A post on ColdHardFootballFacts.com asked a question, that four months ago, would have bordered on heresy here in the Northeast; "Should the Pats consider trading Tom Brady?"
The immediate, gut reaction of every New England fan would be "No". Imagine though, if some team (New Orleans in this example), called up and said; "We will give you Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas and our first round pick in the next six drafts." THAT would be jumped on by the same percentage of New England fans.
Clearly, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, we know what we are willing to do, now we are just haggling over the price.
To that end, I have prepared a list of POTENTIAL trade partners, and what I would be willing to accept for Tom Brady. The following caveats apply;
1) We are ignoring cap accelerations.
2) We will NOT trade Tom Brady to any team in the AFC East.
3) Our asking price for the rest of the AFC would be higher than if we shipped him to an NFC team.
To that end, the list of teams that would have realistic interest in Tom Brady;
San Francisco
Detroit
Kansas City
Minnesota
Carolina
Tennessee
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Chicago
Philadelphia is on the list since it seems apparent that Donovan McNabb and the city need a separation. Tampa Bay has Jeff Garcia, but he is old.
I omitted Oakland, which SHOULD be on the list, due to the fact that they still have JaMarcus Russell, couldn't trade him, and couldn't possibly pay two quarterbacks a combined $30mm or so next year.
Here, then, are my terms;
San Francisco: Patrick Willis and three first round picks. Willis and Mayo could man the middle of the Patriots 3-4 defense for the next 10 years, and might be the first linebacker combo in history to combine for 400 tackles in a season. The first round draft picks reflect the fact that there aren't too may other good players in San Fran that I would be interested in. I know Clements is pretty good, and Gore is a very good running back, but there is only one RB in the league I would want to get in a trade (more on that later). Other than that, I don't think their roster has the depth we would need to receive in a trade.
Detroit: Calvin Johnson, Leigh Bodden and two first round picks. Megatron would add a third legitimately great receiver to the offense, and would ensure that on any given play, two of New Englands receiving options should be open. Leigh Bodden was a good cornerback in Cleveland, we are betting that a change of scenery would do him wonders. The first round picks are a little lower than for San Fran, because they may well both be #1 overall picks.
Kansas City: Dwayne Bowe and 4 first round picks. I don't trust the Tyler Thigpen experiment, and Bowe is the only player from Kansas City that I think provides a meaningful upgrade over New England. I understand Tony Gonzalez is better than Ben Watson, but he is also much older.
Minnesota: Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson and a first round pick. Adrian Peterson is breath-taking to behold, and the thought of him running for MY team (other than my fantasy team) is heart warming. Steve Hutchinson is one of the best guards in this league, and would provide a pass-blocking (and health) upgrade over Stephen Neal, who could be moved to right tackle, or put into a rotation. The first round pick would be about mid-round as it appears now, and could be used for the best available player in the secondary.
Carolina: Jon Beason, Steve Smith and Johnathan Stewart. Another linebacker to plug in the middle, and two offensive upgrades. I didn't include Julius Peppers, because I don't think he would be as effective as an end in a 3-4 defense. If New England played the 4-3, the trade would be Peppers, Stewart and a first or something.
Tennessee: Cortland Finnegan, Chris Johnson and Michael Roos. This trade, above all others, I think provides the best return to the New England Patriots. Finnegan provides an immediate upgrade to the secondary, the biggest area of weakness on this team, allowing Ellis Hobbs to cover opposing #2s and Deltha O'Neal to go to hell. Chris Johnson is the two way threat New England thought they were getting when they drafted Laurence Maroney, and would also help my fantasy team, since the looming (and I mean looming, he is huge) specter of LenWhale White vulturing CJ's touchdowns would be erased. Roos has started every game since being drafted, and should make the Pro Bowl this year, providing an upgrade over Nick Kaczur. Three areas of need are ALL strengthened in this trade.
Philadelphia: Shawn Andrews and a ton of draft picks. I am really not too high on anyone in Phildelphia (I guess bringing Asante back would be great, but I still don't know). I guess the ton of draft picks allows the team to stockpile younger talent, but I couldn't see this working.
Tampa Bay: This is another team that doesn't have options at positions that I think New England needs. I guess something like every pick for the next four or five years.
Chicago: Ugh, another team that I don't really see matching up well with New England. Lance Briggs of course springs immediately to mind, as does Urlacher, but no way do they give up both. I guess Briggs and draft picks, and a ton of them.
