He Gets Paid for This?

Eric Karabell, writing on ESPN.com about Ronnie Brown's value going forward, unleashed this stink-nugget of information;

"He should remain a capable fantasy asset, a No. 2 running back most weeks I would think, but I'd rather have (Michael) Turner. Nothing against Brown, but he will have good and bad moments in 2008 as he needs to overcome at times his quarterback, his recovering knee and a potential timeshare of carries."

Fair enough, I'm not ready to anoint Ronnie Brown this year's LT of 2006, but let's look at his preferences.

1) "Needs to overcome his quarterback." I LOVE Chad Pennington. As a Pats fan, there are two quarterbacks in the league that have scared me since 2001 (prior, EVERY quarterback in the league scared me, cause we were starting Drew Bledsoe, but I digest); Peyton Manning and Chad Pennington. We saw why yesterday. The Pats D had a bad scheme, but Pennington made every throw asked of him, and he gets the ball where he wants it to go. 17 of 20 is a great line, regardless of whether he can throw the 42 yard out route that bad scouts seem to fall in love with. Chad Pennington is in rarefied air with his career completion percentage, and has played well against the Pats. On the other hand, you have...Matt Ryan, a rookie. Did I miss something here?

2) "Potential timeshare of carries." Sure, Ronnie Brown is splitting carries with Ricky Williams. Backing up Michael Turner is Jerious Norwood, the guy that has averaged 6 yards a carry over the last couple of seasons, while Ricky Williams has been averaging 6 spliffs a week.

There are other issues working in Ronnie Browns favor that Karabell doesn't even mention.

1) (Or should it be 3?) Miami has a SOLID offensive line. Samson Satele was a revelation last year at center, and in the draft, the Dolphins added the guy I thought should have been the #1 pick (I know he went #1, I am saying good pick), in Jake Long. He looks like as complete a player as last year's star rookie left tackle (see Thomas, Joe) or 2006's star rookie LT (see McNeill, Marcus). Vernon Carey is also an effective run blocker.

2) Ronnie Brown catches passes. Lots of passes. In 38 career games, Ronnie Brown has 110 catches. I am no mathlete, but I think that works out to about 2.8947368421 catches per game, for an average of 8.7 yards per catch. Michael Turner, in 62 games, has 13 catches, for an average (again, no mathlete here), of, I think, 0.20967741935 catches per game, with a 6.4 yard per catch average. In terms even Eric Karabell could understand, Ronnie Brown averages ALMOST 14 times as many catches per game as Michael Turner. I'm not touting Ronnie Brown as the second coming of Reggie Bush (he's better than Bush, trust me), but those 2.89... catches for 8.7 yards per catch works out to 25 yards per game in the air. That's 2, or 2.5 points (plus more if you are in a PPR league) a game in Ronnie Brown's "coolness account" that Micheal Turner doesn't have. Plus, the ability to catch passes means that Ronnie Brown will be on the field on 3rd and 7 situations, when Michael Turner will be thinking about the next drive.

3) Miami faces a better run schedule. Here is a smattering of Ronnie Brown's weak opponents over the coming two months; Texans, Broncos, Seahawks, Raiders, Pats, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs. The Falcons face; ...the Raiders and Broncos. Their other weak run-D opponent comes in week 17, against the Rams, so they aren't counted here. In the meantime, he gets to run against Tampa Bay again, Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Green Bay, Eagles and the Vikings in the week 16 championship game. Given that slate of absolutely BRUTAL schedules, why exactly is Eric Karabell telling you to sell high on a guy like Brown?

The fact is, when healthy, Ronnie Brown is among the most talented backs in the game. In terms of pure talent, I rank them as something like this;

Adrian Peterson
LaDanian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Ronnie Brown
Clinton Portis

And that is arguable, of course, but he might even have more TALENT than LT. His production has not matched LT's, but LT has had the luxury of running behind a great offensive line with a good QB, and a great TE and serviceable receivers. Miami has had a bad line, until the last 15 games, with Chris Chambers as the only WR on the roster capable of running a route, with guys that sound like porn stars (AJ Feely, Cleo Lemon, John Beck) manning the QB position.

The fact is, Ronnie Brown is a GREAT running back, who might finally get the attention he deserves after his explosion against the Patriots. Hold on to Ronnie Brown unless the offer blows you away, just make sure you keep your fingers crossed.