. The best example I can think of for first round drafting is probably San Diego, although there are extenuating circumstances to all of their picks. They have not yet made a Super Bowl in their run, but have mixed mostly good years in with some mediocre years. If your team JUST hits their first round picks, this is probably the ceiling. Note that I say San Diego, which is German for a whale's vagina, is the CEILING, since they have had some success in the later rounds.
3) If your team hits on half of their late round picks, you will have a dominant franchise. The best two examples are the Pats of 2000-2004 and the Colts of the last eight years. Everyone knows about Tom Brady, but lesser known picks have been very important to the teams run of dominance as well. Dan Koppen was a 5th round pick that started most of his rookie season. David Givens was a 7th round pick from Notre Dame that was a great possession receiver before he left New England and came down with Belichick's Revenge. Asante Samuel was a 4th round pick, yadi yadi yada. The Colts have similar success stories scattered around their roster. Teams that hit in the late rounds, in addition to hitting early, will compete for Super Bowls for longer windows than teams that mix booms and busts. A large part of the Pats weaknesses this year (aside from Brady obviously) is the paucity of players from the last three drafts. Note that the jury is still out on the Giants. Last years draft looks good, but I don't think Kevin Boss is as good as fans think he is, and we don't know if they will continue to build on their late round mining, or if it was a flash in the pan.
Notice that first and foremost, successful franchises are predicated on solid play from the QB position. In addition to my belief that a team should grab AT LEAST one offensive and defensive lineman per year, I don't think teams would be too amiss were they to DRAFT one QB every other year, and sign one rookie to the practice squad every other year. The Colts, for all their successes, have been quite lucky with Peyton Manning's health, and have nothing behind Jim Sorgi. Grooming young QBs in the system is a smart option that all teams can take advantage of.
1) If a team NEVER hits on draft picks (or very rarely), you get a crud team. The Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders of the last couple of years are good examples of this, and not coincidentally, are among the two worst franchises since 2002. Namdi Asomugha is obviously a GREAT player, and my pick for best defensive back in the NFL today, but by and large, these teams have whiffed time and again.
2) If a team makes solid picks in the first round, it will be competitive. The best example I can think of for first round drafting is probably San Diego, although there are extenuating circumstances to all of their picks. They have not yet made a Super Bowl in their run, but have mixed mostly good years in with some mediocre years. If your team JUST hits their first round picks, this is probably the ceiling. Note that I say San Diego, which is German for a whale's vagina, is the CEILING, since they have had some success in the later rounds.
3) If your team hits on half of their late round picks, you will have a dominant franchise. The best two examples are the Pats of 2000-2004 and the Colts of the last eight years. Everyone knows about Tom Brady, but lesser known picks have been very important to the teams run of dominance as well. Dan Koppen was a 5th round pick that started most of his rookie season. David Givens was a 7th round pick from Notre Dame that was a great possession receiver before he left New England and came down with Belichick's Revenge. Asante Samuel was a 4th round pick, yadi yadi yada. The Colts have similar success stories scattered around their roster. Teams that hit in the late rounds, in addition to hitting early, will compete for Super Bowls for longer windows than teams that mix booms and busts. A large part of the Pats weaknesses this year (aside from Brady obviously) is the paucity of players from the last three drafts. Note that the jury is still out on the Giants. Last years draft looks good, but I don't think Kevin Boss is as good as fans think he is, and we don't know if they will continue to build on their late round mining, or if it was a flash in the pan.
Notice that first and foremost, successful franchises are predicated on solid play from the QB position. In addition to my belief that a team should grab AT LEAST one offensive and defensive lineman per year, I don't think teams would be too amiss were they to DRAFT one QB every other year, and sign one rookie to the practice squad every other year. The Colts, for all their successes, have been quite lucky with Peyton Manning's health, and have nothing behind Jim Sorgi. Grooming young QBs in the system is a smart option that all teams can take advantage of.
Tooting My Own Horn
Not to brag, but since the "adoption" of the Detroit Lions by this blog, we have proposed two moves, trading Jon Kitna to see if Orlovsky is worth anything, and trading Roy Williams. The Lions must be readers, having, in the last week, traded Roy Williams to Dallas, and, attempted to trade Jon Kitna before placing him on IR, to see what they have in Orlovsky.
Friday, October 3, 2008
How Bad Is the Detroit Lions Run Defense
In 1976, the New England Patriots rushed for a team NFL record 2,948 yards. Offensive lineman John Hannah (maybe the best offensive lineman in history, and still the best player in Patriots history) led the way for a team that averaged an almost unfathomable 210 yards per game (they played 14 games that season). The Detroit Lions are allowing 207.7 yards per game. That means, for the lay person, that if a team got to play the Detroit Lions 16 times (we should all be so lucky!), there is a legitimate shot at that team rushing for 3,323 yards. If you figure the #1 RB gets 60% of his teams rushing yardage (not sure on the actual rate, I think it's a good enough guess), your fantasy runner could put up about 1,994 yards over a sixteen game schedule. If you have a team with more of a feature back, like Buffalo, or San Francisco, they could easily challenge Dickerson's all time single season record.
That is why I said no matter what, start ANY running back you have against the Lions, particularly when he is as much the focus of his team's offense as Matt Forte is. If you plug in his expected output of 60% of 207.7, you get 125 yards or so. THEN you add in any TDs, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. I'm not going to project the fantasy game of the season (AP still gets to run against them), but is 25 points unreasonable? Absolutely not.
That is why I said no matter what, start ANY running back you have against the Lions, particularly when he is as much the focus of his team's offense as Matt Forte is. If you plug in his expected output of 60% of 207.7, you get 125 yards or so. THEN you add in any TDs, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. I'm not going to project the fantasy game of the season (AP still gets to run against them), but is 25 points unreasonable? Absolutely not.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Week 5 WR Rankings
Week 5 WRs;
1) Brandon Marshall
2) Terrell Owens
3) Larry Fitzgerald
4) Steve Smith
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Calvin Johnson
7) Andre Johnson
8) Greg Jennings
9) Santana Moss
10) T.J Houshmandzadeh
11) DeSean Jackson
12) Wes Welker
13) Randy Moss
14) Lee Evans
15) Roy Williams
16) Dwayne Bowe
17) Chris Chambers
18) Roddy White
19) Eddie Royal
20) Hines Ward
21) Lance Moore
22) Robert Meachem
23) Chad Johnson
24) Donald Driver
25) Antonio Bryant
Brandon Marshall's touchdown catch last week was incredible, and not to beat a dead horse, but this guy was available in the fourth round. You think Philadelphia or Seattle might like him right now? If I were a baseball coach, I would list Fitzgerald and Steve Smith as "Fitzy" and "Smitty", but I'm not, so they go by their Christian names with me. The brothers Johnson both represent their teams best options to attack opposing pass defenses, and I see them being pretty productive. DeSean Jackson is bucking the trend of rookie receivers, although I hope he doesn't deliberately fumble at the one yard line this week. Randy Moss is slipping lower and lower, as a Pats fan, this bugs me, as a non-Moss owner, I love it. Revenge game for Chris Chambers? Moore and Meachem will get plenty of looks from Brees, and certainly Meachem is capable of turning three looks into two catches for one hundred and seventy two yards. Donald Driver is not performing as I had hoped, he may be taking a vacation from these lists shortly.
1) Brandon Marshall
2) Terrell Owens
3) Larry Fitzgerald
4) Steve Smith
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Calvin Johnson
7) Andre Johnson
8) Greg Jennings
9) Santana Moss
10) T.J Houshmandzadeh
11) DeSean Jackson
12) Wes Welker
13) Randy Moss
14) Lee Evans
15) Roy Williams
16) Dwayne Bowe
17) Chris Chambers
18) Roddy White
19) Eddie Royal
20) Hines Ward
21) Lance Moore
22) Robert Meachem
23) Chad Johnson
24) Donald Driver
25) Antonio Bryant
Brandon Marshall's touchdown catch last week was incredible, and not to beat a dead horse, but this guy was available in the fourth round. You think Philadelphia or Seattle might like him right now? If I were a baseball coach, I would list Fitzgerald and Steve Smith as "Fitzy" and "Smitty", but I'm not, so they go by their Christian names with me. The brothers Johnson both represent their teams best options to attack opposing pass defenses, and I see them being pretty productive. DeSean Jackson is bucking the trend of rookie receivers, although I hope he doesn't deliberately fumble at the one yard line this week. Randy Moss is slipping lower and lower, as a Pats fan, this bugs me, as a non-Moss owner, I love it. Revenge game for Chris Chambers? Moore and Meachem will get plenty of looks from Brees, and certainly Meachem is capable of turning three looks into two catches for one hundred and seventy two yards. Donald Driver is not performing as I had hoped, he may be taking a vacation from these lists shortly.
