"You're All That We Have, That's Why We Won't Use You"

The Hazean has released a list of his most over-valued receivers in 2009. Number one on the list is Dwayne Bowe, a member in good standing of Matt Calvey Inc., and a resident binky of this blog.

Hazean's commentary, in its entirety;
"He put up great numbers considering the anemic nature of the Chiefs offense last year, and did it with a smodge-podge of quarterbacks. When Tyler Thigpen is chucking the rock 30 times per game and you still are pulling down fat fantasy stat lines, your hype is sure to go through the roof.
And that is what Bowe’s stock has done. Now with a more competent — at least from the early returns — quarterback behind center, Bowe is expected to elevate last year’s numbers. But that will be hard to do with no Tony Gonzalez to keep pass defenses honest and hardly a semblance of a running game. Bowe should have a good year for sure, but top-12 territory is a stretch."

Let's undress this, piece by piece, as all undressing should be done...

1) "He put up great numbers, considering the anemic nature of the Chiefs offense..."
Regardless of the wisdom of trading for Matt Cassel, or whether or not he deserved the extension he received from the Chiefs, I think we can all agree, Matt Cassel > Tyler Thigpen. Let's call this a net plus for Bowe's catch percentage of one percent.

2) "But that will be hard to do with no Tony Gonzalez..."
According to The Fantasy Men's Law of Only Being Able to Throw to One Receiver Per Play, on each pass play, only one receiver can be thrown the ball, if a forward throw occurs. Tony Gonzalez was thrown the ball 121 times last year, a prodigious amount of targets for a TE (and he deserved every one of them, by the way). With no Tony Gonzalez this year, what happens to those 121 pass attempts? If you guessed, "A ton of them will be going to Dwayne Bowe", you are ready to move to 201. Matt Cassel is not going to call a play with the tight end as the primary option, realize it is not Tony Gonzalez, and throw the ball to the center. He will look for OTHER options to fill the void left by Gonzalez, and Bowe stands ready to benefit from this increased targeting. Let's assume he receives one third of these targets, rounding down to forty.

Now, I MIGHT grant that defenses will focus extra attention on Dwayne Bowe this season (whatever the hell that cliched concept means; do you really think the defense assigned eleven guys to follow Gonzo and screamed at Thigpen that Bowe wasn't open?), and I will say, for the sake of counter-weighting my argument, that this extra "attention", drops Bowe's catch rate four percent.

Now, what does all our black-magic do to Bowe's production? Last season, he was targeted 142 times, catching the ball 59% of the time, for a total of 86 catches, 1,022 yards and 7 TDs.

If we assume everything above, he will now be targeted 182 times, catching the ball 56% of the time, which translates to; 102 catches, for 1,213 yards and 8 TDs. Is that an unreasonable stat line for a guy that has more catches in his first two seasons than Reggie Wayne had in his first THREE years (with a much, much better QB and a much better "ground game", which is apparently important for receivers). Simply put, Dwayne Bowe's career production in his first two years puts him into elite company, and it is not a stretch to say in ten years, he could be a legitimate candidate for the Hall of Fame, based on his early career trends.

Pass-catching, for a receiver, is the intersection of two events, a target, and a catch. If your team is trailing, you will be targeted more. If your QB is better, you will catch more of those targets. If your running game is cruddy, you will also be targeted more. If your defense is crap, you will be trailing more late in the game, and you will be targeted more. All of these apply for Bowe this season, as he enters his magical third season in the league. That stat line above would not surprise me in the least. I would grab Bowe in the second round in any format.