I would be very excited to get a package like the one I detailed from Tennessee, especially if I could get draft picks involved in the mix too. New England has glaring needs in the defensive secondary, and has depth concerns in the trenches. That trade allows them to cover most of their needs, and to get young players involved in their plans for the future. Their window will run as long as their successful drafts, and plugging in players of Finnegan, Roos and Johnson's abilities may stretch that window a bit further.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Shame on You, Michael Fabiano
Look, I have NEVER pretended to watch every game. I don't tell you how a team handled a particular receiver, or how fast a certain running back looked in his three carries. I base my analysis off of numbers and trends, i.e; I don't start ANY #1 WR against Oakland, because I know what the production of receivers lined up against Nnamdi Asomugha is like.
Apparently, Michael Fabiano watches game film for every game, every week. Puh-lease! Writing in his column this week, Fabiano uncorks this blow-hard gem;
"Should I bench Chris Johnson this week? He's done nothing over the past two games and faces the Jets' tough run defense in Week 12. I can replace him with Tim Hightower or Marshawn Lynch. -- F. Classen, Denmark
M.F.: Johnson has seen his numbers fall over the last two weeks, as defenses have focused on stopping the run and challenged Kerry Collins to beat them."
Really? Johnson's numbers have declined because defenses have focused on stopping the run?
Are you sure it doesn't have to do with the fact that in one game, he played against the Chicago Bears, and their hold-every-RB-but-Adrian-Peterson-to-2-YPC-defense? And in the other game, Tennessee only got to run 57 offensive plays, with 16 of them running plays by LenWhale White and Kerry Collins? That leaves 41 plays, of which Johnson carried 17 times and caught four passes, for a total of 88 yards, hardly shut down.
Kerry Collins threw a pick on the opening drive, which cost Johnson potentially 3-6 carries. On the second drive, LenWhale got a 2 yard carry on 1st and 10 from the Jaguars 20, followed by an incomplete pass, and a short screen pass, field goal. A completion (or sequential runs on second down) and maybe Johnson gets 1-2 more plays on this drive. On the third drive, two LenWhale runs resulted in 6 yards, followed by another Kerry Collins incompletion on third down, another chance for Johnson to get carries forgone by a failure to convert third downs. On Tennessee's 4th drive, Johnson had a pair of four yard carries followed by ANOTHER incompletion on 3rd and 2 (why are you passing there?). Boom goes the punt, and out the window go another potential group of plays. On the next drive, a 3 yard run by Johnson, an incomplete pass and a false start lead to a 3rd and 12, with, you guessed it, ANOTHER Kerry Collins incompletion. Boom goes the punt, yadi yadi yada. The next drive, Johnson had 3 straight runs, and could not convert the third down. To this point, I think Tennessee is like 1-8 on 3rd downs. The punt is away, and Tennessee does not get the ball again in the half.
On the Titans first drive of the second half, a long return is followed by a couple of short passes, an 11 yard Chris Johnson run, and another 8 yard pass, with another Chris Johnson conversion. Johnson gets 2 yards to the 13, and the next play is a touchdown pass. On the NEXT drive, CJ has a 7 yard run on 1st down (come on Fabiano, I thought they were loading the box), followed by the 56 yard scoring pass to Justin Gage.
The fourth quarter emerges much the same. A team struggles on third down, but converts a bunch on long plays on first and second downs. The Titans were ONE FOR TWELVE on 3rd down conversions for the game, and THAT is why CJ struggled in this game (granted one was his fault). Kerry Collins completed three passes on third down all game, and two of them went for negative yardage. When you can't convert 3rd downs, your running backs see the field alot less than they should, and THAT is why CJ struggled. Give him 8 more carries at his average production, and you have 95 rushing yards to go with 24 receiving (assuming he didn't catch anything else). All of a sudden, we are talking about 120 all purpose yards.
Michael Fabiano can BS all he wants about schemes and whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that the Titans were dreadful on 3rd down, and that hurt CJ's touches a bunch in this game. Kerry Collins completed his passes on 1st and 2nd down, and they were long, flukish plays for the big scores.
He is a tough play this week against a pretty good Jets defense, but it has NOTHING to do with the Jets loading the box, and everything to do with what the NUMBERS tell you the Jets do to opposing running backs.