Week 5 RB Rankings
Here are the rankings for RBs in week 5;
1) Matt Forte
2) LaDanian Tomlinson
3) Adrian Peterson
4) Joseph Addai
5) Marion Barber
6) Earnest Graham
7) Steve Slaton
8) Marshawn Lynch
9) Ryan Grant
10) Brandon Jacobs
11) Jonathan Stewart
12) Larry Johnson
13) Michael Turner
14) Ronnie Brown
15) Julius Jones
16) Chris Perry
17) Edgerrin James
18) Reggie Bush
19) Brian Westbrook
20) Maurice Jones-Drew
21) Mewelde Moore
22) Sammy Morris
23) DeAngelo Williams
24) Chris Johnson
25) Selvin Young
Matt Forte gets to run on the Detroit defense. At this point, I would be ranked #1 against them. I think Indy will get a hefty dose of Steve Slaton to attack that suddenly pitiful run defense. Johnathan Stewart has outperformed DeAngelo Williams in every game this year, but ESPN projects Williams to be the higher scorer. I don't. Ronnie Brown won't score 5 TDs, but he could easily get 12-14 points. Reggie Bush might have 19 carries for -3 yards, but should be able to catch a handful of passes and get some yards and a possible score off those. Sammy Morris is the RB in New England this week, I guess. Selvin Young is a riddle, wrapped inside an enigma. Is he the starter, or is Andre Hall? Does he get the red zone carries, or does Michael Pittman? Who knows...
1) Matt Forte
2) LaDanian Tomlinson
3) Adrian Peterson
4) Joseph Addai
5) Marion Barber
6) Earnest Graham
7) Steve Slaton
8) Marshawn Lynch
9) Ryan Grant
10) Brandon Jacobs
11) Jonathan Stewart
12) Larry Johnson
13) Michael Turner
14) Ronnie Brown
15) Julius Jones
16) Chris Perry
17) Edgerrin James
18) Reggie Bush
19) Brian Westbrook
20) Maurice Jones-Drew
21) Mewelde Moore
22) Sammy Morris
23) DeAngelo Williams
24) Chris Johnson
25) Selvin Young
Matt Forte gets to run on the Detroit defense. At this point, I would be ranked #1 against them. I think Indy will get a hefty dose of Steve Slaton to attack that suddenly pitiful run defense. Johnathan Stewart has outperformed DeAngelo Williams in every game this year, but ESPN projects Williams to be the higher scorer. I don't. Ronnie Brown won't score 5 TDs, but he could easily get 12-14 points. Reggie Bush might have 19 carries for -3 yards, but should be able to catch a handful of passes and get some yards and a possible score off those. Sammy Morris is the RB in New England this week, I guess. Selvin Young is a riddle, wrapped inside an enigma. Is he the starter, or is Andre Hall? Does he get the red zone carries, or does Michael Pittman? Who knows...
Week 5 QB Rankings
Here are my rankings for the QBs in week 5;
1) Tony Romo
2) Philip Rivers
3) Drew Brees
4) Jay Cutler
5) Peyton Manning
6) Donovan McNabb
7) Kurt Warner
8) Aaron Rodgers*
9) Eli Manning
10) Jason Campbell
11) Brian Griese
12) Jon Kitna
13) Jake Delhomme
14) Trent Edwards
15) Gus Frerotte
Romo should put up the points that Derek Anderson was unable to last week against the Bungles secondary. Rivers would be #1, but I think LT is going to get alot of carries this week. Brees goes against the Minnesota pass defense, which so far is not being helped by the mega-deal for Jared Allen. Aaron Rodgers ranking is, of course, if healthy. I love Jason Campbell, but tough matchup on the road in Philly this week. He has yet to throw a pick, but it would be pretty impressive if he could continue that streak. That being said, he could get 40 throws, since that run defense is so tough. Gus Frerotte makes this list only because the New Orleans pass defense is so woeful. Next week he can sink back to the bottom of the barrel.
1) Tony Romo
2) Philip Rivers
3) Drew Brees
4) Jay Cutler
5) Peyton Manning
6) Donovan McNabb
7) Kurt Warner
8) Aaron Rodgers*
9) Eli Manning
10) Jason Campbell
11) Brian Griese
12) Jon Kitna
13) Jake Delhomme
14) Trent Edwards
15) Gus Frerotte
Romo should put up the points that Derek Anderson was unable to last week against the Bungles secondary. Rivers would be #1, but I think LT is going to get alot of carries this week. Brees goes against the Minnesota pass defense, which so far is not being helped by the mega-deal for Jared Allen. Aaron Rodgers ranking is, of course, if healthy. I love Jason Campbell, but tough matchup on the road in Philly this week. He has yet to throw a pick, but it would be pretty impressive if he could continue that streak. That being said, he could get 40 throws, since that run defense is so tough. Gus Frerotte makes this list only because the New Orleans pass defense is so woeful. Next week he can sink back to the bottom of the barrel.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Week 4 WR Rankings
The rankings for WR in Week 4;
1) T.J Houshmandzadeh
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Larry Fitzgerald
4) Steve Smith
5) Braylon Edwards
6) Terrell Owens
7) Anquan Boldin
8) Andre Johnson
9) Santana Moss
10) Dwayne Bowe
11) Greg Jennings
12) Lee Evans
13) Isaac Bruce
14) Donald Driver
15) Chad Johnson
16) Jerricho Cotchery
17) Vincent Jackson
18) Torry Holt
19) Mushin Muhammed
20) Matt Jones
21) Chris Chambers
22) Hines Ward
23) Laveranues Coles
24) Eddie Royal
25) DeSean Jackson
26) Antonio Bryant
27) Patrick Crayton
28) Santonio Holmes
29) Josh Reed
30) Robert Meachem
How amazing is it that T.J Houshmandzadeh is the unquestionably better receiver in Cincinnati, and he was a 7th round pick? Marshall has another good matchup, and should roll up the yardage against KC. It doesn't hurt that Cutler's first reaction is to throw to him. If Braylon Edwards can't get it down this week, he is probably not going to start for another six or seven weeks. Terrell Owens has to bounce back from last weeks game, but I imagine the Washington D is going to try and replicate that formula. I have Greg Jennings lower than most other rankings, I think Tampa Bay's D is pretty good, and you don't attack cover 2 defenses with downfield speed merchants. I have Vincent Jackson over Chris Chambers this week, since I think Namdi Asomughua will play Chambers, and let DeAngelo Hall "cover" Jackson. Matt Jones is the best option against a bad Houston pass defense, so he climbs into the rankings. Josh Reed goes against a dreadful St. Louis defense, so he should be good for another 5-7 catches, and possibly a score. Robert Meachem was a first round pick last year, he needs to take advantage of these opportunities for playing time.
1) T.J Houshmandzadeh
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Larry Fitzgerald
4) Steve Smith
5) Braylon Edwards
6) Terrell Owens
7) Anquan Boldin
8) Andre Johnson
9) Santana Moss
10) Dwayne Bowe
11) Greg Jennings
12) Lee Evans
13) Isaac Bruce
14) Donald Driver
15) Chad Johnson
16) Jerricho Cotchery
17) Vincent Jackson
18) Torry Holt
19) Mushin Muhammed
20) Matt Jones
21) Chris Chambers
22) Hines Ward
23) Laveranues Coles
24) Eddie Royal
25) DeSean Jackson
26) Antonio Bryant
27) Patrick Crayton
28) Santonio Holmes
29) Josh Reed
30) Robert Meachem
How amazing is it that T.J Houshmandzadeh is the unquestionably better receiver in Cincinnati, and he was a 7th round pick? Marshall has another good matchup, and should roll up the yardage against KC. It doesn't hurt that Cutler's first reaction is to throw to him. If Braylon Edwards can't get it down this week, he is probably not going to start for another six or seven weeks. Terrell Owens has to bounce back from last weeks game, but I imagine the Washington D is going to try and replicate that formula. I have Greg Jennings lower than most other rankings, I think Tampa Bay's D is pretty good, and you don't attack cover 2 defenses with downfield speed merchants. I have Vincent Jackson over Chris Chambers this week, since I think Namdi Asomughua will play Chambers, and let DeAngelo Hall "cover" Jackson. Matt Jones is the best option against a bad Houston pass defense, so he climbs into the rankings. Josh Reed goes against a dreadful St. Louis defense, so he should be good for another 5-7 catches, and possibly a score. Robert Meachem was a first round pick last year, he needs to take advantage of these opportunities for playing time.
My Team Building Philosophy
Since I am acting-interim GM of the Lions, I have started posting on some moves that I would make were I in charge of the team. What I have not discussed, is the motive behind those moves, or the over-arching philosophy that breeds my thinking. In a couple of quick points, I will try to explain how I would build a football team, were I an actual GM.
