The rankings for WR in Week 4;
1) T.J Houshmandzadeh
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Larry Fitzgerald
4) Steve Smith
5) Braylon Edwards
6) Terrell Owens
7) Anquan Boldin
8) Andre Johnson
9) Santana Moss
10) Dwayne Bowe
11) Greg Jennings
12) Lee Evans
13) Isaac Bruce
14) Donald Driver
15) Chad Johnson
16) Jerricho Cotchery
17) Vincent Jackson
18) Torry Holt
19) Mushin Muhammed
20) Matt Jones
21) Chris Chambers
22) Hines Ward
23) Laveranues Coles
24) Eddie Royal
25) DeSean Jackson
26) Antonio Bryant
27) Patrick Crayton
28) Santonio Holmes
29) Josh Reed
30) Robert Meachem
How amazing is it that T.J Houshmandzadeh is the unquestionably better receiver in Cincinnati, and he was a 7th round pick? Marshall has another good matchup, and should roll up the yardage against KC. It doesn't hurt that Cutler's first reaction is to throw to him. If Braylon Edwards can't get it down this week, he is probably not going to start for another six or seven weeks. Terrell Owens has to bounce back from last weeks game, but I imagine the Washington D is going to try and replicate that formula. I have Greg Jennings lower than most other rankings, I think Tampa Bay's D is pretty good, and you don't attack cover 2 defenses with downfield speed merchants. I have Vincent Jackson over Chris Chambers this week, since I think Namdi Asomughua will play Chambers, and let DeAngelo Hall "cover" Jackson. Matt Jones is the best option against a bad Houston pass defense, so he climbs into the rankings. Josh Reed goes against a dreadful St. Louis defense, so he should be good for another 5-7 catches, and possibly a score. Robert Meachem was a first round pick last year, he needs to take advantage of these opportunities for playing time.
Friday, September 26, 2008
My Team Building Philosophy
Since I am acting-interim GM of the Lions, I have started posting on some moves that I would make were I in charge of the team. What I have not discussed, is the motive behind those moves, or the over-arching philosophy that breeds my thinking. In a couple of quick points, I will try to explain how I would build a football team, were I an actual GM.
1) Successful teams, for the most part, are built from the lines out. Look at the Browns of last year. After years of terrible, cover your eyes offensive production, they sign Eric Steinbach and draft Joe Thomas, two very good offensive linemen, and lo, they become a top five offense, and make Derek Anderson (!?) into a legit-looking NFL quarterback. They also resurrected Jamal Lewis' career, leading hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners to draft him probably four rounds before he should have been taken. Similarly, look at what the Giants defensive line did in the Super Bowl, or what the line of the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucaneers did to the Raiders in their Super Bowl win. Offense in football is ENTIRELY about time. If your QB has 9 seconds to throw, and your running back has time to get to his lane, or reverse his field, you are going to put up a ton of points, and any QB and RB combo that can do the same to you will result in you giving up a ton of points. A strong offensive line buys time, and a strong defensive line costs the offense time. I remember reading something in The Sporting News how Rich Gannon had on average 1.7 seconds (or something) to throw. You show me a QB that can be successful with 1.7 seconds to take the snap, drop back 3-7 steps, scan the defense, choose the best option, windup and get the ball there, and I'll show you a guy playing Rookie mode in Madden.
This is why I thought the Jake Long was the right #1 pick in the draft this year, and why I would have drafted Joe Thomas #1 last year. Were I the Lions GM then, I would have grabbed Joe Thomas over Calvin Johnson, and were I Al Davis' corpse, I would have grabbed Thomas over JaMarcus Rusell (actually, were I Al Davis, I might draft a kicker before Russell, but I digress.) I think drafting an lineman is ALMOST never a bad idea, since you gain depth, even if the player doesn't start for you right away. At any given point, there are 8-9 linemen on the field (offense and defense), representing 36% of ALL players, but's its always the skill positions that are considered the best picks.
2) I would almost NEVER draft a running back in the first round. Keeping with my philosophy that successful teams start with their line, I also view the running back position as interchangeable. Put an average running back (Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Sammy Morris, Shaun Alexander of 2006) behind a good offensive line, and you get 1,000 yards. Put an elite running back behind a sieve offensive line (Stephen Jackson last year springs to mind), and they will produce, but will not be game changers. Add to that the fact that due to wear and tear, running backs have a MUCH shorter life span than other skill positions, and I would almost always pass on selecting a running back in the first round.
3) I would NEVER draft a wide receiver in the first round. This isn't an overreaction to the failures of my predecessor drafting WR's something like 74 years in a row. WR, more than any other position besides QB, comes with a steep learning curve. Calvin Johnson, widely considered one of the most pro-ready WRs to ever come out of the draft, had less than 50 catches last year, which was considered a GOOD year for rookie WRs. I think the sky is the limit for CJ, and I have already labelled him a core player, but great WRs don't make teams Super Bowl champs on their own. History is littered with WRs that have been picked late, taken some time to develop, and become superstars. Look at today's top WR list;
Terrell Owens (3rd rounder)
Anquan Boldin (2nd rounder(did have monster rookie year, I know))
Brandon Marshall (4th rounder)
Marques Colston (243rd rounder)
Reggie Wayne (LATE 1st rounder(not saying you CAN'T find a good player there))
Is that everyone, of course not, and did I selectively chose my players? Of course! But for every Randy Moss, or Larry Fitzgerald one tosses out, you can come right back with a Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Charles Rogers or Michael Clayton (another flash in the pan). First round WRs demand huge contracts, and are usually non-productive their first 2-3 years. You get better return out of the fat-boy positions. Look, obviously, if I felt the next Jerry Rice was there, I would draft him, but I would choose a guy I thought would be the next John Hannah over him, if he were there at the same spot too.
4) QB arm strength is wildly overrated. Scouts seem to have a nerdish fascination with the size of a mans biceps. A pitcher than can throw 100mph will get MANY more chances than a guy who clocks out at 88. A QB that can throw the ball through the uprights from his knees will get more chances than a guy who can't. A guy taken at 21-23 is not who he will be, but who he IS. Players can develop arm strength (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning), but they can not develop the ability to stay cool under pressure. I would take Chad Pennington over almost any other QB in the league, and could get a prospect like him a lot later than a guy like JaMarcus Russell or Kyle Boller.
5) You should play the system that suits your players, and sign the players that suits your system. Jason David was a serviceable Tampa 2 corner in Indianapolis, and a complete and total disaster in New Orleans. Jonathan Vilma was a tackling machine when the Jets played the 4-3, not so much when they stood one of those linemen up. On day 1, you need to play with the system that best suits your players, and over time, you need to find players that play best in the system you intend to run. That is, I think, one of the keys to the Patriots success, is that they bring in guys with limitations, and then don't ask them to do things they are limited in. They don't ask Junior Seau to follow tight ends all over the field. They don't ask Richard Seymour to become Dwight Freeney. The Pats win because they put their players in the right situations, and don't try to force square pegs into round holes.
