Boldin or Colston

A co-worker was recently proposed a trade of either Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston for Jay Cutler (the co-worker would be the recipient of Cutler).

Near universal consensus would say that Boldin is the MUCH better option, but I told him that were I making the trade, I would give away Boldin over Colston (and this is not an insignificant point, I have both receivers on my one fantasy team.

Both Colston and Boldin are elite talents when healthy, and Colston missed a month and a half with a broken thumb, and was held without a reception in his first game back from injury. In his most recent game, he had 7 catches for 140 yards, so I think it is safe to say that he has recovered from the thumb.

My logic, or basis, for saying that I would keep Colston over Boldin is due to the inherent unpredictability of wide receiver touchdowns. Boldin has been the #1 WR in value under my fantasy league's scoring format (I think we can say he is no more than top 5 in ANY realistic scoring format). Colston, obviously would be lucky to get into the top 75, given that he has played like 3 real games.

What concerns me about Boldin is a regression to the mean happening during the season. Last week is a good example, when he had two TDs against the 49ers. His second TD "catch" was actually a screen pass, where Boldin caught the ball on the five yard line, knifed inside and under one defender, and came down 0.000000000000000001 inches inside of the end zone. In fact, his first TD was a great individual effort as well, as he juked one defender out, and ran past (or between) two more. These were great individual plays, but are also two very CLOSE plays. Imagine he comes down 0.0000000000000001 inches OUTSIDE of the end zone, or the defender juked on the first score bumps him and slows him down. Now Boldin has 5 catches for 50 yards (or something) and NO scores. Not that it did happen, but it JUST AS EASILY could have happened.

The example I bring up is of Reggie Williams from last season, when he had 38 catches and 10 TDs. In some formats, he would be a top 5 or top 10 receiver (depending on TD weight). This season he is on pace for 36 catches and 2 TDs. A lot of fantasy owners drafted him expecting 50-60 catches and 10 more TDs, and are being disappointed.

When I look at running backs, I look at TDs, since a running back that gets goal line carries can have his value highly inflated (LenWhale White, I am looking at you!). Receiver TDs however, I don't value as highly as catches and yards.

Give me a receiver with 100 catches and 2 scores over a guy with 50 catches and 9-10 scores, and I think more often than not, in the NEXT season, that 100 catch guy will VASTLY outperform the 50 catch gentleman.

In a roundabout way, I am less optimistic that Anquan Boldin will put up the points he has put up for the rest of the season, and I fear an in-season regression to the mean.