1) Successful teams, for the most part, are built from the lines out. Look at the Browns of last year. After years of terrible, cover your eyes offensive production, they sign Eric Steinbach and draft Joe Thomas, two very good offensive linemen, and lo, they become a top five offense, and make Derek Anderson (!?) into a legit-looking NFL quarterback. They also resurrected Jamal Lewis' career, leading hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners to draft him probably four rounds before he should have been taken. Similarly, look at what the Giants defensive line did in the Super Bowl, or what the line of the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucaneers did to the Raiders in their Super Bowl win. Offense in football is ENTIRELY about time. If your QB has 9 seconds to throw, and your running back has time to get to his lane, or reverse his field, you are going to put up a ton of points, and any QB and RB combo that can do the same to you will result in you giving up a ton of points. A strong offensive line buys time, and a strong defensive line costs the offense time. I remember reading something in The Sporting News how Rich Gannon had on average 1.7 seconds (or something) to throw. You show me a QB that can be successful with 1.7 seconds to take the snap, drop back 3-7 steps, scan the defense, choose the best option, windup and get the ball there, and I'll show you a guy playing Rookie mode in Madden.
This is why I thought the Jake Long was the right #1 pick in the draft this year, and why I would have drafted Joe Thomas #1 last year. Were I the Lions GM then, I would have grabbed Joe Thomas over Calvin Johnson, and were I Al Davis' corpse, I would have grabbed Thomas over JaMarcus Rusell (actually, were I Al Davis, I might draft a kicker before Russell, but I digress.) I think drafting an lineman is ALMOST never a bad idea, since you gain depth, even if the player doesn't start for you right away. At any given point, there are 8-9 linemen on the field (offense and defense), representing 36% of ALL players, but's its always the skill positions that are considered the best picks.
2) I would almost NEVER draft a running back in the first round. Keeping with my philosophy that successful teams start with their line, I also view the running back position as interchangeable. Put an average running back (Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Sammy Morris, Shaun Alexander of 2006) behind a good offensive line, and you get 1,000 yards. Put an elite running back behind a sieve offensive line (Stephen Jackson last year springs to mind), and they will produce, but will not be game changers. Add to that the fact that due to wear and tear, running backs have a MUCH shorter life span than other skill positions, and I would almost always pass on selecting a running back in the first round.
3) I would NEVER draft a wide receiver in the first round. This isn't an overreaction to the failures of my predecessor drafting WR's something like 74 years in a row. WR, more than any other position besides QB, comes with a steep learning curve. Calvin Johnson, widely considered one of the most pro-ready WRs to ever come out of the draft, had less than 50 catches last year, which was considered a GOOD year for rookie WRs. I think the sky is the limit for CJ, and I have already labelled him a core player, but great WRs don't make teams Super Bowl champs on their own. History is littered with WRs that have been picked late, taken some time to develop, and become superstars. Look at today's top WR list;
Terrell Owens (3rd rounder)
Anquan Boldin (2nd rounder(did have monster rookie year, I know))
Brandon Marshall (4th rounder)
Marques Colston (243rd rounder)
Reggie Wayne (LATE 1st rounder(not saying you CAN'T find a good player there))
Is that everyone, of course not, and did I selectively chose my players? Of course! But for every Randy Moss, or Larry Fitzgerald one tosses out, you can come right back with a Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Charles Rogers or Michael Clayton (another flash in the pan). First round WRs demand huge contracts, and are usually non-productive their first 2-3 years. You get better return out of the fat-boy positions. Look, obviously, if I felt the next Jerry Rice was there, I would draft him, but I would choose a guy I thought would be the next John Hannah over him, if he were there at the same spot too.
4) QB arm strength is wildly overrated. Scouts seem to have a nerdish fascination with the size of a mans biceps. A pitcher than can throw 100mph will get MANY more chances than a guy who clocks out at 88. A QB that can throw the ball through the uprights from his knees will get more chances than a guy who can't. A guy taken at 21-23 is not who he will be, but who he IS. Players can develop arm strength (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning), but they can not develop the ability to stay cool under pressure. I would take Chad Pennington over almost any other QB in the league, and could get a prospect like him a lot later than a guy like JaMarcus Russell or Kyle Boller.
5) You should play the system that suits your players, and sign the players that suits your system. Jason David was a serviceable Tampa 2 corner in Indianapolis, and a complete and total disaster in New Orleans. Jonathan Vilma was a tackling machine when the Jets played the 4-3, not so much when they stood one of those linemen up. On day 1, you need to play with the system that best suits your players, and over time, you need to find players that play best in the system you intend to run. That is, I think, one of the keys to the Patriots success, is that they bring in guys with limitations, and then don't ask them to do things they are limited in. They don't ask Junior Seau to follow tight ends all over the field. They don't ask Richard Seymour to become Dwight Freeney. The Pats win because they put their players in the right situations, and don't try to force square pegs into round holes.
Those are some simple rules I think every team should follow, and how I would build a team.
1) Successful teams, for the most part, are built from the lines out. Look at the Browns of last year. After years of terrible, cover your eyes offensive production, they sign Eric Steinbach and draft Joe Thomas, two very good offensive linemen, and lo, they become a top five offense, and make Derek Anderson (!?) into a legit-looking NFL quarterback. They also resurrected Jamal Lewis' career, leading hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners to draft him probably four rounds before he should have been taken. Similarly, look at what the Giants defensive line did in the Super Bowl, or what the line of the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucaneers did to the Raiders in their Super Bowl win. Offense in football is ENTIRELY about time. If your QB has 9 seconds to throw, and your running back has time to get to his lane, or reverse his field, you are going to put up a ton of points, and any QB and RB combo that can do the same to you will result in you giving up a ton of points. A strong offensive line buys time, and a strong defensive line costs the offense time. I remember reading something in The Sporting News how Rich Gannon had on average 1.7 seconds (or something) to throw. You show me a QB that can be successful with 1.7 seconds to take the snap, drop back 3-7 steps, scan the defense, choose the best option, windup and get the ball there, and I'll show you a guy playing Rookie mode in Madden.
This is why I thought the Jake Long was the right #1 pick in the draft this year, and why I would have drafted Joe Thomas #1 last year. Were I the Lions GM then, I would have grabbed Joe Thomas over Calvin Johnson, and were I Al Davis' corpse, I would have grabbed Thomas over JaMarcus Rusell (actually, were I Al Davis, I might draft a kicker before Russell, but I digress.) I think drafting an lineman is ALMOST never a bad idea, since you gain depth, even if the player doesn't start for you right away. At any given point, there are 8-9 linemen on the field (offense and defense), representing 36% of ALL players, but's its always the skill positions that are considered the best picks.
2) I would almost NEVER draft a running back in the first round. Keeping with my philosophy that successful teams start with their line, I also view the running back position as interchangeable. Put an average running back (Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Sammy Morris, Shaun Alexander of 2006) behind a good offensive line, and you get 1,000 yards. Put an elite running back behind a sieve offensive line (Stephen Jackson last year springs to mind), and they will produce, but will not be game changers. Add to that the fact that due to wear and tear, running backs have a MUCH shorter life span than other skill positions, and I would almost always pass on selecting a running back in the first round.
3) I would NEVER draft a wide receiver in the first round. This isn't an overreaction to the failures of my predecessor drafting WR's something like 74 years in a row. WR, more than any other position besides QB, comes with a steep learning curve. Calvin Johnson, widely considered one of the most pro-ready WRs to ever come out of the draft, had less than 50 catches last year, which was considered a GOOD year for rookie WRs. I think the sky is the limit for CJ, and I have already labelled him a core player, but great WRs don't make teams Super Bowl champs on their own. History is littered with WRs that have been picked late, taken some time to develop, and become superstars. Look at today's top WR list;
Terrell Owens (3rd rounder)
Anquan Boldin (2nd rounder(did have monster rookie year, I know))
Brandon Marshall (4th rounder)
Marques Colston (243rd rounder)
Reggie Wayne (LATE 1st rounder(not saying you CAN'T find a good player there))
Is that everyone, of course not, and did I selectively chose my players? Of course! But for every Randy Moss, or Larry Fitzgerald one tosses out, you can come right back with a Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Charles Rogers or Michael Clayton (another flash in the pan). First round WRs demand huge contracts, and are usually non-productive their first 2-3 years. You get better return out of the fat-boy positions. Look, obviously, if I felt the next Jerry Rice was there, I would draft him, but I would choose a guy I thought would be the next John Hannah over him, if he were there at the same spot too.
4) QB arm strength is wildly overrated. Scouts seem to have a nerdish fascination with the size of a mans biceps. A pitcher than can throw 100mph will get MANY more chances than a guy who clocks out at 88. A QB that can throw the ball through the uprights from his knees will get more chances than a guy who can't. A guy taken at 21-23 is not who he will be, but who he IS. Players can develop arm strength (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning), but they can not develop the ability to stay cool under pressure. I would take Chad Pennington over almost any other QB in the league, and could get a prospect like him a lot later than a guy like JaMarcus Russell or Kyle Boller.