Those are some simple rules I think every team should follow, and how I would build a team.
1) Successful teams, for the most part, are built from the lines out. Look at the Browns of last year. After years of terrible, cover your eyes offensive production, they sign Eric Steinbach and draft Joe Thomas, two very good offensive linemen, and lo, they become a top five offense, and make Derek Anderson (!?) into a legit-looking NFL quarterback. They also resurrected Jamal Lewis' career, leading hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners to draft him probably four rounds before he should have been taken. Similarly, look at what the Giants defensive line did in the Super Bowl, or what the line of the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucaneers did to the Raiders in their Super Bowl win. Offense in football is ENTIRELY about time. If your QB has 9 seconds to throw, and your running back has time to get to his lane, or reverse his field, you are going to put up a ton of points, and any QB and RB combo that can do the same to you will result in you giving up a ton of points. A strong offensive line buys time, and a strong defensive line costs the offense time. I remember reading something in The Sporting News how Rich Gannon had on average 1.7 seconds (or something) to throw. You show me a QB that can be successful with 1.7 seconds to take the snap, drop back 3-7 steps, scan the defense, choose the best option, windup and get the ball there, and I'll show you a guy playing Rookie mode in Madden.
This is why I thought the Jake Long was the right #1 pick in the draft this year, and why I would have drafted Joe Thomas #1 last year. Were I the Lions GM then, I would have grabbed Joe Thomas over Calvin Johnson, and were I Al Davis' corpse, I would have grabbed Thomas over JaMarcus Rusell (actually, were I Al Davis, I might draft a kicker before Russell, but I digress.) I think drafting an lineman is ALMOST never a bad idea, since you gain depth, even if the player doesn't start for you right away. At any given point, there are 8-9 linemen on the field (offense and defense), representing 36% of ALL players, but's its always the skill positions that are considered the best picks.
2) I would almost NEVER draft a running back in the first round. Keeping with my philosophy that successful teams start with their line, I also view the running back position as interchangeable. Put an average running back (Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Sammy Morris, Shaun Alexander of 2006) behind a good offensive line, and you get 1,000 yards. Put an elite running back behind a sieve offensive line (Stephen Jackson last year springs to mind), and they will produce, but will not be game changers. Add to that the fact that due to wear and tear, running backs have a MUCH shorter life span than other skill positions, and I would almost always pass on selecting a running back in the first round.
3) I would NEVER draft a wide receiver in the first round. This isn't an overreaction to the failures of my predecessor drafting WR's something like 74 years in a row. WR, more than any other position besides QB, comes with a steep learning curve. Calvin Johnson, widely considered one of the most pro-ready WRs to ever come out of the draft, had less than 50 catches last year, which was considered a GOOD year for rookie WRs. I think the sky is the limit for CJ, and I have already labelled him a core player, but great WRs don't make teams Super Bowl champs on their own. History is littered with WRs that have been picked late, taken some time to develop, and become superstars. Look at today's top WR list;
Terrell Owens (3rd rounder)
Anquan Boldin (2nd rounder(did have monster rookie year, I know))
Brandon Marshall (4th rounder)
Marques Colston (243rd rounder)
Reggie Wayne (LATE 1st rounder(not saying you CAN'T find a good player there))
Is that everyone, of course not, and did I selectively chose my players? Of course! But for every Randy Moss, or Larry Fitzgerald one tosses out, you can come right back with a Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Charles Rogers or Michael Clayton (another flash in the pan). First round WRs demand huge contracts, and are usually non-productive their first 2-3 years. You get better return out of the fat-boy positions. Look, obviously, if I felt the next Jerry Rice was there, I would draft him, but I would choose a guy I thought would be the next John Hannah over him, if he were there at the same spot too.
4) QB arm strength is wildly overrated. Scouts seem to have a nerdish fascination with the size of a mans biceps. A pitcher than can throw 100mph will get MANY more chances than a guy who clocks out at 88. A QB that can throw the ball through the uprights from his knees will get more chances than a guy who can't. A guy taken at 21-23 is not who he will be, but who he IS. Players can develop arm strength (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning), but they can not develop the ability to stay cool under pressure. I would take Chad Pennington over almost any other QB in the league, and could get a prospect like him a lot later than a guy like JaMarcus Russell or Kyle Boller.
5) You should play the system that suits your players, and sign the players that suits your system. Jason David was a serviceable Tampa 2 corner in Indianapolis, and a complete and total disaster in New Orleans. Jonathan Vilma was a tackling machine when the Jets played the 4-3, not so much when they stood one of those linemen up. On day 1, you need to play with the system that best suits your players, and over time, you need to find players that play best in the system you intend to run. That is, I think, one of the keys to the Patriots success, is that they bring in guys with limitations, and then don't ask them to do things they are limited in. They don't ask Junior Seau to follow tight ends all over the field. They don't ask Richard Seymour to become Dwight Freeney. The Pats win because they put their players in the right situations, and don't try to force square pegs into round holes.
Those are some simple rules I think every team should follow, and how I would build a team.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Week 4 RB Rankings
Here are my rankings for RBs for week 4 action;
1) Marshawn Lynch
2) LaDanian Tomlinson
3) Clinton Portis
4) Marion Barber
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Reggie Bush
7) Frank Gore
8) Adrian Peterson
9) Jamal Lewis
10) Steven Jackson
11) Michael Turner
12) Jonathan Stewart
13) Chris Perry
14) Steve Slaton
15) Selvin Young
16) Larry Johnson
17) Ryan Grant
18) Matt Forte
19) Earnest Graham
20) Darren McFadden
21) Edgerrin James
22) Pierre Thomas
23) Thomas Jones
24) Micheal Pittman
25) Chris Johnson
I have Lynch ahead of LT, because I see San Diego getting up 30-6 at the half, and resting LT. At least that's my hope, as I go against him in my league. It's Bush v Gore 2008, and Bush narrowly comes out ahead this time again. New Orleans has a decent run defense, and I could see Bush catching 10 passes and rushing for another 60-70 yards. Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup this week. That game might actually feature a combined running back line that will look like this; 42/57/0. Ugly stuff, but you still have to start him. Selvin Young should see plenty of action against the woeful Chiefs. Larry Johnson stinks, and if you are Mike Shannahan, who are you scheming for, Larry Johnson, or Damon Huard? McFadden is running against a surprisingly mortal San Diego defense, I see a huge variability in that game. Chris Johnson could see a lot of full backfields, and catch 5-8 passes this weekend, making him worth a look against an otherwise insanely tough run defense.