Apparently, Michael Fabiano watches game film for every game, every week. Puh-lease! Writing in his column this week, Fabiano uncorks this blow-hard gem;
"Should I bench Chris Johnson this week? He's done nothing over the past two games and faces the Jets' tough run defense in Week 12. I can replace him with Tim Hightower or Marshawn Lynch. -- F. Classen, Denmark
M.F.: Johnson has seen his numbers fall over the last two weeks, as defenses have focused on stopping the run and challenged Kerry Collins to beat them."
Really? Johnson's numbers have declined because defenses have focused on stopping the run?
Are you sure it doesn't have to do with the fact that in one game, he played against the Chicago Bears, and their hold-every-RB-but-Adrian-Peterson-to-2-YPC-defense? And in the other game, Tennessee only got to run 57 offensive plays, with 16 of them running plays by LenWhale White and Kerry Collins? That leaves 41 plays, of which Johnson carried 17 times and caught four passes, for a total of 88 yards, hardly shut down.
Kerry Collins threw a pick on the opening drive, which cost Johnson potentially 3-6 carries. On the second drive, LenWhale got a 2 yard carry on 1st and 10 from the Jaguars 20, followed by an incomplete pass, and a short screen pass, field goal. A completion (or sequential runs on second down) and maybe Johnson gets 1-2 more plays on this drive. On the third drive, two LenWhale runs resulted in 6 yards, followed by another Kerry Collins incompletion on third down, another chance for Johnson to get carries forgone by a failure to convert third downs. On Tennessee's 4th drive, Johnson had a pair of four yard carries followed by ANOTHER incompletion on 3rd and 2 (why are you passing there?). Boom goes the punt, and out the window go another potential group of plays. On the next drive, a 3 yard run by Johnson, an incomplete pass and a false start lead to a 3rd and 12, with, you guessed it, ANOTHER Kerry Collins incompletion. Boom goes the punt, yadi yadi yada. The next drive, Johnson had 3 straight runs, and could not convert the third down. To this point, I think Tennessee is like 1-8 on 3rd downs. The punt is away, and Tennessee does not get the ball again in the half.
On the Titans first drive of the second half, a long return is followed by a couple of short passes, an 11 yard Chris Johnson run, and another 8 yard pass, with another Chris Johnson conversion. Johnson gets 2 yards to the 13, and the next play is a touchdown pass. On the NEXT drive, CJ has a 7 yard run on 1st down (come on Fabiano, I thought they were loading the box), followed by the 56 yard scoring pass to Justin Gage.
The fourth quarter emerges much the same. A team struggles on third down, but converts a bunch on long plays on first and second downs. The Titans were ONE FOR TWELVE on 3rd down conversions for the game, and THAT is why CJ struggled in this game (granted one was his fault). Kerry Collins completed three passes on third down all game, and two of them went for negative yardage. When you can't convert 3rd downs, your running backs see the field alot less than they should, and THAT is why CJ struggled. Give him 8 more carries at his average production, and you have 95 rushing yards to go with 24 receiving (assuming he didn't catch anything else). All of a sudden, we are talking about 120 all purpose yards.
Michael Fabiano can BS all he wants about schemes and whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that the Titans were dreadful on 3rd down, and that hurt CJ's touches a bunch in this game. Kerry Collins completed his passes on 1st and 2nd down, and they were long, flukish plays for the big scores.
He is a tough play this week against a pretty good Jets defense, but it has NOTHING to do with the Jets loading the box, and everything to do with what the NUMBERS tell you the Jets do to opposing running backs.
Lions on the Clock
As part of my research for our Dynasty Fantasy Football league, I have begun (began, begin, beganned?) to look into mock drafts for 2009. It is important to find rookie skill position players, or offensive lineman that will be drafted high to teams with YOUR skill position players. Many of the mocks I have seen have the Detroit Lions picking a QB 1st overall. I can assure you, under our management, that if the Lions lose out, and "win" the 1st pick in the 2009 draft, they will NOT be selecting a quarterback. A trade is possible, but right now we are biased towards Michael Oher. As noted before, I think winning teams build on the foundations of solid line play, and a rookie QB doesn't address that.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Boldin or Colston
A co-worker was recently proposed a trade of either Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston for Jay Cutler (the co-worker would be the recipient of Cutler).
Near universal consensus would say that Boldin is the MUCH better option, but I told him that were I making the trade, I would give away Boldin over Colston (and this is not an insignificant point, I have both receivers on my one fantasy team.