5) You should play the system that suits your players, and sign the players that suits your system. Jason David was a serviceable Tampa 2 corner in Indianapolis, and a complete and total disaster in New Orleans. Jonathan Vilma was a tackling machine when the Jets played the 4-3, not so much when they stood one of those linemen up. On day 1, you need to play with the system that best suits your players, and over time, you need to find players that play best in the system you intend to run. That is, I think, one of the keys to the Patriots success, is that they bring in guys with limitations, and then don't ask them to do things they are limited in. They don't ask Junior Seau to follow tight ends all over the field. They don't ask Richard Seymour to become Dwight Freeney. The Pats win because they put their players in the right situations, and don't try to force square pegs into round holes.
Those are some simple rules I think every team should follow, and how I would build a team.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Week 4 RB Rankings
Here are my rankings for RBs for week 4 action;
1) Marshawn Lynch
2) LaDanian Tomlinson
3) Clinton Portis
4) Marion Barber
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Reggie Bush
7) Frank Gore
8) Adrian Peterson
9) Jamal Lewis
10) Steven Jackson
11) Michael Turner
12) Jonathan Stewart
13) Chris Perry
14) Steve Slaton
15) Selvin Young
16) Larry Johnson
17) Ryan Grant
18) Matt Forte
19) Earnest Graham
20) Darren McFadden
21) Edgerrin James
22) Pierre Thomas
23) Thomas Jones
24) Micheal Pittman
25) Chris Johnson
I have Lynch ahead of LT, because I see San Diego getting up 30-6 at the half, and resting LT. At least that's my hope, as I go against him in my league. It's Bush v Gore 2008, and Bush narrowly comes out ahead this time again. New Orleans has a decent run defense, and I could see Bush catching 10 passes and rushing for another 60-70 yards. Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup this week. That game might actually feature a combined running back line that will look like this; 42/57/0. Ugly stuff, but you still have to start him. Selvin Young should see plenty of action against the woeful Chiefs. Larry Johnson stinks, and if you are Mike Shannahan, who are you scheming for, Larry Johnson, or Damon Huard? McFadden is running against a surprisingly mortal San Diego defense, I see a huge variability in that game. Chris Johnson could see a lot of full backfields, and catch 5-8 passes this weekend, making him worth a look against an otherwise insanely tough run defense.
1) Marshawn Lynch
2) LaDanian Tomlinson
3) Clinton Portis
4) Marion Barber
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Reggie Bush
7) Frank Gore
8) Adrian Peterson
9) Jamal Lewis
10) Steven Jackson
11) Michael Turner
12) Jonathan Stewart
13) Chris Perry
14) Steve Slaton
15) Selvin Young
16) Larry Johnson
17) Ryan Grant
18) Matt Forte
19) Earnest Graham
20) Darren McFadden
21) Edgerrin James
22) Pierre Thomas
23) Thomas Jones
24) Micheal Pittman
25) Chris Johnson
I have Lynch ahead of LT, because I see San Diego getting up 30-6 at the half, and resting LT. At least that's my hope, as I go against him in my league. It's Bush v Gore 2008, and Bush narrowly comes out ahead this time again. New Orleans has a decent run defense, and I could see Bush catching 10 passes and rushing for another 60-70 yards. Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup this week. That game might actually feature a combined running back line that will look like this; 42/57/0. Ugly stuff, but you still have to start him. Selvin Young should see plenty of action against the woeful Chiefs. Larry Johnson stinks, and if you are Mike Shannahan, who are you scheming for, Larry Johnson, or Damon Huard? McFadden is running against a surprisingly mortal San Diego defense, I see a huge variability in that game. Chris Johnson could see a lot of full backfields, and catch 5-8 passes this weekend, making him worth a look against an otherwise insanely tough run defense.
Week 4 QB Rankings
Guys,
Here are my rankings, and pithy banter to follow, for QBs this week;
1) Donovan McNabb
2) Drew Brees
3) Jay Cutler
4) Kurt Warner
5) Tony Romo
6) Carson Palmer
7) JT O'Sullivan
8) Philip Rivers
9) Trent Edwards
10) Jason Campbell
11) Jake Delhomme
12) Brett Favre
13) David Garrard
14) Derek Anderson
15) Kerry Collins
I have McNabb here for two reasons; first, I think Westbrook will be out, and they will run less as a result. Secondly, you CAN'T run on Chicago last week, but their secondary is vulnerable. I could see Andy Reid dialing up 50 passes, which will translate into LOTS of yards and two or three scores. Brees has a decent matchup, but he loses Shockey. I love Jay Cutler's matchup, since Kansas City can't stop anyone, but therein lies the problem. I think Denver is going to get a quick lead, and run the ball twenty-five times in the second half. Cutler could average like four fantasy points per pass, and still only get three attempts on the game. Kansas City is that bad against the run. Rivers has exploded so far this year, but Oakland does have a pretty good pass defense, outside of DeAngelo Hall, and you run on the Raiders as much as you can anyways. Jason Campbell is a guy I have alot of hopes for, and Dallas hasn't stopped anyone this year. I could see him as the #1 guy as easily as I could see him in this spot, but I try to order by safest production, not highest upside. Joseph Addai couldn't run on Minnesota, do you really think Lendale White is going to? Kerry Collins sneaks on the list.
Here are my rankings, and pithy banter to follow, for QBs this week;
1) Donovan McNabb
2) Drew Brees
3) Jay Cutler
4) Kurt Warner
5) Tony Romo
6) Carson Palmer
7) JT O'Sullivan
8) Philip Rivers
9) Trent Edwards
10) Jason Campbell
11) Jake Delhomme
12) Brett Favre
13) David Garrard
14) Derek Anderson
15) Kerry Collins
I have McNabb here for two reasons; first, I think Westbrook will be out, and they will run less as a result. Secondly, you CAN'T run on Chicago last week, but their secondary is vulnerable. I could see Andy Reid dialing up 50 passes, which will translate into LOTS of yards and two or three scores. Brees has a decent matchup, but he loses Shockey. I love Jay Cutler's matchup, since Kansas City can't stop anyone, but therein lies the problem. I think Denver is going to get a quick lead, and run the ball twenty-five times in the second half. Cutler could average like four fantasy points per pass, and still only get three attempts on the game. Kansas City is that bad against the run. Rivers has exploded so far this year, but Oakland does have a pretty good pass defense, outside of DeAngelo Hall, and you run on the Raiders as much as you can anyways. Jason Campbell is a guy I have alot of hopes for, and Dallas hasn't stopped anyone this year. I could see him as the #1 guy as easily as I could see him in this spot, but I try to order by safest production, not highest upside. Joseph Addai couldn't run on Minnesota, do you really think Lendale White is going to? Kerry Collins sneaks on the list.
The Fantasy Men Trade Roy Williams
As a continuation of our dismantling of the Detroit Lions, The Fantasy Men are trading WR Roy Williams to the Philadelphia Eagles, in exchange for Philadelphia's 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft. With Tom Brady out for the year, and the Colts looking pretty bad, Philadelphia has to be considered a top six or seven favorite to win the Super Bowl this year. This move solidifies their offense, and gives Donovan McNabb a level-headed superstar wide receiver that he has never had. On the Lions end, this move gives us an extra first day draft pick next year, that could be packaged with our own second rounder to acquire an extra first rounder, or used to add depth. For all his talent, Roy Williams doesn't help us get towards our long term goal, targeting three years down the road. Mike Furrey will be elevated to the starting role opposite Calvin Johnson, one of the legitimate building blocks of this team. We don't think he will perform as well as the #2 as he would out of the slot, but we aren't so much interested in winning games this year.
To fill the vacated roster spot, we will sign recently released WR Mark Bradley to a three year deal.
To fill the vacated roster spot, we will sign recently released WR Mark Bradley to a three year deal.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
The Fantasy Men Trade Jon Kitna
Our first move with the Detroit Lions will be to trade away quarterback Jon Kitna. Few teams in the league are interested in trading for a QB mid-season, but fortunately there is one team in our division with bad management, and a glaring need at the QB spot; the Minnesota Vikings. So we are trading Jon Kitna to the Minnesota Vikings for a 5th round pick in the 2009 draft. At this time, we are also exploring the possibility of trading WR Roy Williams to the Philadelphia Eagles or Seattle Seahawks (or maybe both, if we can confuse them!). Details will be forthcoming, if a move happens.