1) Marshawn Lynch
2) LaDanian Tomlinson
3) Clinton Portis
4) Marion Barber
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Reggie Bush
7) Frank Gore
8) Adrian Peterson
9) Jamal Lewis
10) Steven Jackson
11) Michael Turner
12) Jonathan Stewart
13) Chris Perry
14) Steve Slaton
15) Selvin Young
16) Larry Johnson
17) Ryan Grant
18) Matt Forte
19) Earnest Graham
20) Darren McFadden
21) Edgerrin James
22) Pierre Thomas
23) Thomas Jones
24) Micheal Pittman
25) Chris Johnson
I have Lynch ahead of LT, because I see San Diego getting up 30-6 at the half, and resting LT. At least that's my hope, as I go against him in my league. It's Bush v Gore 2008, and Bush narrowly comes out ahead this time again. New Orleans has a decent run defense, and I could see Bush catching 10 passes and rushing for another 60-70 yards. Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup this week. That game might actually feature a combined running back line that will look like this; 42/57/0. Ugly stuff, but you still have to start him. Selvin Young should see plenty of action against the woeful Chiefs. Larry Johnson stinks, and if you are Mike Shannahan, who are you scheming for, Larry Johnson, or Damon Huard? McFadden is running against a surprisingly mortal San Diego defense, I see a huge variability in that game. Chris Johnson could see a lot of full backfields, and catch 5-8 passes this weekend, making him worth a look against an otherwise insanely tough run defense.
Week 4 QB Rankings
Guys,
Here are my rankings, and pithy banter to follow, for QBs this week;
1) Donovan McNabb
2) Drew Brees
3) Jay Cutler
4) Kurt Warner
5) Tony Romo
6) Carson Palmer
7) JT O'Sullivan
8) Philip Rivers
9) Trent Edwards
10) Jason Campbell
11) Jake Delhomme
12) Brett Favre
13) David Garrard
14) Derek Anderson
15) Kerry Collins
I have McNabb here for two reasons; first, I think Westbrook will be out, and they will run less as a result. Secondly, you CAN'T run on Chicago last week, but their secondary is vulnerable. I could see Andy Reid dialing up 50 passes, which will translate into LOTS of yards and two or three scores. Brees has a decent matchup, but he loses Shockey. I love Jay Cutler's matchup, since Kansas City can't stop anyone, but therein lies the problem. I think Denver is going to get a quick lead, and run the ball twenty-five times in the second half. Cutler could average like four fantasy points per pass, and still only get three attempts on the game. Kansas City is that bad against the run. Rivers has exploded so far this year, but Oakland does have a pretty good pass defense, outside of DeAngelo Hall, and you run on the Raiders as much as you can anyways. Jason Campbell is a guy I have alot of hopes for, and Dallas hasn't stopped anyone this year. I could see him as the #1 guy as easily as I could see him in this spot, but I try to order by safest production, not highest upside. Joseph Addai couldn't run on Minnesota, do you really think Lendale White is going to? Kerry Collins sneaks on the list.
Here are my rankings, and pithy banter to follow, for QBs this week;
1) Donovan McNabb
2) Drew Brees
3) Jay Cutler
4) Kurt Warner
5) Tony Romo
6) Carson Palmer
7) JT O'Sullivan
8) Philip Rivers
9) Trent Edwards
10) Jason Campbell
11) Jake Delhomme
12) Brett Favre
13) David Garrard
14) Derek Anderson
15) Kerry Collins
I have McNabb here for two reasons; first, I think Westbrook will be out, and they will run less as a result. Secondly, you CAN'T run on Chicago last week, but their secondary is vulnerable. I could see Andy Reid dialing up 50 passes, which will translate into LOTS of yards and two or three scores. Brees has a decent matchup, but he loses Shockey. I love Jay Cutler's matchup, since Kansas City can't stop anyone, but therein lies the problem. I think Denver is going to get a quick lead, and run the ball twenty-five times in the second half. Cutler could average like four fantasy points per pass, and still only get three attempts on the game. Kansas City is that bad against the run. Rivers has exploded so far this year, but Oakland does have a pretty good pass defense, outside of DeAngelo Hall, and you run on the Raiders as much as you can anyways. Jason Campbell is a guy I have alot of hopes for, and Dallas hasn't stopped anyone this year. I could see him as the #1 guy as easily as I could see him in this spot, but I try to order by safest production, not highest upside. Joseph Addai couldn't run on Minnesota, do you really think Lendale White is going to? Kerry Collins sneaks on the list.
The Fantasy Men Trade Roy Williams
As a continuation of our dismantling of the Detroit Lions, The Fantasy Men are trading WR Roy Williams to the Philadelphia Eagles, in exchange for Philadelphia's 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft. With Tom Brady out for the year, and the Colts looking pretty bad, Philadelphia has to be considered a top six or seven favorite to win the Super Bowl this year. This move solidifies their offense, and gives Donovan McNabb a level-headed superstar wide receiver that he has never had. On the Lions end, this move gives us an extra first day draft pick next year, that could be packaged with our own second rounder to acquire an extra first rounder, or used to add depth. For all his talent, Roy Williams doesn't help us get towards our long term goal, targeting three years down the road. Mike Furrey will be elevated to the starting role opposite Calvin Johnson, one of the legitimate building blocks of this team. We don't think he will perform as well as the #2 as he would out of the slot, but we aren't so much interested in winning games this year.
To fill the vacated roster spot, we will sign recently released WR Mark Bradley to a three year deal.
To fill the vacated roster spot, we will sign recently released WR Mark Bradley to a three year deal.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
The Fantasy Men Trade Jon Kitna
Our first move with the Detroit Lions will be to trade away quarterback Jon Kitna. Few teams in the league are interested in trading for a QB mid-season, but fortunately there is one team in our division with bad management, and a glaring need at the QB spot; the Minnesota Vikings. So we are trading Jon Kitna to the Minnesota Vikings for a 5th round pick in the 2009 draft. At this time, we are also exploring the possibility of trading WR Roy Williams to the Philadelphia Eagles or Seattle Seahawks (or maybe both, if we can confuse them!). Details will be forthcoming, if a move happens.
Jon Kitna is a serviceable enough quarterback in the right offense, and with a good enough offensive line, he can still be a weapon. Kitna has passed for over 3,000 yards six times in his career, and has 20+ TDs 3 times. Kitna turns a mediocre Vikings team into the best team in the NFC north, and a team with a decent chance of winning the NFC. In Detroit, he is just preventing Dan Orlovsky and/or Drew Stanton from playing, and is probably only bringing Detroit from 3-13 to 4-12 or so. Kitna is, by all accounts, a smart player, and should be able to pick up the Vikings offense by the end of next month or so, and get a chance to start eight games or so before the playoffs. This move will also lengthen the career of one Adrian Peterson, the biggest asset the Vikings have, by removing defenders from the box, and turning 8 man fronts into six and seven man fronts. Kitna is also a better fit for a Martz, let's get the QB killed offense, then he would be for the power offense that we will be installing in Detroit.
Note that Jon Kitna's projected cap hit for 2008 is $5.875mm. Per my understanding of the rules, we will absorb the full amount this year, and erase him from the books next season. Given that we are not signing anyone this year of note, that won't be a problem.