Both Colston and Boldin are elite talents when healthy, and Colston missed a month and a half with a broken thumb, and was held without a reception in his first game back from injury. In his most recent game, he had 7 catches for 140 yards, so I think it is safe to say that he has recovered from the thumb.
My logic, or basis, for saying that I would keep Colston over Boldin is due to the inherent unpredictability of wide receiver touchdowns. Boldin has been the #1 WR in value under my fantasy league's scoring format (I think we can say he is no more than top 5 in ANY realistic scoring format). Colston, obviously would be lucky to get into the top 75, given that he has played like 3 real games.
What concerns me about Boldin is a regression to the mean happening during the season. Last week is a good example, when he had two TDs against the 49ers. His second TD "catch" was actually a screen pass, where Boldin caught the ball on the five yard line, knifed inside and under one defender, and came down 0.000000000000000001 inches inside of the end zone. In fact, his first TD was a great individual effort as well, as he juked one defender out, and ran past (or between) two more. These were great individual plays, but are also two very CLOSE plays. Imagine he comes down 0.0000000000000001 inches OUTSIDE of the end zone, or the defender juked on the first score bumps him and slows him down. Now Boldin has 5 catches for 50 yards (or something) and NO scores. Not that it did happen, but it JUST AS EASILY could have happened.
The example I bring up is of Reggie Williams from last season, when he had 38 catches and 10 TDs. In some formats, he would be a top 5 or top 10 receiver (depending on TD weight). This season he is on pace for 36 catches and 2 TDs. A lot of fantasy owners drafted him expecting 50-60 catches and 10 more TDs, and are being disappointed.
When I look at running backs, I look at TDs, since a running back that gets goal line carries can have his value highly inflated (LenWhale White, I am looking at you!). Receiver TDs however, I don't value as highly as catches and yards.
Give me a receiver with 100 catches and 2 scores over a guy with 50 catches and 9-10 scores, and I think more often than not, in the NEXT season, that 100 catch guy will VASTLY outperform the 50 catch gentleman.
In a roundabout way, I am less optimistic that Anquan Boldin will put up the points he has put up for the rest of the season, and I fear an in-season regression to the mean.
Near universal consensus would say that Boldin is the MUCH better option, but I told him that were I making the trade, I would give away Boldin over Colston (and this is not an insignificant point, I have both receivers on my one fantasy team.
Both Colston and Boldin are elite talents when healthy, and Colston missed a month and a half with a broken thumb, and was held without a reception in his first game back from injury. In his most recent game, he had 7 catches for 140 yards, so I think it is safe to say that he has recovered from the thumb.
My logic, or basis, for saying that I would keep Colston over Boldin is due to the inherent unpredictability of wide receiver touchdowns. Boldin has been the #1 WR in value under my fantasy league's scoring format (I think we can say he is no more than top 5 in ANY realistic scoring format). Colston, obviously would be lucky to get into the top 75, given that he has played like 3 real games.
What concerns me about Boldin is a regression to the mean happening during the season. Last week is a good example, when he had two TDs against the 49ers. His second TD "catch" was actually a screen pass, where Boldin caught the ball on the five yard line, knifed inside and under one defender, and came down 0.000000000000000001 inches inside of the end zone. In fact, his first TD was a great individual effort as well, as he juked one defender out, and ran past (or between) two more. These were great individual plays, but are also two very CLOSE plays. Imagine he comes down 0.0000000000000001 inches OUTSIDE of the end zone, or the defender juked on the first score bumps him and slows him down. Now Boldin has 5 catches for 50 yards (or something) and NO scores. Not that it did happen, but it JUST AS EASILY could have happened.
The example I bring up is of Reggie Williams from last season, when he had 38 catches and 10 TDs. In some formats, he would be a top 5 or top 10 receiver (depending on TD weight). This season he is on pace for 36 catches and 2 TDs. A lot of fantasy owners drafted him expecting 50-60 catches and 10 more TDs, and are being disappointed.
When I look at running backs, I look at TDs, since a running back that gets goal line carries can have his value highly inflated (LenWhale White, I am looking at you!). Receiver TDs however, I don't value as highly as catches and yards.
Give me a receiver with 100 catches and 2 scores over a guy with 50 catches and 9-10 scores, and I think more often than not, in the NEXT season, that 100 catch guy will VASTLY outperform the 50 catch gentleman.
In a roundabout way, I am less optimistic that Anquan Boldin will put up the points he has put up for the rest of the season, and I fear an in-season regression to the mean.
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