Jon Kitna is a serviceable enough quarterback in the right offense, and with a good enough offensive line, he can still be a weapon. Kitna has passed for over 3,000 yards six times in his career, and has 20+ TDs 3 times. Kitna turns a mediocre Vikings team into the best team in the NFC north, and a team with a decent chance of winning the NFC. In Detroit, he is just preventing Dan Orlovsky and/or Drew Stanton from playing, and is probably only bringing Detroit from 3-13 to 4-12 or so. Kitna is, by all accounts, a smart player, and should be able to pick up the Vikings offense by the end of next month or so, and get a chance to start eight games or so before the playoffs. This move will also lengthen the career of one Adrian Peterson, the biggest asset the Vikings have, by removing defenders from the box, and turning 8 man fronts into six and seven man fronts. Kitna is also a better fit for a Martz, let's get the QB killed offense, then he would be for the power offense that we will be installing in Detroit.
Note that Jon Kitna's projected cap hit for 2008 is $5.875mm. Per my understanding of the rules, we will absorb the full amount this year, and erase him from the books next season. Given that we are not signing anyone this year of note, that won't be a problem.
Jon Kitna is a serviceable enough quarterback in the right offense, and with a good enough offensive line, he can still be a weapon. Kitna has passed for over 3,000 yards six times in his career, and has 20+ TDs 3 times. Kitna turns a mediocre Vikings team into the best team in the NFC north, and a team with a decent chance of winning the NFC. In Detroit, he is just preventing Dan Orlovsky and/or Drew Stanton from playing, and is probably only bringing Detroit from 3-13 to 4-12 or so. Kitna is, by all accounts, a smart player, and should be able to pick up the Vikings offense by the end of next month or so, and get a chance to start eight games or so before the playoffs. This move will also lengthen the career of one Adrian Peterson, the biggest asset the Vikings have, by removing defenders from the box, and turning 8 man fronts into six and seven man fronts. Kitna is also a better fit for a Martz, let's get the QB killed offense, then he would be for the power offense that we will be installing in Detroit.
Note that Jon Kitna's projected cap hit for 2008 is $5.875mm. Per my understanding of the rules, we will absorb the full amount this year, and erase him from the books next season. Given that we are not signing anyone this year of note, that won't be a problem.
Breaking News: Matt Millen Out in Detroit
Matt Millen is finally getting the can for his efforts over the years.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3606294
I want everyone to know that this in no way relates to my adoption of the Lions as a reclamation project. When the Lions contact me, and bring me in for interviews, I will of course share information with our loyal reader.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3606294
I want everyone to know that this in no way relates to my adoption of the Lions as a reclamation project. When the Lions contact me, and bring me in for interviews, I will of course share information with our loyal reader.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
UH OHH Where did all my WR go?
This post come out of my own wrong doing for my team. I have been filling my roster with you talented RBs, and having trade away one WR, then loosing Nate Burleson to IR. I find myself looking for WR in and around the 15% owned department on ESPN to try and fill in on bye weeks. Here is a list of some of the players I feel that can be a good grab if you are looking to fill a WR spot to get you through bye weeks.
Chansi Stuckey NYJ
16.6% owned
Stuckey is the 3rd WR on the Jets, but has been a great target for Farve. He has caught a TD in each of the last 3 games. he also has very favorable match-ups against bad defenses, in the coming weeks. BUf is the only top 10 defense that the Jets will see in the next 7 weeks.
ARI, Bye, CIN, @OAK, KC,@ BUF, STL
Brandon Lloyd CHI
8.0% owned
Broke out in week 3 for 6 rec for 124 yards and 1 TD. His number looks good and not really any bad match-ups. the only knock I have for him is that he plays for CHI, but with Forte running the ball so well, it might open up the passing game for him to catch some more balls.
PHI. @ DET, @ ATL, MIN, Bye, DET, TEN
SEA
Bobby Engram
40.2
Deion Branch
18.6
Both are expected to return week 5 and both can be nice surprises depending on how they have recover from their injuries. A lot of owners has held on to Engram waiting for his return and if you are in a league with an owner like that you would will most likely have better options in your FA pool then what you see on this list. Branch has yet to live up to his big contract and I don't think he will, but he is still a solid WR His recovery from his knee injury should make it harder for him to that contract. Don't get me wrong i do think Branch is a good WR, but SEA gave up way too much and is paying too much for him. If you need a WR to fill in a few weeks and if one of them is healthy ,they should be able to do the job for you.
BYE, @ NYG, GB, @TB, @ SF, PHI, @ MIA
BUF
Josh Reed
1.2
Roscoe Parrish
4.3
Josh Reed is the number 2 WR for the Bills but Parrish has been better the better WR at finding the end-zone. Reed will get you point with more receptions and yardage. Parrish does kick and punt returns, and score more touchdowns. this is another pretty much a coin flip between the two in my book. If you are looking at the 2 of them I would consider how your leagues scores for the WR position. If you reward highly for return yard then go with Parrish, if you are high on receptions and yards go with Reed.
@STL, @ARI, bye, SD, @MIA, NYJ, @NE
None of the players above will bring your team to the promise land, but to get you though the dog days of the bye weeks. they have the ability to step in and give you a few points and maybe win a game or two for you, but most likely they wont and you still loose.
Chansi Stuckey NYJ
16.6% owned
Stuckey is the 3rd WR on the Jets, but has been a great target for Farve. He has caught a TD in each of the last 3 games. he also has very favorable match-ups against bad defenses, in the coming weeks. BUf is the only top 10 defense that the Jets will see in the next 7 weeks.
ARI, Bye, CIN, @OAK, KC,@ BUF, STL
Brandon Lloyd CHI
8.0% owned
Broke out in week 3 for 6 rec for 124 yards and 1 TD. His number looks good and not really any bad match-ups. the only knock I have for him is that he plays for CHI, but with Forte running the ball so well, it might open up the passing game for him to catch some more balls.
PHI. @ DET, @ ATL, MIN, Bye, DET, TEN
SEA
Bobby Engram
40.2
Deion Branch
18.6
Both are expected to return week 5 and both can be nice surprises depending on how they have recover from their injuries. A lot of owners has held on to Engram waiting for his return and if you are in a league with an owner like that you would will most likely have better options in your FA pool then what you see on this list. Branch has yet to live up to his big contract and I don't think he will, but he is still a solid WR His recovery from his knee injury should make it harder for him to that contract. Don't get me wrong i do think Branch is a good WR, but SEA gave up way too much and is paying too much for him. If you need a WR to fill in a few weeks and if one of them is healthy ,they should be able to do the job for you.
BYE, @ NYG, GB, @TB, @ SF, PHI, @ MIA
BUF
Josh Reed
1.2
Roscoe Parrish
4.3
Josh Reed is the number 2 WR for the Bills but Parrish has been better the better WR at finding the end-zone. Reed will get you point with more receptions and yardage. Parrish does kick and punt returns, and score more touchdowns. this is another pretty much a coin flip between the two in my book. If you are looking at the 2 of them I would consider how your leagues scores for the WR position. If you reward highly for return yard then go with Parrish, if you are high on receptions and yards go with Reed.
@STL, @ARI, bye, SD, @MIA, NYJ, @NE
None of the players above will bring your team to the promise land, but to get you though the dog days of the bye weeks. they have the ability to step in and give you a few points and maybe win a game or two for you, but most likely they wont and you still loose.
The Fantasy Men's Detroit Lions Challenge
Like Jigsaw, from the Saw series of movies, I want to play a game. Only this time, no one will get strung up in razor wire, or stuck in a blast furnace, expect possibly Matt Millen. I have decided that this blog will adopt the Detroit Lions, as kind of our Ameri-Cares charity case. I will lay out the situation, detail who I would draft were I the Lions GM, and explain which free agents I would target. A couple of rules will apply;
1) All free agents will have to be signed for whatever contract they agreed to. I understand that it would probably take millions more to convince someone to come to Detroit (lovely city, by the way), but for purposes of our "study" we have to make some simplifying assumptions.
2) The proposed trades I will make have to at least have some feasible basis in reality. A kicker for the next twenty-three years worth of Indy's first round picks would probably not work, but Roy Williams for the Eagles second next year, might.
That's it.
1) All free agents will have to be signed for whatever contract they agreed to. I understand that it would probably take millions more to convince someone to come to Detroit (lovely city, by the way), but for purposes of our "study" we have to make some simplifying assumptions.
2) The proposed trades I will make have to at least have some feasible basis in reality. A kicker for the next twenty-three years worth of Indy's first round picks would probably not work, but Roy Williams for the Eagles second next year, might.
That's it.
Monday, September 22, 2008
He Gets Paid for This?
Eric Karabell, writing on ESPN.com about Ronnie Brown's value going forward, unleashed this stink-nugget of information;
"He should remain a capable fantasy asset, a No. 2 running back most weeks I would think, but I'd rather have (Michael) Turner. Nothing against Brown, but he will have good and bad moments in 2008 as he needs to overcome at times his quarterback, his recovering knee and a potential timeshare of carries."