Jon Kitna is a serviceable enough quarterback in the right offense, and with a good enough offensive line, he can still be a weapon. Kitna has passed for over 3,000 yards six times in his career, and has 20+ TDs 3 times. Kitna turns a mediocre Vikings team into the best team in the NFC north, and a team with a decent chance of winning the NFC. In Detroit, he is just preventing Dan Orlovsky and/or Drew Stanton from playing, and is probably only bringing Detroit from 3-13 to 4-12 or so. Kitna is, by all accounts, a smart player, and should be able to pick up the Vikings offense by the end of next month or so, and get a chance to start eight games or so before the playoffs. This move will also lengthen the career of one Adrian Peterson, the biggest asset the Vikings have, by removing defenders from the box, and turning 8 man fronts into six and seven man fronts. Kitna is also a better fit for a Martz, let's get the QB killed offense, then he would be for the power offense that we will be installing in Detroit.
Note that Jon Kitna's projected cap hit for 2008 is $5.875mm. Per my understanding of the rules, we will absorb the full amount this year, and erase him from the books next season. Given that we are not signing anyone this year of note, that won't be a problem.
Breaking News: Matt Millen Out in Detroit
Matt Millen is finally getting the can for his efforts over the years.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3606294
I want everyone to know that this in no way relates to my adoption of the Lions as a reclamation project. When the Lions contact me, and bring me in for interviews, I will of course share information with our loyal reader.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3606294
I want everyone to know that this in no way relates to my adoption of the Lions as a reclamation project. When the Lions contact me, and bring me in for interviews, I will of course share information with our loyal reader.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
UH OHH Where did all my WR go?
This post come out of my own wrong doing for my team. I have been filling my roster with you talented RBs, and having trade away one WR, then loosing Nate Burleson to IR. I find myself looking for WR in and around the 15% owned department on ESPN to try and fill in on bye weeks. Here is a list of some of the players I feel that can be a good grab if you are looking to fill a WR spot to get you through bye weeks.
Chansi Stuckey NYJ
16.6% owned
Stuckey is the 3rd WR on the Jets, but has been a great target for Farve. He has caught a TD in each of the last 3 games. he also has very favorable match-ups against bad defenses, in the coming weeks. BUf is the only top 10 defense that the Jets will see in the next 7 weeks.
ARI, Bye, CIN, @OAK, KC,@ BUF, STL
Brandon Lloyd CHI
8.0% owned
Broke out in week 3 for 6 rec for 124 yards and 1 TD. His number looks good and not really any bad match-ups. the only knock I have for him is that he plays for CHI, but with Forte running the ball so well, it might open up the passing game for him to catch some more balls.
PHI. @ DET, @ ATL, MIN, Bye, DET, TEN
SEA
Bobby Engram
40.2
Deion Branch
18.6
Both are expected to return week 5 and both can be nice surprises depending on how they have recover from their injuries. A lot of owners has held on to Engram waiting for his return and if you are in a league with an owner like that you would will most likely have better options in your FA pool then what you see on this list. Branch has yet to live up to his big contract and I don't think he will, but he is still a solid WR His recovery from his knee injury should make it harder for him to that contract. Don't get me wrong i do think Branch is a good WR, but SEA gave up way too much and is paying too much for him. If you need a WR to fill in a few weeks and if one of them is healthy ,they should be able to do the job for you.
BYE, @ NYG, GB, @TB, @ SF, PHI, @ MIA
BUF
Josh Reed
1.2
Roscoe Parrish
4.3
Josh Reed is the number 2 WR for the Bills but Parrish has been better the better WR at finding the end-zone. Reed will get you point with more receptions and yardage. Parrish does kick and punt returns, and score more touchdowns. this is another pretty much a coin flip between the two in my book. If you are looking at the 2 of them I would consider how your leagues scores for the WR position. If you reward highly for return yard then go with Parrish, if you are high on receptions and yards go with Reed.
@STL, @ARI, bye, SD, @MIA, NYJ, @NE
None of the players above will bring your team to the promise land, but to get you though the dog days of the bye weeks. they have the ability to step in and give you a few points and maybe win a game or two for you, but most likely they wont and you still loose.
Chansi Stuckey NYJ
16.6% owned
Stuckey is the 3rd WR on the Jets, but has been a great target for Farve. He has caught a TD in each of the last 3 games. he also has very favorable match-ups against bad defenses, in the coming weeks. BUf is the only top 10 defense that the Jets will see in the next 7 weeks.
ARI, Bye, CIN, @OAK, KC,@ BUF, STL
Brandon Lloyd CHI
8.0% owned
Broke out in week 3 for 6 rec for 124 yards and 1 TD. His number looks good and not really any bad match-ups. the only knock I have for him is that he plays for CHI, but with Forte running the ball so well, it might open up the passing game for him to catch some more balls.
PHI. @ DET, @ ATL, MIN, Bye, DET, TEN
SEA
Bobby Engram
40.2
Deion Branch
18.6
Both are expected to return week 5 and both can be nice surprises depending on how they have recover from their injuries. A lot of owners has held on to Engram waiting for his return and if you are in a league with an owner like that you would will most likely have better options in your FA pool then what you see on this list. Branch has yet to live up to his big contract and I don't think he will, but he is still a solid WR His recovery from his knee injury should make it harder for him to that contract. Don't get me wrong i do think Branch is a good WR, but SEA gave up way too much and is paying too much for him. If you need a WR to fill in a few weeks and if one of them is healthy ,they should be able to do the job for you.
BYE, @ NYG, GB, @TB, @ SF, PHI, @ MIA
BUF
Josh Reed
1.2
Roscoe Parrish
4.3
Josh Reed is the number 2 WR for the Bills but Parrish has been better the better WR at finding the end-zone. Reed will get you point with more receptions and yardage. Parrish does kick and punt returns, and score more touchdowns. this is another pretty much a coin flip between the two in my book. If you are looking at the 2 of them I would consider how your leagues scores for the WR position. If you reward highly for return yard then go with Parrish, if you are high on receptions and yards go with Reed.
@STL, @ARI, bye, SD, @MIA, NYJ, @NE
None of the players above will bring your team to the promise land, but to get you though the dog days of the bye weeks. they have the ability to step in and give you a few points and maybe win a game or two for you, but most likely they wont and you still loose.
The Fantasy Men's Detroit Lions Challenge
Like Jigsaw, from the Saw series of movies, I want to play a game. Only this time, no one will get strung up in razor wire, or stuck in a blast furnace, expect possibly Matt Millen. I have decided that this blog will adopt the Detroit Lions, as kind of our Ameri-Cares charity case. I will lay out the situation, detail who I would draft were I the Lions GM, and explain which free agents I would target. A couple of rules will apply;
1) All free agents will have to be signed for whatever contract they agreed to. I understand that it would probably take millions more to convince someone to come to Detroit (lovely city, by the way), but for purposes of our "study" we have to make some simplifying assumptions.
2) The proposed trades I will make have to at least have some feasible basis in reality. A kicker for the next twenty-three years worth of Indy's first round picks would probably not work, but Roy Williams for the Eagles second next year, might.
That's it.
1) All free agents will have to be signed for whatever contract they agreed to. I understand that it would probably take millions more to convince someone to come to Detroit (lovely city, by the way), but for purposes of our "study" we have to make some simplifying assumptions.
2) The proposed trades I will make have to at least have some feasible basis in reality. A kicker for the next twenty-three years worth of Indy's first round picks would probably not work, but Roy Williams for the Eagles second next year, might.
That's it.
Monday, September 22, 2008
He Gets Paid for This?
Eric Karabell, writing on ESPN.com about Ronnie Brown's value going forward, unleashed this stink-nugget of information;
"He should remain a capable fantasy asset, a No. 2 running back most weeks I would think, but I'd rather have (Michael) Turner. Nothing against Brown, but he will have good and bad moments in 2008 as he needs to overcome at times his quarterback, his recovering knee and a potential timeshare of carries."
Fair enough, I'm not ready to anoint Ronnie Brown this year's LT of 2006, but let's look at his preferences.
1) "Needs to overcome his quarterback." I LOVE Chad Pennington. As a Pats fan, there are two quarterbacks in the league that have scared me since 2001 (prior, EVERY quarterback in the league scared me, cause we were starting Drew Bledsoe, but I digest); Peyton Manning and Chad Pennington. We saw why yesterday. The Pats D had a bad scheme, but Pennington made every throw asked of him, and he gets the ball where he wants it to go. 17 of 20 is a great line, regardless of whether he can throw the 42 yard out route that bad scouts seem to fall in love with. Chad Pennington is in rarefied air with his career completion percentage, and has played well against the Pats. On the other hand, you have...Matt Ryan, a rookie. Did I miss something here?
2) "Potential timeshare of carries." Sure, Ronnie Brown is splitting carries with Ricky Williams. Backing up Michael Turner is Jerious Norwood, the guy that has averaged 6 yards a carry over the last couple of seasons, while Ricky Williams has been averaging 6 spliffs a week.
There are other issues working in Ronnie Browns favor that Karabell doesn't even mention.
1) (Or should it be 3?) Miami has a SOLID offensive line. Samson Satele was a revelation last year at center, and in the draft, the Dolphins added the guy I thought should have been the #1 pick (I know he went #1, I am saying good pick), in Jake Long. He looks like as complete a player as last year's star rookie left tackle (see Thomas, Joe) or 2006's star rookie LT (see McNeill, Marcus). Vernon Carey is also an effective run blocker.
2) Ronnie Brown catches passes. Lots of passes. In 38 career games, Ronnie Brown has 110 catches. I am no mathlete, but I think that works out to about 2.8947368421 catches per game, for an average of 8.7 yards per catch. Michael Turner, in 62 games, has 13 catches, for an average (again, no mathlete here), of, I think, 0.20967741935 catches per game, with a 6.4 yard per catch average. In terms even Eric Karabell could understand, Ronnie Brown averages ALMOST 14 times as many catches per game as Michael Turner. I'm not touting Ronnie Brown as the second coming of Reggie Bush (he's better than Bush, trust me), but those 2.89... catches for 8.7 yards per catch works out to 25 yards per game in the air. That's 2, or 2.5 points (plus more if you are in a PPR league) a game in Ronnie Brown's "coolness account" that Micheal Turner doesn't have. Plus, the ability to catch passes means that Ronnie Brown will be on the field on 3rd and 7 situations, when Michael Turner will be thinking about the next drive.
3) Miami faces a better run schedule. Here is a smattering of Ronnie Brown's weak opponents over the coming two months; Texans, Broncos, Seahawks, Raiders, Pats, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs. The Falcons face; ...the Raiders and Broncos. Their other weak run-D opponent comes in week 17, against the Rams, so they aren't counted here. In the meantime, he gets to run against Tampa Bay again, Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Green Bay, Eagles and the Vikings in the week 16 championship game. Given that slate of absolutely BRUTAL schedules, why exactly is Eric Karabell telling you to sell high on a guy like Brown?
The fact is, when healthy, Ronnie Brown is among the most talented backs in the game. In terms of pure talent, I rank them as something like this;
Adrian Peterson
LaDanian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Ronnie Brown
Clinton Portis
And that is arguable, of course, but he might even have more TALENT than LT. His production has not matched LT's, but LT has had the luxury of running behind a great offensive line with a good QB, and a great TE and serviceable receivers. Miami has had a bad line, until the last 15 games, with Chris Chambers as the only WR on the roster capable of running a route, with guys that sound like porn stars (AJ Feely, Cleo Lemon, John Beck) manning the QB position.
The fact is, Ronnie Brown is a GREAT running back, who might finally get the attention he deserves after his explosion against the Patriots. Hold on to Ronnie Brown unless the offer blows you away, just make sure you keep your fingers crossed.
"He should remain a capable fantasy asset, a No. 2 running back most weeks I would think, but I'd rather have (Michael) Turner. Nothing against Brown, but he will have good and bad moments in 2008 as he needs to overcome at times his quarterback, his recovering knee and a potential timeshare of carries."
Fair enough, I'm not ready to anoint Ronnie Brown this year's LT of 2006, but let's look at his preferences.
1) "Needs to overcome his quarterback." I LOVE Chad Pennington. As a Pats fan, there are two quarterbacks in the league that have scared me since 2001 (prior, EVERY quarterback in the league scared me, cause we were starting Drew Bledsoe, but I digest); Peyton Manning and Chad Pennington. We saw why yesterday. The Pats D had a bad scheme, but Pennington made every throw asked of him, and he gets the ball where he wants it to go. 17 of 20 is a great line, regardless of whether he can throw the 42 yard out route that bad scouts seem to fall in love with. Chad Pennington is in rarefied air with his career completion percentage, and has played well against the Pats. On the other hand, you have...Matt Ryan, a rookie. Did I miss something here?
2) "Potential timeshare of carries." Sure, Ronnie Brown is splitting carries with Ricky Williams. Backing up Michael Turner is Jerious Norwood, the guy that has averaged 6 yards a carry over the last couple of seasons, while Ricky Williams has been averaging 6 spliffs a week.
There are other issues working in Ronnie Browns favor that Karabell doesn't even mention.
1) (Or should it be 3?) Miami has a SOLID offensive line. Samson Satele was a revelation last year at center, and in the draft, the Dolphins added the guy I thought should have been the #1 pick (I know he went #1, I am saying good pick), in Jake Long. He looks like as complete a player as last year's star rookie left tackle (see Thomas, Joe) or 2006's star rookie LT (see McNeill, Marcus). Vernon Carey is also an effective run blocker.