Fair enough, I'm not ready to anoint Ronnie Brown this year's LT of 2006, but let's look at his preferences.
1) "Needs to overcome his quarterback." I LOVE Chad Pennington. As a Pats fan, there are two quarterbacks in the league that have scared me since 2001 (prior, EVERY quarterback in the league scared me, cause we were starting Drew Bledsoe, but I digest); Peyton Manning and Chad Pennington. We saw why yesterday. The Pats D had a bad scheme, but Pennington made every throw asked of him, and he gets the ball where he wants it to go. 17 of 20 is a great line, regardless of whether he can throw the 42 yard out route that bad scouts seem to fall in love with. Chad Pennington is in rarefied air with his career completion percentage, and has played well against the Pats. On the other hand, you have...Matt Ryan, a rookie. Did I miss something here?
2) "Potential timeshare of carries." Sure, Ronnie Brown is splitting carries with Ricky Williams. Backing up Michael Turner is Jerious Norwood, the guy that has averaged 6 yards a carry over the last couple of seasons, while Ricky Williams has been averaging 6 spliffs a week.
There are other issues working in Ronnie Browns favor that Karabell doesn't even mention.
1) (Or should it be 3?) Miami has a SOLID offensive line. Samson Satele was a revelation last year at center, and in the draft, the Dolphins added the guy I thought should have been the #1 pick (I know he went #1, I am saying good pick), in Jake Long. He looks like as complete a player as last year's star rookie left tackle (see Thomas, Joe) or 2006's star rookie LT (see McNeill, Marcus). Vernon Carey is also an effective run blocker.
2) Ronnie Brown catches passes. Lots of passes. In 38 career games, Ronnie Brown has 110 catches. I am no mathlete, but I think that works out to about 2.8947368421 catches per game, for an average of 8.7 yards per catch. Michael Turner, in 62 games, has 13 catches, for an average (again, no mathlete here), of, I think, 0.20967741935 catches per game, with a 6.4 yard per catch average. In terms even Eric Karabell could understand, Ronnie Brown averages ALMOST 14 times as many catches per game as Michael Turner. I'm not touting Ronnie Brown as the second coming of Reggie Bush (he's better than Bush, trust me), but those 2.89... catches for 8.7 yards per catch works out to 25 yards per game in the air. That's 2, or 2.5 points (plus more if you are in a PPR league) a game in Ronnie Brown's "coolness account" that Micheal Turner doesn't have. Plus, the ability to catch passes means that Ronnie Brown will be on the field on 3rd and 7 situations, when Michael Turner will be thinking about the next drive.
3) Miami faces a better run schedule. Here is a smattering of Ronnie Brown's weak opponents over the coming two months; Texans, Broncos, Seahawks, Raiders, Pats, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs. The Falcons face; ...the Raiders and Broncos. Their other weak run-D opponent comes in week 17, against the Rams, so they aren't counted here. In the meantime, he gets to run against Tampa Bay again, Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Green Bay, Eagles and the Vikings in the week 16 championship game. Given that slate of absolutely BRUTAL schedules, why exactly is Eric Karabell telling you to sell high on a guy like Brown?
The fact is, when healthy, Ronnie Brown is among the most talented backs in the game. In terms of pure talent, I rank them as something like this;
Adrian Peterson
LaDanian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Ronnie Brown
Clinton Portis
And that is arguable, of course, but he might even have more TALENT than LT. His production has not matched LT's, but LT has had the luxury of running behind a great offensive line with a good QB, and a great TE and serviceable receivers. Miami has had a bad line, until the last 15 games, with Chris Chambers as the only WR on the roster capable of running a route, with guys that sound like porn stars (AJ Feely, Cleo Lemon, John Beck) manning the QB position.
The fact is, Ronnie Brown is a GREAT running back, who might finally get the attention he deserves after his explosion against the Patriots. Hold on to Ronnie Brown unless the offer blows you away, just make sure you keep your fingers crossed.
"He should remain a capable fantasy asset, a No. 2 running back most weeks I would think, but I'd rather have (Michael) Turner. Nothing against Brown, but he will have good and bad moments in 2008 as he needs to overcome at times his quarterback, his recovering knee and a potential timeshare of carries."
Fair enough, I'm not ready to anoint Ronnie Brown this year's LT of 2006, but let's look at his preferences.
1) "Needs to overcome his quarterback." I LOVE Chad Pennington. As a Pats fan, there are two quarterbacks in the league that have scared me since 2001 (prior, EVERY quarterback in the league scared me, cause we were starting Drew Bledsoe, but I digest); Peyton Manning and Chad Pennington. We saw why yesterday. The Pats D had a bad scheme, but Pennington made every throw asked of him, and he gets the ball where he wants it to go. 17 of 20 is a great line, regardless of whether he can throw the 42 yard out route that bad scouts seem to fall in love with. Chad Pennington is in rarefied air with his career completion percentage, and has played well against the Pats. On the other hand, you have...Matt Ryan, a rookie. Did I miss something here?
2) "Potential timeshare of carries." Sure, Ronnie Brown is splitting carries with Ricky Williams. Backing up Michael Turner is Jerious Norwood, the guy that has averaged 6 yards a carry over the last couple of seasons, while Ricky Williams has been averaging 6 spliffs a week.
There are other issues working in Ronnie Browns favor that Karabell doesn't even mention.
1) (Or should it be 3?) Miami has a SOLID offensive line. Samson Satele was a revelation last year at center, and in the draft, the Dolphins added the guy I thought should have been the #1 pick (I know he went #1, I am saying good pick), in Jake Long. He looks like as complete a player as last year's star rookie left tackle (see Thomas, Joe) or 2006's star rookie LT (see McNeill, Marcus). Vernon Carey is also an effective run blocker.
2) Ronnie Brown catches passes. Lots of passes. In 38 career games, Ronnie Brown has 110 catches. I am no mathlete, but I think that works out to about 2.8947368421 catches per game, for an average of 8.7 yards per catch. Michael Turner, in 62 games, has 13 catches, for an average (again, no mathlete here), of, I think, 0.20967741935 catches per game, with a 6.4 yard per catch average. In terms even Eric Karabell could understand, Ronnie Brown averages ALMOST 14 times as many catches per game as Michael Turner. I'm not touting Ronnie Brown as the second coming of Reggie Bush (he's better than Bush, trust me), but those 2.89... catches for 8.7 yards per catch works out to 25 yards per game in the air. That's 2, or 2.5 points (plus more if you are in a PPR league) a game in Ronnie Brown's "coolness account" that Micheal Turner doesn't have. Plus, the ability to catch passes means that Ronnie Brown will be on the field on 3rd and 7 situations, when Michael Turner will be thinking about the next drive.
3) Miami faces a better run schedule. Here is a smattering of Ronnie Brown's weak opponents over the coming two months; Texans, Broncos, Seahawks, Raiders, Pats, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs. The Falcons face; ...the Raiders and Broncos. Their other weak run-D opponent comes in week 17, against the Rams, so they aren't counted here. In the meantime, he gets to run against Tampa Bay again, Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Green Bay, Eagles and the Vikings in the week 16 championship game. Given that slate of absolutely BRUTAL schedules, why exactly is Eric Karabell telling you to sell high on a guy like Brown?
The fact is, when healthy, Ronnie Brown is among the most talented backs in the game. In terms of pure talent, I rank them as something like this;
Adrian Peterson
LaDanian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Ronnie Brown
Clinton Portis
And that is arguable, of course, but he might even have more TALENT than LT. His production has not matched LT's, but LT has had the luxury of running behind a great offensive line with a good QB, and a great TE and serviceable receivers. Miami has had a bad line, until the last 15 games, with Chris Chambers as the only WR on the roster capable of running a route, with guys that sound like porn stars (AJ Feely, Cleo Lemon, John Beck) manning the QB position.
The fact is, Ronnie Brown is a GREAT running back, who might finally get the attention he deserves after his explosion against the Patriots. Hold on to Ronnie Brown unless the offer blows you away, just make sure you keep your fingers crossed.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Week 3 RB Rankings
Guys,
Here is my take on the RB's in Week 3.