2) Ronnie Brown catches passes. Lots of passes. In 38 career games, Ronnie Brown has 110 catches. I am no mathlete, but I think that works out to about 2.8947368421 catches per game, for an average of 8.7 yards per catch. Michael Turner, in 62 games, has 13 catches, for an average (again, no mathlete here), of, I think, 0.20967741935 catches per game, with a 6.4 yard per catch average. In terms even Eric Karabell could understand, Ronnie Brown averages ALMOST 14 times as many catches per game as Michael Turner. I'm not touting Ronnie Brown as the second coming of Reggie Bush (he's better than Bush, trust me), but those 2.89... catches for 8.7 yards per catch works out to 25 yards per game in the air. That's 2, or 2.5 points (plus more if you are in a PPR league) a game in Ronnie Brown's "coolness account" that Micheal Turner doesn't have. Plus, the ability to catch passes means that Ronnie Brown will be on the field on 3rd and 7 situations, when Michael Turner will be thinking about the next drive.
3) Miami faces a better run schedule. Here is a smattering of Ronnie Brown's weak opponents over the coming two months; Texans, Broncos, Seahawks, Raiders, Pats, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs. The Falcons face; ...the Raiders and Broncos. Their other weak run-D opponent comes in week 17, against the Rams, so they aren't counted here. In the meantime, he gets to run against Tampa Bay again, Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Green Bay, Eagles and the Vikings in the week 16 championship game. Given that slate of absolutely BRUTAL schedules, why exactly is Eric Karabell telling you to sell high on a guy like Brown?
The fact is, when healthy, Ronnie Brown is among the most talented backs in the game. In terms of pure talent, I rank them as something like this;
Adrian Peterson
LaDanian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Ronnie Brown
Clinton Portis
And that is arguable, of course, but he might even have more TALENT than LT. His production has not matched LT's, but LT has had the luxury of running behind a great offensive line with a good QB, and a great TE and serviceable receivers. Miami has had a bad line, until the last 15 games, with Chris Chambers as the only WR on the roster capable of running a route, with guys that sound like porn stars (AJ Feely, Cleo Lemon, John Beck) manning the QB position.
The fact is, Ronnie Brown is a GREAT running back, who might finally get the attention he deserves after his explosion against the Patriots. Hold on to Ronnie Brown unless the offer blows you away, just make sure you keep your fingers crossed.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Week 3 RB Rankings
Guys,
Here is my take on the RB's in Week 3.
1) Frank Gore
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Brandon Jacobs
5) Clinton Portis
6) Brian Westbrook
7) LaDanian Tomlinson*
8) Marion Barber
9) Willie Parker
10) Reggie Bush
11) Joseph Addai
12) Stephen Jackson
13) Julius Jones
14) Chris Johnson
15) Maurice Jones Drew
16) Michael Turner
17) Darren McFadden*
18) Kevin Smith
19) Matt Forte
20) Thomas Jones
21) Lendale White
22) Ryan Grant*
23) Willis McGahee
24) Sammy Morris
25) Larry Johnson
26) Jonathan Stewart
27) Earnest Graham
28) Edgerrin James
29) Selvin Young
30) Fred Taylor
Tough matchups for a bunch of otherwise very good running backs (Westbrook v Pittsburgh, Forte v Tampa Bay, Stewart v Minnesota, Graham v Chicago...). Gore has a dream matchup, and should be relied on heavily to keep Detroit off the field (!?) and to wear down that already crummy defense. The asterisks on LT and McFadden and Grant mean they are serious injury risks, due to two turf toes and a bum hammy, respectively. Watch the Sunday morning shows before plugging them in. I don't like Reggie Bush as a RB, but I love him as a WR in the backfield, which he will be this week against Denver. I would have put Pierre Thomas in these rankings, but I expect New Orleans to fall behind early, and for Thomas to get no more than 10 carries. He can catch (as he proved last year in Week 17), but if you are going to have a running back out there catching passes, I think Bush is the better option, and should see many more snaps. I know Jacksonville is missing two guards, but right now, Indianapolis is looking like the Indy of old, AND Bob Sanders is on an involuntary vacation, so Steve and I could probably go for a buck fifty against these guys. I like McFadden against Buffalo, but I would like to see more 4 and 5 yard carries, rather than a stat line of 2, 1, 0, 1, -2, 19, 3, 1, 32, 0, -3. Earnest Graham and Jonathan Stewart are two talented RB's, drawing the hardest pair of run defenses in the league. I have Stewart one spot higher, because I could see Carolina jumping up 21 to 9 at the half and running the ball 30 times in the second half. One of those might get broken for a long one. Selvin Young goes against a (surprisingly) decent run defense, and I would rather move the ball in 20 yard chunks than 2-3 yard chunks. All the same, maybe HE gets the garbage goal line carries instead of Pittman this week. I think I may have Fred Taylor too low, but MJD gets the goal line carries that are the key to fantasy production.
Note that if LaDanian Tomlinson is limited, Darren Sproles becomes the #7 projected back. Sproles is obviously not the talent LT is, but if LT is starting, I still think he will only get 12-16 carries and a few looks. If LT is limited, Sproles should get something like 15-20 carries, so Sproles were turn more looks into about the same points (not counting special teams production).
Here is my take on the RB's in Week 3.
1) Frank Gore
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Brandon Jacobs
5) Clinton Portis
6) Brian Westbrook
7) LaDanian Tomlinson*
8) Marion Barber
9) Willie Parker
10) Reggie Bush
11) Joseph Addai
12) Stephen Jackson
13) Julius Jones
14) Chris Johnson
15) Maurice Jones Drew
16) Michael Turner
17) Darren McFadden*
18) Kevin Smith
19) Matt Forte
20) Thomas Jones
21) Lendale White
22) Ryan Grant*
23) Willis McGahee
24) Sammy Morris
25) Larry Johnson
26) Jonathan Stewart
27) Earnest Graham
28) Edgerrin James
29) Selvin Young
30) Fred Taylor
Tough matchups for a bunch of otherwise very good running backs (Westbrook v Pittsburgh, Forte v Tampa Bay, Stewart v Minnesota, Graham v Chicago...). Gore has a dream matchup, and should be relied on heavily to keep Detroit off the field (!?) and to wear down that already crummy defense. The asterisks on LT and McFadden and Grant mean they are serious injury risks, due to two turf toes and a bum hammy, respectively. Watch the Sunday morning shows before plugging them in. I don't like Reggie Bush as a RB, but I love him as a WR in the backfield, which he will be this week against Denver. I would have put Pierre Thomas in these rankings, but I expect New Orleans to fall behind early, and for Thomas to get no more than 10 carries. He can catch (as he proved last year in Week 17), but if you are going to have a running back out there catching passes, I think Bush is the better option, and should see many more snaps. I know Jacksonville is missing two guards, but right now, Indianapolis is looking like the Indy of old, AND Bob Sanders is on an involuntary vacation, so Steve and I could probably go for a buck fifty against these guys. I like McFadden against Buffalo, but I would like to see more 4 and 5 yard carries, rather than a stat line of 2, 1, 0, 1, -2, 19, 3, 1, 32, 0, -3. Earnest Graham and Jonathan Stewart are two talented RB's, drawing the hardest pair of run defenses in the league. I have Stewart one spot higher, because I could see Carolina jumping up 21 to 9 at the half and running the ball 30 times in the second half. One of those might get broken for a long one. Selvin Young goes against a (surprisingly) decent run defense, and I would rather move the ball in 20 yard chunks than 2-3 yard chunks. All the same, maybe HE gets the garbage goal line carries instead of Pittman this week. I think I may have Fred Taylor too low, but MJD gets the goal line carries that are the key to fantasy production.
Note that if LaDanian Tomlinson is limited, Darren Sproles becomes the #7 projected back. Sproles is obviously not the talent LT is, but if LT is starting, I still think he will only get 12-16 carries and a few looks. If LT is limited, Sproles should get something like 15-20 carries, so Sproles were turn more looks into about the same points (not counting special teams production).
Week 3 WR Rankings
Guys,
Here is my take on the WR options for Week 3. WR's are MUCH harder to predict than RB's and QB's, I think. Look at last week's Arizona-Miami game. Larry Fitzgerald couldn't be covered, and he finished with 6 catches for 150 yards or so. Anquan Boldin ALSO couldn't be covered, and he got the 3 TD's in the deal. Did anyone think that Anquan Boldin played 2 or 3 times better in that game than Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is the better receiver, as good as Boldin is, and one week's touchdown bonanza shouldn't alter that fact.
1) Terrell Owens
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Plaxico Burress
4) Calvin Johnson
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Larry Fitzgerald
7) Randy Moss
8) Andre Johnson
9) Anquan Boldin
10) Steve Smith
11) Roy Williams
12) Santonio Holmes
13) Donald Driver
14) T.J Houshmandzadeh
15) Dwayne Bowe
16) Braylon Edwards
17) Wes Welker
18) Greg Jennings
19) Hines Ward
20) Jerricho Cotchery
21) Torry Holt
22) Chad Johnson
23) Roddy White
24) DeSean Jackson
25) Santana Moss
26) Isaac Bruce
27) Eddie Royal
28) Anthony Gonzalez
29) Patrick Crayton
30) Matt Jones
Greg Jennings v Donald Driver is a classic case of the situation I illustrated above. Last year, Driver had over 80 catches, Jennings has 50, but since Jennings had the harder to predict touchdowns, he is ranked more highly than Driver? I still think Driver is the better receiver, and this ranking reflects that. Owens will be the #1 WR every week until someone proves they can supplant him. Brandon Marshall shouldn't have 18 catches this week (that's really going out on a limb!), but he, Royal, Stokely and Scheffler could combine for 30. Calvin Johnson has been unbelievable these first two weeks, and I think Nate Clements will be covering Roy Williams, hence the large disparity between their rankings. Randy Moss could get open against Miami, but I don't think New England will need to take that many chances down field. He could serve as the league's best decoy for the second straight week. Steve Smith draws a dream matchup this week, and could be eager to earn his teammates forgiveness, other than that guy he punched out in the preseason. Braylon Edwards has been the victim of a bad matchup and bad weather. He drops a lot of passes, but he is freakishly talented, and Baltimore CAN'T be run on. Someone has to catch all those passes from J.T O'Sullivan, and I think it's going to be a combo of Isaac Bruce and Vernon Davis. Davis is a good blocker, and Detroit doesn't have the pass rush that would require Davis to stay in and block against. He could be free to roam for 8-12 targets this week. Marvin Harrison doesn't make my top 30, since I think that Gonzalez has ALREADY supplanted him as Peyton's favorite guy not named Reggie Wayne.
Here is my take on the WR options for Week 3. WR's are MUCH harder to predict than RB's and QB's, I think. Look at last week's Arizona-Miami game. Larry Fitzgerald couldn't be covered, and he finished with 6 catches for 150 yards or so. Anquan Boldin ALSO couldn't be covered, and he got the 3 TD's in the deal. Did anyone think that Anquan Boldin played 2 or 3 times better in that game than Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is the better receiver, as good as Boldin is, and one week's touchdown bonanza shouldn't alter that fact.
1) Terrell Owens
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Plaxico Burress
4) Calvin Johnson
5) Reggie Wayne
6) Larry Fitzgerald
7) Randy Moss
8) Andre Johnson
9) Anquan Boldin
10) Steve Smith
11) Roy Williams
12) Santonio Holmes
13) Donald Driver
14) T.J Houshmandzadeh
15) Dwayne Bowe
16) Braylon Edwards
17) Wes Welker
18) Greg Jennings
19) Hines Ward
20) Jerricho Cotchery
21) Torry Holt
22) Chad Johnson
23) Roddy White
24) DeSean Jackson
25) Santana Moss
26) Isaac Bruce
27) Eddie Royal
28) Anthony Gonzalez
29) Patrick Crayton
30) Matt Jones
Greg Jennings v Donald Driver is a classic case of the situation I illustrated above. Last year, Driver had over 80 catches, Jennings has 50, but since Jennings had the harder to predict touchdowns, he is ranked more highly than Driver? I still think Driver is the better receiver, and this ranking reflects that. Owens will be the #1 WR every week until someone proves they can supplant him. Brandon Marshall shouldn't have 18 catches this week (that's really going out on a limb!), but he, Royal, Stokely and Scheffler could combine for 30. Calvin Johnson has been unbelievable these first two weeks, and I think Nate Clements will be covering Roy Williams, hence the large disparity between their rankings. Randy Moss could get open against Miami, but I don't think New England will need to take that many chances down field. He could serve as the league's best decoy for the second straight week. Steve Smith draws a dream matchup this week, and could be eager to earn his teammates forgiveness, other than that guy he punched out in the preseason. Braylon Edwards has been the victim of a bad matchup and bad weather. He drops a lot of passes, but he is freakishly talented, and Baltimore CAN'T be run on. Someone has to catch all those passes from J.T O'Sullivan, and I think it's going to be a combo of Isaac Bruce and Vernon Davis. Davis is a good blocker, and Detroit doesn't have the pass rush that would require Davis to stay in and block against. He could be free to roam for 8-12 targets this week. Marvin Harrison doesn't make my top 30, since I think that Gonzalez has ALREADY supplanted him as Peyton's favorite guy not named Reggie Wayne.