1) Frank Gore
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Brandon Jacobs
5) Clinton Portis
6) Brian Westbrook
7) LaDanian Tomlinson*
8) Marion Barber
9) Willie Parker
10) Reggie Bush
11) Joseph Addai
12) Stephen Jackson
13) Julius Jones
14) Chris Johnson
15) Maurice Jones Drew
16) Michael Turner
17) Darren McFadden*
18) Kevin Smith
19) Matt Forte
20) Thomas Jones
21) Lendale White
22) Ryan Grant*
23) Willis McGahee
24) Sammy Morris
25) Larry Johnson
26) Jonathan Stewart
27) Earnest Graham
28) Edgerrin James
29) Selvin Young
30) Fred Taylor
Tough matchups for a bunch of otherwise very good running backs (Westbrook v Pittsburgh, Forte v Tampa Bay, Stewart v Minnesota, Graham v Chicago...). Gore has a dream matchup, and should be relied on heavily to keep Detroit off the field (!?) and to wear down that already crummy defense. The asterisks on LT and McFadden and Grant mean they are serious injury risks, due to two turf toes and a bum hammy, respectively. Watch the Sunday morning shows before plugging them in. I don't like Reggie Bush as a RB, but I love him as a WR in the backfield, which he will be this week against Denver. I would have put Pierre Thomas in these rankings, but I expect New Orleans to fall behind early, and for Thomas to get no more than 10 carries. He can catch (as he proved last year in Week 17), but if you are going to have a running back out there catching passes, I think Bush is the better option, and should see many more snaps. I know Jacksonville is missing two guards, but right now, Indianapolis is looking like the Indy of old, AND Bob Sanders is on an involuntary vacation, so Steve and I could probably go for a buck fifty against these guys. I like McFadden against Buffalo, but I would like to see more 4 and 5 yard carries, rather than a stat line of 2, 1, 0, 1, -2, 19, 3, 1, 32, 0, -3. Earnest Graham and Jonathan Stewart are two talented RB's, drawing the hardest pair of run defenses in the league. I have Stewart one spot higher, because I could see Carolina jumping up 21 to 9 at the half and running the ball 30 times in the second half. One of those might get broken for a long one. Selvin Young goes against a (surprisingly) decent run defense, and I would rather move the ball in 20 yard chunks than 2-3 yard chunks. All the same, maybe HE gets the garbage goal line carries instead of Pittman this week. I think I may have Fred Taylor too low, but MJD gets the goal line carries that are the key to fantasy production.
Note that if LaDanian Tomlinson is limited, Darren Sproles becomes the #7 projected back. Sproles is obviously not the talent LT is, but if LT is starting, I still think he will only get 12-16 carries and a few looks. If LT is limited, Sproles should get something like 15-20 carries, so Sproles were turn more looks into about the same points (not counting special teams production).
Here is my take on the RB's in Week 3.
1) Frank Gore
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Brandon Jacobs
5) Clinton Portis
6) Brian Westbrook
7) LaDanian Tomlinson*
8) Marion Barber
9) Willie Parker
10) Reggie Bush
11) Joseph Addai
12) Stephen Jackson
13) Julius Jones
14) Chris Johnson
15) Maurice Jones Drew
16) Michael Turner
17) Darren McFadden*
18) Kevin Smith
19) Matt Forte
20) Thomas Jones
21) Lendale White
22) Ryan Grant*
23) Willis McGahee
24) Sammy Morris
25) Larry Johnson
26) Jonathan Stewart
27) Earnest Graham
28) Edgerrin James
29) Selvin Young
30) Fred Taylor
Tough matchups for a bunch of otherwise very good running backs (Westbrook v Pittsburgh, Forte v Tampa Bay, Stewart v Minnesota, Graham v Chicago...). Gore has a dream matchup, and should be relied on heavily to keep Detroit off the field (!?) and to wear down that already crummy defense. The asterisks on LT and McFadden and Grant mean they are serious injury risks, due to two turf toes and a bum hammy, respectively. Watch the Sunday morning shows before plugging them in. I don't like Reggie Bush as a RB, but I love him as a WR in the backfield, which he will be this week against Denver. I would have put Pierre Thomas in these rankings, but I expect New Orleans to fall behind early, and for Thomas to get no more than 10 carries. He can catch (as he proved last year in Week 17), but if you are going to have a running back out there catching passes, I think Bush is the better option, and should see many more snaps. I know Jacksonville is missing two guards, but right now, Indianapolis is looking like the Indy of old, AND Bob Sanders is on an involuntary vacation, so Steve and I could probably go for a buck fifty against these guys. I like McFadden against Buffalo, but I would like to see more 4 and 5 yard carries, rather than a stat line of 2, 1, 0, 1, -2, 19, 3, 1, 32, 0, -3. Earnest Graham and Jonathan Stewart are two talented RB's, drawing the hardest pair of run defenses in the league. I have Stewart one spot higher, because I could see Carolina jumping up 21 to 9 at the half and running the ball 30 times in the second half. One of those might get broken for a long one. Selvin Young goes against a (surprisingly) decent run defense, and I would rather move the ball in 20 yard chunks than 2-3 yard chunks. All the same, maybe HE gets the garbage goal line carries instead of Pittman this week. I think I may have Fred Taylor too low, but MJD gets the goal line carries that are the key to fantasy production.
Note that if LaDanian Tomlinson is limited, Darren Sproles becomes the #7 projected back. Sproles is obviously not the talent LT is, but if LT is starting, I still think he will only get 12-16 carries and a few looks. If LT is limited, Sproles should get something like 15-20 carries, so Sproles were turn more looks into about the same points (not counting special teams production).
Week 3 WR Rankings
Guys,
Here is my take on the WR options for Week 3. WR's are MUCH harder to predict than RB's and QB's, I think. Look at last week's Arizona-Miami game. Larry Fitzgerald couldn't be covered, and he finished with 6 catches for 150 yards or so. Anquan Boldin ALSO couldn't be covered, and he got the 3 TD's in the deal. Did anyone think that Anquan Boldin played 2 or 3 times better in that game than Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is the better receiver, as good as Boldin is, and one week's touchdown bonanza shouldn't alter that fact.
1) Terrell Owens
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Plaxico Burress
4) Calvin Johnson
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Larry Fitzgerald
7) Randy Moss
8) Andre Johnson
9) Anquan Boldin
10) Steve Smith
11) Roy Williams
12) Santonio Holmes
13) Donald Driver
14) T.J Houshmandzadeh
15) Dwayne Bowe
16) Braylon Edwards
17) Wes Welker
18) Greg Jennings
19) Hines Ward
20) Jerricho Cotchery
21) Torry Holt
22) Chad Johnson
23) Roddy White
24) DeSean Jackson
25) Santana Moss
26) Isaac Bruce
27) Eddie Royal
28) Anthony Gonzalez
29) Patrick Crayton
30) Matt Jones
Greg Jennings v Donald Driver is a classic case of the situation I illustrated above. Last year, Driver had over 80 catches, Jennings has 50, but since Jennings had the harder to predict touchdowns, he is ranked more highly than Driver? I still think Driver is the better receiver, and this ranking reflects that. Owens will be the #1 WR every week until someone proves they can supplant him. Brandon Marshall shouldn't have 18 catches this week (that's really going out on a limb!), but he, Royal, Stokely and Scheffler could combine for 30. Calvin Johnson has been unbelievable these first two weeks, and I think Nate Clements will be covering Roy Williams, hence the large disparity between their rankings. Randy Moss could get open against Miami, but I don't think New England will need to take that many chances down field. He could serve as the league's best decoy for the second straight week. Steve Smith draws a dream matchup this week, and could be eager to earn his teammates forgiveness, other than that guy he punched out in the preseason. Braylon Edwards has been the victim of a bad matchup and bad weather. He drops a lot of passes, but he is freakishly talented, and Baltimore CAN'T be run on. Someone has to catch all those passes from J.T O'Sullivan, and I think it's going to be a combo of Isaac Bruce and Vernon Davis. Davis is a good blocker, and Detroit doesn't have the pass rush that would require Davis to stay in and block against. He could be free to roam for 8-12 targets this week. Marvin Harrison doesn't make my top 30, since I think that Gonzalez has ALREADY supplanted him as Peyton's favorite guy not named Reggie Wayne.
Here is my take on the WR options for Week 3. WR's are MUCH harder to predict than RB's and QB's, I think. Look at last week's Arizona-Miami game. Larry Fitzgerald couldn't be covered, and he finished with 6 catches for 150 yards or so. Anquan Boldin ALSO couldn't be covered, and he got the 3 TD's in the deal. Did anyone think that Anquan Boldin played 2 or 3 times better in that game than Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is the better receiver, as good as Boldin is, and one week's touchdown bonanza shouldn't alter that fact.
1) Terrell Owens
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Plaxico Burress
4) Calvin Johnson
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Larry Fitzgerald
7) Randy Moss
8) Andre Johnson
9) Anquan Boldin
10) Steve Smith
11) Roy Williams
12) Santonio Holmes
13) Donald Driver
14) T.J Houshmandzadeh
15) Dwayne Bowe
16) Braylon Edwards
17) Wes Welker
18) Greg Jennings
19) Hines Ward
20) Jerricho Cotchery
21) Torry Holt
22) Chad Johnson
23) Roddy White
24) DeSean Jackson
25) Santana Moss
26) Isaac Bruce
27) Eddie Royal
28) Anthony Gonzalez
29) Patrick Crayton
30) Matt Jones
Greg Jennings v Donald Driver is a classic case of the situation I illustrated above. Last year, Driver had over 80 catches, Jennings has 50, but since Jennings had the harder to predict touchdowns, he is ranked more highly than Driver? I still think Driver is the better receiver, and this ranking reflects that. Owens will be the #1 WR every week until someone proves they can supplant him. Brandon Marshall shouldn't have 18 catches this week (that's really going out on a limb!), but he, Royal, Stokely and Scheffler could combine for 30. Calvin Johnson has been unbelievable these first two weeks, and I think Nate Clements will be covering Roy Williams, hence the large disparity between their rankings. Randy Moss could get open against Miami, but I don't think New England will need to take that many chances down field. He could serve as the league's best decoy for the second straight week. Steve Smith draws a dream matchup this week, and could be eager to earn his teammates forgiveness, other than that guy he punched out in the preseason. Braylon Edwards has been the victim of a bad matchup and bad weather. He drops a lot of passes, but he is freakishly talented, and Baltimore CAN'T be run on. Someone has to catch all those passes from J.T O'Sullivan, and I think it's going to be a combo of Isaac Bruce and Vernon Davis. Davis is a good blocker, and Detroit doesn't have the pass rush that would require Davis to stay in and block against. He could be free to roam for 8-12 targets this week. Marvin Harrison doesn't make my top 30, since I think that Gonzalez has ALREADY supplanted him as Peyton's favorite guy not named Reggie Wayne.
Week 3 QB Rankings
One mans take on the week 3 QB rankings. As a matter of process, I probably attach more importance to the matchup than the typical fantasy guy, so these rankings may differ slightly (or substantially!) from other rankings. But I suppose, if I just copied Yahoo's rankings, you could save your time and go there instead. Here they are in descending order;
1) Jay Cutler
2) Tony Romo
3) Philip Rivers
4) Kurt Warner
5) Peyton Manning
6) Aaron Rodgers
7) Drew Brees
8) Donovan McNabb
9) Jake Delhomme
10) J.T O'Sullivan
11) Ben Roethlisberger
12) Matt Cassel
13) Eli Manning
14) Jon Kitna
15) Matt Hasselbeck
Jay Cutler has been a stud so far, and he draws a very favorable matchup this week with the Saints. Philip Rivers ranking is based on the assumption that LT will be limited to 10 touches. He has 4 options in the passing game, and draws a below average defense in the Jets, AND they are 0-2. I have Delhomme ranked where he is, because Minnesota's anticipated pass rushing demons have not shown up through two weeks. Jared Allen was brought in to hurry opposing quarterbacks, and although he picked up a sack last week, I did not see him putting consistent pressure on Manning. Until the Vikings get pressure with their front four, their secondary will continue to be picked on. Also, NO ONE can run on the Vikings, and with Steve Smith back, I could see John Fox dialing up 50 pass attempts. Matt Cassel has a favorable matchup, but against a team as bad as the Dolphins, I can't see Cassel attempting more than 25 passes. He will be an effective REAL quarterback, minimizing turnovers and completing the safe play, but not a good FANTASY QB. Matt Hasselbeck is slipping with every receiver that suffers a season ending injury, but he is still drawing the Rams this week, and should still be able to put up a TD or two.
1) Jay Cutler
2) Tony Romo
3) Philip Rivers
4) Kurt Warner
5) Peyton Manning
6) Aaron Rodgers
7) Drew Brees
8) Donovan McNabb
9) Jake Delhomme
10) J.T O'Sullivan
11) Ben Roethlisberger
12) Matt Cassel
13) Eli Manning
14) Jon Kitna
15) Matt Hasselbeck
Jay Cutler has been a stud so far, and he draws a very favorable matchup this week with the Saints. Philip Rivers ranking is based on the assumption that LT will be limited to 10 touches. He has 4 options in the passing game, and draws a below average defense in the Jets, AND they are 0-2. I have Delhomme ranked where he is, because Minnesota's anticipated pass rushing demons have not shown up through two weeks. Jared Allen was brought in to hurry opposing quarterbacks, and although he picked up a sack last week, I did not see him putting consistent pressure on Manning. Until the Vikings get pressure with their front four, their secondary will continue to be picked on. Also, NO ONE can run on the Vikings, and with Steve Smith back, I could see John Fox dialing up 50 pass attempts. Matt Cassel has a favorable matchup, but against a team as bad as the Dolphins, I can't see Cassel attempting more than 25 passes. He will be an effective REAL quarterback, minimizing turnovers and completing the safe play, but not a good FANTASY QB. Matt Hasselbeck is slipping with every receiver that suffers a season ending injury, but he is still drawing the Rams this week, and should still be able to put up a TD or two.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Filene's Basement Fantasy Specials
These are guys that are owned in less than 1.0% of ESPN.com fantasy league's. Think about that, out of every one thousand leagues, some of which surely have eighteen teams and start eleven receivers, these guys are owned in less than ten.
Slim pickings? You bet. But hey, if you have to shop in these clearance bins, you're already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
WR Dane Looker (0.1% owned)
Looker is (for now) the #2 WR in St. Louis. The Ram's offense is historically inept year to date, but would you rather start a bad team's #2 or a great teams #5? Really, the #5? Well, err, in that case...
RB Heath Evans (0.1% owned)
With Cassel under center, you have to figure the Pats to run more in the red-zone. Evans is always a possibility there, and if you can get a junk touchdown from your #6 RB, I think that's a win most weeks.
TE Garrett Mills (0.2% owned)
Is he twice the player Heath Evans is, or does his mom play a lot of fantasy football? Mills was the centerpiece of the ultimate non-issue pissing contest between Bill Belichick and the Vikings. Visanthe Shiancoe can't block, catch, run or figure a 15% tip without an adding machine, so you have to figure Mills will get a small number of targets each week. Especially if the Vikings decide to abandon this whole "passing game" thing, and just run AP and Chester Taylor 75 times a week.
Miles Austin (0.4% owned)
Now we are getting into the luxury end. Austin will be Dallas' #3 WR for the time being, and that makes him worth a shot in a VERY deep league.
Jalen Parmele (0.6% owned)
The rookie is the #3 RB in Miami, behind the oft-injured Ronnie Brown, and the oft-baked Ricky Williams. He MIGHT be pressed into significant action at some point this year, and if you are scraping this low, the slight chance of busting a big run should be enough for you.
Michael Clayton (0.6% owned)
He has almost completely disappeared since his rookie season, but Joey Galloway is dinged up, and the Bucs are developing a good O-line to keep whoever is under center upright most days. He is worth potentially thinking about possibly looking into the idea of maybe picking up.
Slim pickings? You bet. But hey, if you have to shop in these clearance bins, you're already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
WR Dane Looker (0.1% owned)
Looker is (for now) the #2 WR in St. Louis. The Ram's offense is historically inept year to date, but would you rather start a bad team's #2 or a great teams #5? Really, the #5? Well, err, in that case...
RB Heath Evans (0.1% owned)
With Cassel under center, you have to figure the Pats to run more in the red-zone. Evans is always a possibility there, and if you can get a junk touchdown from your #6 RB, I think that's a win most weeks.
TE Garrett Mills (0.2% owned)
Is he twice the player Heath Evans is, or does his mom play a lot of fantasy football? Mills was the centerpiece of the ultimate non-issue pissing contest between Bill Belichick and the Vikings. Visanthe Shiancoe can't block, catch, run or figure a 15% tip without an adding machine, so you have to figure Mills will get a small number of targets each week. Especially if the Vikings decide to abandon this whole "passing game" thing, and just run AP and Chester Taylor 75 times a week.
Miles Austin (0.4% owned)
Now we are getting into the luxury end. Austin will be Dallas' #3 WR for the time being, and that makes him worth a shot in a VERY deep league.
Jalen Parmele (0.6% owned)
The rookie is the #3 RB in Miami, behind the oft-injured Ronnie Brown, and the oft-baked Ricky Williams. He MIGHT be pressed into significant action at some point this year, and if you are scraping this low, the slight chance of busting a big run should be enough for you.
Michael Clayton (0.6% owned)
He has almost completely disappeared since his rookie season, but Joey Galloway is dinged up, and the Bucs are developing a good O-line to keep whoever is under center upright most days. He is worth potentially thinking about possibly looking into the idea of maybe picking up.
Introductions
My name is Matt, and I am creating this site with my friend Steve. We are going to try and offer common-sense fantasy advice, and won't try and blow any smoke about insider knowledge of the game, pretend we know what timing routes are, or EVER be wrong about ANY selection. All predictions in this blog will be fully insured by AIG (for now), against any possibility of diminished performance. We will try and post weekly podcasts of questions we each have and hear during the week. Good luck and thanks for checking out the site!
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