Week 3 QB Rankings
One mans take on the week 3 QB rankings. As a matter of process, I probably attach more importance to the matchup than the typical fantasy guy, so these rankings may differ slightly (or substantially!) from other rankings. But I suppose, if I just copied Yahoo's rankings, you could save your time and go there instead. Here they are in descending order;
1) Jay Cutler
2) Tony Romo
3) Philip Rivers
4) Kurt Warner
5) Peyton Manning
6) Aaron Rodgers
7) Drew Brees
8) Donovan McNabb
9) Jake Delhomme
10) J.T O'Sullivan
11) Ben Roethlisberger
12) Matt Cassel
13) Eli Manning
14) Jon Kitna
15) Matt Hasselbeck
Jay Cutler has been a stud so far, and he draws a very favorable matchup this week with the Saints. Philip Rivers ranking is based on the assumption that LT will be limited to 10 touches. He has 4 options in the passing game, and draws a below average defense in the Jets, AND they are 0-2. I have Delhomme ranked where he is, because Minnesota's anticipated pass rushing demons have not shown up through two weeks. Jared Allen was brought in to hurry opposing quarterbacks, and although he picked up a sack last week, I did not see him putting consistent pressure on Manning. Until the Vikings get pressure with their front four, their secondary will continue to be picked on. Also, NO ONE can run on the Vikings, and with Steve Smith back, I could see John Fox dialing up 50 pass attempts. Matt Cassel has a favorable matchup, but against a team as bad as the Dolphins, I can't see Cassel attempting more than 25 passes. He will be an effective REAL quarterback, minimizing turnovers and completing the safe play, but not a good FANTASY QB. Matt Hasselbeck is slipping with every receiver that suffers a season ending injury, but he is still drawing the Rams this week, and should still be able to put up a TD or two.
1) Jay Cutler
2) Tony Romo
3) Philip Rivers
4) Kurt Warner
5) Peyton Manning
6) Aaron Rodgers
7) Drew Brees
8) Donovan McNabb
9) Jake Delhomme
10) J.T O'Sullivan
11) Ben Roethlisberger
12) Matt Cassel
13) Eli Manning
14) Jon Kitna
15) Matt Hasselbeck
Jay Cutler has been a stud so far, and he draws a very favorable matchup this week with the Saints. Philip Rivers ranking is based on the assumption that LT will be limited to 10 touches. He has 4 options in the passing game, and draws a below average defense in the Jets, AND they are 0-2. I have Delhomme ranked where he is, because Minnesota's anticipated pass rushing demons have not shown up through two weeks. Jared Allen was brought in to hurry opposing quarterbacks, and although he picked up a sack last week, I did not see him putting consistent pressure on Manning. Until the Vikings get pressure with their front four, their secondary will continue to be picked on. Also, NO ONE can run on the Vikings, and with Steve Smith back, I could see John Fox dialing up 50 pass attempts. Matt Cassel has a favorable matchup, but against a team as bad as the Dolphins, I can't see Cassel attempting more than 25 passes. He will be an effective REAL quarterback, minimizing turnovers and completing the safe play, but not a good FANTASY QB. Matt Hasselbeck is slipping with every receiver that suffers a season ending injury, but he is still drawing the Rams this week, and should still be able to put up a TD or two.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Filene's Basement Fantasy Specials
These are guys that are owned in less than 1.0% of ESPN.com fantasy league's. Think about that, out of every one thousand leagues, some of which surely have eighteen teams and start eleven receivers, these guys are owned in less than ten.
Slim pickings? You bet. But hey, if you have to shop in these clearance bins, you're already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
WR Dane Looker (0.1% owned)
Looker is (for now) the #2 WR in St. Louis. The Ram's offense is historically inept year to date, but would you rather start a bad team's #2 or a great teams #5? Really, the #5? Well, err, in that case...
RB Heath Evans (0.1% owned)
With Cassel under center, you have to figure the Pats to run more in the red-zone. Evans is always a possibility there, and if you can get a junk touchdown from your #6 RB, I think that's a win most weeks.
TE Garrett Mills (0.2% owned)
Is he twice the player Heath Evans is, or does his mom play a lot of fantasy football? Mills was the centerpiece of the ultimate non-issue pissing contest between Bill Belichick and the Vikings. Visanthe Shiancoe can't block, catch, run or figure a 15% tip without an adding machine, so you have to figure Mills will get a small number of targets each week. Especially if the Vikings decide to abandon this whole "passing game" thing, and just run AP and Chester Taylor 75 times a week.
Miles Austin (0.4% owned)
Now we are getting into the luxury end. Austin will be Dallas' #3 WR for the time being, and that makes him worth a shot in a VERY deep league.
Jalen Parmele (0.6% owned)
The rookie is the #3 RB in Miami, behind the oft-injured Ronnie Brown, and the oft-baked Ricky Williams. He MIGHT be pressed into significant action at some point this year, and if you are scraping this low, the slight chance of busting a big run should be enough for you.
Michael Clayton (0.6% owned)
He has almost completely disappeared since his rookie season, but Joey Galloway is dinged up, and the Bucs are developing a good O-line to keep whoever is under center upright most days. He is worth potentially thinking about possibly looking into the idea of maybe picking up.
Slim pickings? You bet. But hey, if you have to shop in these clearance bins, you're already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
WR Dane Looker (0.1% owned)
Looker is (for now) the #2 WR in St. Louis. The Ram's offense is historically inept year to date, but would you rather start a bad team's #2 or a great teams #5? Really, the #5? Well, err, in that case...
RB Heath Evans (0.1% owned)
With Cassel under center, you have to figure the Pats to run more in the red-zone. Evans is always a possibility there, and if you can get a junk touchdown from your #6 RB, I think that's a win most weeks.
TE Garrett Mills (0.2% owned)
Is he twice the player Heath Evans is, or does his mom play a lot of fantasy football? Mills was the centerpiece of the ultimate non-issue pissing contest between Bill Belichick and the Vikings. Visanthe Shiancoe can't block, catch, run or figure a 15% tip without an adding machine, so you have to figure Mills will get a small number of targets each week. Especially if the Vikings decide to abandon this whole "passing game" thing, and just run AP and Chester Taylor 75 times a week.
Miles Austin (0.4% owned)
Now we are getting into the luxury end. Austin will be Dallas' #3 WR for the time being, and that makes him worth a shot in a VERY deep league.
Jalen Parmele (0.6% owned)
The rookie is the #3 RB in Miami, behind the oft-injured Ronnie Brown, and the oft-baked Ricky Williams. He MIGHT be pressed into significant action at some point this year, and if you are scraping this low, the slight chance of busting a big run should be enough for you.
Michael Clayton (0.6% owned)
He has almost completely disappeared since his rookie season, but Joey Galloway is dinged up, and the Bucs are developing a good O-line to keep whoever is under center upright most days. He is worth potentially thinking about possibly looking into the idea of maybe picking up.
Introductions
My name is Matt, and I am creating this site with my friend Steve. We are going to try and offer common-sense fantasy advice, and won't try and blow any smoke about insider knowledge of the game, pretend we know what timing routes are, or EVER be wrong about ANY selection. All predictions in this blog will be fully insured by AIG (for now), against any possibility of diminished performance. We will try and post weekly podcasts of questions we each have and hear during the week. Good luck and thanks for checking out the site!
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